There are a lot of great stories about Nolan Arenado's competitiveness, with video to back it up. Like the time he took on the tarp in San Francisco to catch a foul pop. "I can't think of a better play I've ever seen on a popup," Giants broadcaster Duane Kuiper wrote in a text last week. "Equally impressive was the throw he made when he was lying on the tarp. ... Maybe the best ever [popup catch], although I'm sure people in New York would argue that Derek Jeter's was the best ever."
Or how about the many times he has thrown from his backside? I got to watch from the side as he demonstrated his arm strength to Alex Rodriguez, firing bullets to first base from one knee. But maybe the best example of Arenado's drive came in an informal shooting competition the Rockies held during spring training. When Arenado launched the long winner, he went absolutely wild, and his teammates went wild with him. Lord knows how fun it would be if Arenado was a regular visitor to postseason baseball, and what he would do if he won the World Series.
He'll soon have the power to work closer to that -- but in order to do so, Arenado might have to walk away from a whole lot of money. It will be a binary choice: He can either get paid at a pre-pandemic superstar rate or he can dramatically improve his chances to participate in playoff or World Series games. But he probably can't have both.
Arenado has talked often about how he wants to win, but the greatest impediment right now is not the Colorado Rockies, who have won one playoff game in Arenado's professional career and haven't won a playoff series since 2007. The biggest problem for Arenado is not general manager Jeff Bridich, with whom Arenado has not seen eye to eye. The most significant hurdle standing between Arenado and a happy postseason dogpile is his contract.
Arenado is slated to make $199 million over the next six seasons, and under the terms of his contract, he has an opt-out on that deal after the 2021 season. The rate of his deal moving forward -- about $33 million annually -- reflected the relatively prosperous times in which he signed the contract, early in 2019. If he had passed on the Rockies' offer and opted for free agency in the fall of '19, the way Anthony Rendon did, he probably would've gotten a deal similar to the $245 million contract Rendon got with the Angels. (Keep in mind that the Dodgers bid for Rendon, as well.)
But that was all before the coronavirus manifested and the sport was shut down, and while the owners and players' union continue to argue over the degree of the financial impact of having a truncated season and no fans in the stands -- and perhaps two seasons, depending on how 2021 plays out -- the salaries for free agents are in retreat this winter.
If Arenado opts out of his current contract at the end of the 2021 season, at age 30, and joins a decorated free-agent class that might contain Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Javier Baez and Trevor Story, he might well have a very difficult time replicating the money currently guaranteed to him. This will especially be true if his offensive performance doesn't rebound in 2021. At the moment, his 2020 showing -- an adjusted OPS+ of 84 in 48 games, below league average -- will likely be treated as an outlier by any interested teams.
I asked evaluators what Arenado would get in the open market if he were a free agent right now, and the estimates I heard were in the range of $100 million to $125 million. If those educated guesses reflected the industry view, that would mean the Rockies might be asked by any team interested in Arenado to eat a staggering portion of that $199 million he is owed.
Let's assume, for argument's sake, that Arenado bounces back and contends for the National League MVP award in 2021, finishing in the top 10 of the voting for a sixth time. Let's assume he bashes his way to another 40 home runs and hits over .300. Even then, he still might not match the dollars in his current deal because of how salaries have rolled back in the new financial landscape -- and because of so much uncertainty about the next labor deal and whether or not there could be an MLB vs. players' association war that extends into the early months of 2022.
Theoretically, Arenado could try to do what Manny Ramirez did in 2008 and be so disruptive on a daily basis that the Rockies would eat a lot of salary to get rid of him with his contract intact. But that seems just about out of the question, given the respect for teammates he's demonstrated in his career. Arenado isn't going to sabotage his team the way Ramirez did the '08 Red Sox.
It seems more likely that he'll have to make peace with a simple choice. If he wants to have consistent opportunities to reach the postseason with a team like the Dodgers, the club for which he rooted as a kid, he'll need to opt out of his deal and walk away from a lot of potential earnings. If he wants the full value of the contract he earned, he'll have to remain in Colorado for at least a couple of more years, likely missing the playoffs.
Maybe baseball's money situation will be more stabilized by then, with a full return to revenue growth, and maybe in a few years it'll be easier for a team to take on his contract.
