The headlines across baseball this week have not been particularly happy, with scandals dominating the news and accomplished people losing their jobs. January is usually a slow time on the baseball calendar -- a good month for a vacation -- with the occasional trade or free-agent signing to keep us engaged. This extra bit of activity has been interesting, to say the least, but these aren't the kind of stories you necessarily hope will emerge. January is bleak enough.
However, January does bring us the highlight of the offseason for those who relish the long history of the great game: the annual Hall of Fame announcement, which will be made Tuesday. Unless it's a year when no one gets in, this is always a happy time. With Derek Jeter tracking at 100%, we're going to get at least one new Cooperstown resident to join Ted Simmons, the selection of the latest version of the veterans committee, on the podium in July.
Last year at about this time, we posed the question: What would the Hall of Fame look like if its virtual inhabitants were arranged in tiers? Instead of the Plaque Gallery being arranged chronologically, as it is now, you'd have the more borderline candidates near the entrance, then as you moved deeper into those hallowed halls, the more legendary the displays would get. Of course, the good folks at the Hall would never actually do this. You're either in or you're out, and the door swings in only one direction.
Still, we all know that Hall of Famers are not created equally. Ted Williams and Harold Baines are both immortalized in Cooperstown, but we know that one of those greats resides a little higher up on baseball's Mount Olympus. With this in mind, let's update our Hall of Fame tiers, using the exact methodology we deployed last year.
You can check that previous piece for the full methodology, which takes into account various value metrics, awards, All-Star appearance, postseason prowess, etc. One thing to always keep in mind: This is a purely statistical ranking and statistics aren't the end-all, be-all of a player's Hall candidacy. The scores represent a rating of the player's résumé as compared to the other Hall of Famers, not the general population of players. The score is actually a count of standard deviations, i.e., Babe Ruth's top-ranked score of 3.18 means he was more than three standard deviations ahead of the average Hall of Famer.
The tiers haven't changed very much, as you'd expect, but the 2019 inductees are all now slotted in place. And we've got a new ballot to judge through this prism. For each tier, we list the names on the current ballot with the tier on which they would reside should they reach the 75% threshold for enshrinement. Since we already know Simmons is in, he has been placed on his tier, alongside his new legendary teammates.
Tier I: Willie, Mickey & the Babe
Possible new members from current ballot: Barry Bonds (2.55), Roger Clemens (1.61).
No changes from last year. It's the same 14 names comprising the crème de la crème of baseball's all-time greats. And it's also the same two names lingering on the ballot who would join this elite group if the vote falls their way. It's probably not going to happen, so we'll be having this discussion at the same time next year.
Tier II: Here You Are, Joe DiMaggio
Possible new members from current ballot: None.
The only change here is that Martinez was bumped up a tier. He was just a whisker away last year and the addition of four new Hall of Famers from last year's BBWAA ballot (Mike Mussina, Edgar Martinez, Mariano Rivera and Roy Halladay) tweaked the cut-off point just enough to move Pedro up. No one from the current ballot would land on this haughty tier ... but one guy comes close.
Tier III: Bob Gibson's 'Step In There' Club
Possible new members from current ballot: Derek Jeter (0.60).
The cutoffs between tiers were calibrated so that top couple of tiers were more exclusive, so the number of Hall of Famers on each tier wouldn't be equal. Think of a Bell curve. We make that point because many or most Yankees fans surely think of Jeter as a Tier I or II Hall of Famer. A Tier III rating for him by this methodology is far from a slap in the face. For one, he isn't far from the second tier. And his score (0.60) ranks him as one of the top 40 or 50 players in baseball history. Ain't nothing wrong with that.
Tier IV: Ozzie Smith's Back-flipping Brigade
Possible new members from current ballot: Curt Schilling (0.16), Manny Ramirez (0.10), Scott Rolen (0.00), Gary Sheffield (0.00), Andruw Jones (-0.06), Larry Walker (-0.14), Bobby Abreu (-0.18), Sammy Sosa (-0.19).
Simmons joins Tier IV with his long-overdue entry into the Hall, which by itself speaks to how deserving he is. Players up to and including this tier pretty much fall into the no-brainer class but of course Simmons' case has been one long debated. His 32-year wait since the end of his career is the longest for a newly elected Hall member who was still around to give his speech since Larry Doby's 39-year wait ended with his induction in 1998. Also, if we see this group as pretty close to the no-brainer classification, then there are a few players on the current ballot who aren't as tracking as well as they might. Walker and Schilling are positioned to break through and both will be worthy additions to the Hall.
Tier V: Dizzy Dean's 'He Slud into Third' Club
Possible new members from current ballot: Andy Pettitte (-0.25), Jeff Kent (-0.27), Todd Helton (-0.31), Jason Giambi (-0.38).
It's hard to say where the cutoff would be for someone who professes to be a "small Hall" advocate, which would preserve enshrinement for only the truly legendary under the most strict of interpretations. However, a lot of small-Hall folks might put the threshold somewhere in the midst of this group. Some of these players would get in, others would not.
Tier VI: The Goose Gossage 'Damn Right I'm in the Hall' Club
Possible new members from current ballot: Cliff Lee (-0.66), Josh Beckett (-0.82), Omar Vizquel (-0.87), Alfonso Soriano (-0.99), Jose Valverde (-1.03), Eric Chavez (-1.04), Brian Roberts (-1.15).
The only player from the current ballot who has generated much Hall support is Vizquel, whose case seems to gain a little more steam every year. There are a couple of Vizquel-esque shortstop predecessors here on the tier he'd join -- Rizzuto and Maranville.
Tier VII: Good Thing I was a Friend of Frankie Frisch Tier
Possible new members from current ballot: Billy Wagner (-1.27), J.J. Putz (-1.84), Rafael Furcal (-1.27), Brad Penny (-1.29), Adam Dunn (-1.38), Paul Konerko (-1.39), Raul Ibanez (-1.45), Chone Figgins (-1.49), Carlos Pena (-1.62), Heath Bell (-1.67).
The method doesn't love short relievers, so you see all of them who have earned a spot in Cooperstown in this group with two exceptions: Gossage (Tier VI) and Rivera (Tier IV). Some of the Hall's worst selections also fall into this group, as you'd expect. Of those on the current ballot, the best Hall case belongs to Wagner; if Hoffman, Fingers, Smith, Wilhelm and Sutter meet the electors' criteria for a Hall of Fame reliever, it's hard to see how Wagner falls short.