The Baseball Hall of Fame released its 2021 ballot on Monday, a list that includes 14 holdovers from last year's ballot and 12 newcomers. Curt Schilling is the top returning vote-getter after being selected on 70% of the ballots last year, falling 20 votes shy of the 75% needed for election. Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson and Torii Hunter are the top new names on the ballot.
Let's look at some of the big questions for this year's ballot:
Will any newcomers get in?
No. It's a pretty weak first-year group, although Buehrle, Hudson and Hunter are certainly worthy of a deeper discussion. A quick look at them:
Buehrle: He finished 214-160 with a 3.81 ERA and 60.0 career Baseball-Reference WAR. His adjusted ERA+ of 117 is the same as Gaylord Perry and better than Dennis Eckersley, Jim Bunning, Steve Carlton and Fergie Jenkins. He was extremely durable, topping 200 innings 14 seasons in a row before dipping all the way down to 198 his final season. Considering he won 15 games with a 3.81 ERA that final season, he definitely could have hung on for another couple of years and padded that win total -- while improving his Hall of Fame case. Buehrle also tossed two no-hitters, including a perfect game.
The knock against him is that he was more about consistency than a high peak. He received Cy Young votes just once (fifth place in 2005) and never had a sub-3.00 ERA. You never really thought of him as a Hall of Famer, but the total package presents a borderline case. I always view 60 WAR as a good starting point. Buerhle is at the bottom of that scale and may even struggle to get the 5% needed to stay on the ballot, but he was really good and really underrated.
Hudson: He went 222-133 with a 3.49 ERA, 56.5 WAR and a 120 ERA+. He had a great run with the A's from 2000 to 2004, going 81-37 with a 3.31 ERA and 27.1 WAR, ranking fourth among pitchers in WAR over that five-year span. He then had many good years with the Braves (he won more games with Atlanta than with Oakland) and helped the Giants win a World Series in 2014. He finished in the top 10 in his league in ERA seven times -- compare that to, say, former Braves teammates John Smoltz (eight times) and Tom Glavine (also eight). It's not that Hudson is the equal of those two, but it does show that, like Buehrle, he was very good for a long time.
Hunter: In a different era, a nine-time Gold Glove center fielder who hit 353 home runs and drove in nearly 1,400 runs would be a slam-dunk Hall of Famer. Not in 2020. Hunter's 50.7 career WAR will be an important factor for voters, and that figure is short for even a low-end, modern-day Hall of Famer. Hunter also had just one top-10 MVP finish, a sign that he wasn't quite viewed as a big star, despite his all-around excellence. It's also worth noting that some recent comparable center fielders haven't fared well in Hall of Fame voting:
Jim Edmonds: 60.4 WAR, eight Gold Gloves, off the ballot after his first year.
Kenny Lofton: 68.4 WAR, four Gold Gloves, off the ballot after his first year.
Bernie Williams: 49.6 WAR, four Gold Gloves, off the ballot after his second year.
The one center fielder who did stay on the ballot is Andruw Jones, who was chosen by 19.4% of the voters last year, his third time on the ballot. He won 10 Gold Gloves and is credited with 62.7 WAR. He hit more home runs than Hunter (434), but is behind him in RBIs and hits (although Jones has the better OPS). What separates Jones? He is viewed as a transcendent defensive player, right up there with Willie Mays as the best center fielder of all time. Indeed, the advanced metrics view him as far superior to Hunter, with 235 runs saved versus 33 for Hunter. In this case, I do believe the perception is correct and is reason enough to consider Jones while Hunter falls short.
(Other newcomers are A.J. Burnett, Michael Cuddyer, Dan Haren, LaTroy Hawkins, Aramis Ramirez, Nick Swisher, Shane Victorino and Barry Zito.)
Does Schilling finally get in?
Yes. In his ninth year on the ballot, a popular perception is that Schilling's social media habits have kept him out of Cooperstown. While that has no doubt cost him a few votes, it's notable that Schilling's vote totals have increased three years in a row, from 45% to 51% to 60% to 70%. What really held Schilling back is that he got caught in the huge backlog of candidates that persisted throughout the early and mid-2010s.