A new chapter in Philly
• When the news broke about Dave Dombrowski's emergence with the Philadelphia Phillies, social media exploded with negative reviews, citing Dombrowski's history of trading prospects and fostering a menu of contracts too long and too expensive. On the day the Tigers signed Miguel Cabrera to the massive contract that runs through 2023 -- Detroit still owes Cabrera, long past his prime, $92 million -- execs with other teams were shocked. Similarly, there was surprise when the Red Sox signed Chris Sale to a big extension in the spring of 2019 despite some real signs of physical erosion in the fall of 2018.
"But to some degree, I think Dombo gets a bad rap," one of his peers said. "Yes, he trades prospects -- but how many of them turned out to be really good? Look at the deals he's put together. Look at the teams he's put together. He's good at putting together a team. He's not afraid."
In Detroit, Dombrowski executed a three-team swap that yielded a young pitcher whose delivery scared other teams -- Max Scherzer. He and his staff dealt for relative unknowns in Doug Fister and Anibal Sanchez, who became stars with the Tigers. When he traded David Price and Yoenis Cespedes in his last days with Detroit, those moves yielded pitchers Michael Fulmer and Matthew Boyd. "That's a pretty good return for two players who were two months from free agency," the executive said.
In order to get Sale, the Red Sox built a deal around Yoan Moncada -- who has been good for the White Sox, but far from a superstar. To land Craig Kimbrel, Dombrowski gave up Manuel Margot, who hasn't really developed into an impact player. Dombrowski's moves were made to position the Red Sox as World Series contenders -- and indeed, Boston won the World Series in 2018.
Dombrowski has a lot of experience, and a lot of success, with a lot of trades in which he picked the right players and was aggressive at the right time. For the Phillies to land him at the end of a bizarre process, one executive said, "is probably better than they deserved."
The presumption among other teams is that the Phillies will spend more than they otherwise would have before they brought Dombrowski on board. "Because you can't hire him and then tell him he's got nothing to work with," one exec said.
• As I spoke with Phillies owner John Middleton last Sunday afternoon, days before the Dombrowski hiring, and he declared unequivocally that Zack Wheeler would not be traded, I could hear the sound of a message dropping in from another high-ranking executive with another team -- another confirmation that the Phillies' front office had indicated to other teams it was willing to listen to offers for the right-hander.
In the end, the information that really matters the most is Middleton's assertion that he would not trade Wheeler under any circumstance, because for a Phillies fan base that is concerned about the club's direction, at least they know that the rotation will be fronted by stars Aaron Nola and Wheeler. The full rebuild that Phillies fans fear is not going to happen; Dombrowski will aim whatever resources he has available to fill holes, like those in the Philadelphia bullpen.
But the Wheeler episode fully revealed the predictable fractures in the team's baseball operations. It's been almost a decade since the Phillies most recently finished over .500, and even after repeatedly finishing near the bottom of the standings and picking near the top of the draft, the team is still thin on talent, still seemingly way behind the Braves, the class of the NL East. Earlier in this offseason, Matt Klentak was removed from the position of general manager but not fired outright. Before the Dombrowski hiring, Andy MacPhail led baseball operations, but with one year left on his deal and no indication that he'll stay beyond 2021, he's a lame duck. Other teams say that assistant GM Ned Rice has been the point person to head up a lot of the work that Klentak had done in the past. Scott Proefrock, another assistant, has also been making calls.
After Middleton's strident denials that there had been any conversations about Wheeler, Ken Rosenthal's sources confirmed what I have been told by many teams -- that yes, the Phillies did indicate an openness to Wheeler offers. And Ken is right: It would make sense for the Phillies to at least explore this, to see if they might best exploit whatever financial flexibility they have to build a better roster. For example, they could flip Wheeler for cheaper, useful pieces, and could theoretically use the Wheeler money in an effort to re-sign All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto. A possible Wheeler deal is one of many chess moves available to them. That Middleton and MacPhail indicated they had no knowledge of the Wheeler overtures when they issued their flat denials of what other teams knew to be a reality was a stark indication of disconnect.
Now that Middleton settled on Dombrowski, the owner must empower Dombrowski fully, embrace his plan, follow his advice, to avoid the kind of dysfunction exposed last weekend.
• Rival evaluators have had fun with Middleton's comment that he wouldn't trade Zack Wheeler even if he were offered Babe Ruth. "If they wind up trading Wheeler someday," one American League official said, "you don't want to be the prospect who lands in Philly on that deal because the headline writes itself: PHILLIES TRADE FOR SOMEONE BETTER THAN BABE RUTH."
News from around the major leagues
• It's pretty rare, one general manager noted last month, that any player is so clearly the best at his respective position in the way Realmuto ranks among catchers; Realmuto is first, and in the eyes of evaluators, there really isn't a close second. This might make it easier for Realmuto, a free agent, to wait through the sluggish early days of the market. "If he waits," one evaluator said, "it's not going to hurt him, and it might help him."
It's possible that by late January or early February -- or even late February -- that the coronavirus outlook will be better, with vaccines distributed and teams anticipating days of fans in the stands, and if Realmuto remains unsigned then, somebody will likely jump at him. "Any team that looks at him will have no problem displacing their [projected] catcher to make room for him," the evaluator said. "It'll just come down to who steps up with the money. It's a lot like what happened with [Bryce] Harper and [Manny] Machado, when they were free agents for so long. Eventually, somebody will want to pay [Realmuto], because he's a great player who gives you everything you want in a catcher -- good receiver, good hitter, great guy."
• Chris Young takes over as general manager of the Texas Rangers, in a job that will allow him and his family to be based in the Lone Star State. But this does feel like a missed opportunity for the sport: At a time when the divide between Major League Baseball and the union has never seemed greater, Young is someone trusted on both sides of the aisle, because of his long pitching career, his intellect, and for his seemingly reflexive desire to find a middle ground palatable for owners and players. Now he moves from a high-ranking position in the commissioner's office into a more confined role in which he might not be able to affect larger change. Baseball has had a series of these types of moves through this long, tumultuous year, with the departure of MLB executive and former MLB Network chief Tony Petitti, who friends say was devoted to the idea of improving the overall product, and Theo Epstein, who stepped away from the Cubs. These are really smart, experienced, circumspect people stepping away from positions of potential influence.
• Perry Minasian has moved fast to add pitching to the Angels, a team that needs pitching, and in an intriguing coincidence, the first player taken in the Rule 5 draft was a pitcher from Minasian's organization. The Pirates plucked 22-year-old Jose Soriano, a source indicated, based on strong scouting reports and data from 2019. Because Soriano had Tommy John surgery in February of 2020 -- with recovery typically lasting 15 months -- it'll be easier for Pittsburgh to keep him stowed on its injured list as he goes through his rehabilitation. Soriano has a powerful arm and a history of control problems that are so acute other clubs say they didn't have the reliever on their board of possibilities. He has walked 134 batters in 238 innings.
• For a mid-market team like the Royals, Carlos Santana seems like the perfect add at the right time, at the right price -- a patient switch-hitter who will add middle-of-the-order power and clubhouse leadership. Kansas City began its pursuit of him right as free agency began and had a built-in connection -- assistant general manager Rene Francisco was with the Dodgers when Santana began his career in that organization. ... Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran, who impressed the Boston staff with the changes he made to his swing path and pitch recognition, is playing in Puerto Rico this winter. ... Right-hander Corey Kluber, working his way back from an injury-shortened season in 2020, is expected to throw bullpen sessions for interested teams late this month. ... Justin Turner has drawn interest from teams other than the Dodgers, but the third baseman will have to convince others that he'll actually leave L.A., where he has been valued. The Dodgers want him back. ... Many, many front-office folks and field staffers share the concerns Chris Iannetta expressed here, about the entertainment in the product. ... Miguel Cabrera turns 38 in April, and it's worth reviewing his record of achievement as he draws closer to a Hall of Fame election that should be unanimous:
Hits: 2,866
Home runs: 487
Extra-base hits: 1,085
RBIs: 1,729
Career average: .313
Batting titles: Four
Adjusted OPS+ 147
Top-10 finishes for MVP: Nine
MVPs: Two
Cabrera could be the first player to reach both the 3,000-hit and 500-home run milestones in the same year.
• A sign of where the sport is, in the slow pace of signings and how eyebrow-deep front offices are in incremental analytics: One of the big stories of the week was the bidding for a career minor leaguer who inked a whopping $750,000 deal.