The baseball writers, however, have elected 13 players over the past four years and suddenly the ballot is more open than it has been in a long time. That helps Schilling, but beyond that, he's well above the line for an average Hall of Famer. In fact, with 79.5 career WAR, he has the most WAR for any eligible non-Hall of Famer other than Pete Rose and the steroids guys. And that's without even factoring in his stellar postseason performance.
What about Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens?
Everyone's favorite pair are also in their ninth years on the ballot, but unlike Schilling, they failed to make a leap forward in 2020. Bonds went from 59.1% to 60.7% while Clemens went from 59.5% to 61.0%. Maybe they improve their total a percentage point or three, but they won't get to 75%.
Which player will be involved in the most heated debate?
Omar Vizquel. Speaking of Gold Gloves, Vizquel won 11 of them. He played more games at shortstop than anyone. He finished with 2,877 hits. He received 52.6% of the vote last year, trailing only Schilling, Clemens and Bonds among those not elected. Many view him as a defensive shortstop on the level of Ozzie Smith, or at least the best of the rest. For many voters, the longevity is an important consideration, much as it was for Harold Baines when the veterans committee elected him a couple of years ago.
Yet ... well, here's a question: Would you have traded peak Torii Hunter for peak Omar Vizquel? You get more offense with Hunter and you're trading a Gold Glove center field for a Gold Glove shortstop. Seems pretty even, although Hunter had 12 3-WAR seasons to seven for Vizquel. But Vizquel is the more likely Hall of Famer -- by far. This is where labels can trump stats. With Vizquel, it's easy to say "Best defensive shortstop since Ozzie," which creates an image beyond the numbers. With Hunter, despite all his Gold Gloves, his defensive reputation falls short of Ken Griffey Jr. or Jones (two players more or less his contemporaries) and isn't necessarily better than Edmonds or Lofton. Vizquel is credited with just 45.6 career WAR, and the only position players the BBWAA elected over the past few decades with a total even somewhat similar to that are Jim Rice (47.7, elected in 2009) and Kirby Puckett (51.1, elected in 2001).
Vizquel's vote total jumped from 42.8% to 52.5%, usually a trend that suggests a sure-fire selection within a few years. I'm not quite sure he's a lock, however, as many voters will simply refuse to consider him based on his WAR and lackluster offensive numbers. If his total increases, that's obviously a great sign. But if it stagnates, he could be stuck at this level and have to wait for a veterans committee of the future to put him in.
Who is likely to gain momentum?
I'm curious about Jeff Kent, who hit 377 home runs and drove in 1,518 runs -- that's a lot of RBIs! It's 54th on the all-time list, more than Mickey Mantle or Vladimir Guerrero or Eddie Mathews or Mark McGwire or Orlando Cepeda. None of them were middle infielders. The only eligible non-steroid non-Hall of Famer with more RBIs is Fred McGriff (plus Gary Sheffield, who may or may not fall into the "steroid" category).
Kent is on his eighth ballot and reached just 27.5% last year, so time is running short. But, again, the ballot has thinned, which helps. People like to vote for somebody, and if they don't like Bonds or Clemens or Manny Ramirez or Sammy Sosa, I could see a Larry Walker path here, as Walker went from 21.9% his seventh year to 76.6% on his 10th and final ballot last year. That was an unprecedented three-year increase, and Walker has more career WAR than Kent (72.7 to 55.4), but, like Walker, Kent was an MVP and it's hard to ignore those power numbers from a second baseman. Personally, I would consider him over Vizquel, but he just hasn't caught the voters' attention.
Others on the ballot with last year's percentage: Scott Rolen (35.3%), Billy Wagner (31.7%), Sheffield (30.5%), Todd Helton (29.2%), Ramirez (28.2%), Sosa (13.9%), Andy Pettitte (11.3%), Bobby Abreu (5.5%). The 2021 Hall of Fame class will be announced Jan. 26.