Through three games of the World Series, we've gotten a taste of what makes this Dodgers team perhaps the best edition yet in the history of one of Major League Baseball's marquee franchises. Los Angeles has reached the point where it can do everything there is to do to beat an opponent, no matter what contortions that opponent does while trying to match up with it.
That range of dominance was very much on display in Game 3, but so too were the fundamental traits that have marked this version of the Dodgers. We're talking about foundational elements, the fuel to the Dodgers' success that helped set up the glitzy stuff that will dominate highlights of their 6-2 win. Simply put, no team is better at grinding an opposing pitcher into hamburger than the Dodgers, and no team is better at taking that ground beef and turning it into a gourmet feast.
There was only one high-leverage plate appearance in Game 3. It came in the third inning, with the Dodgers up 1-0 on Justin Turner's first-inning home run. Both starters were dealing, with L.A.'s Walker Buehler looking untouchable, putting the onus on the Rays' Charlie Morton to match zeros.
Turner got Morton for a two-out double on a well-placed hooking drive just 77.4 mph off the bat, pushing Corey Seager to third base. Seager had gotten aboard after he was clipped by a Morton splitter that dove down and in and got him on the shoe.
Up stepped working-class hero Max Muncy, who had waited out Morton for five pitches before poking a softly hit single in the first. When you talk about take-and-rake sluggers, Muncy is one of the poster children of that style of baseball that has come to define offense in 2020. Since the beginning of last season, and including the playoffs, only Houston's Alex Bregman (2,691) has taken more pitches than Muncy's 2,521. But when Muncy does deign to swing, and puts the ball in play, he has hit .337 over that span with a 1.027 OPS.
According to FanGraphs.com, the leverage index when Muncy stepped in against Morton in the third had clocked up to 1.93, meaning his at-bat would potentially have nearly double the impact of the average play on the final outcome.
Muncy actually swung at the first pitch, or sort of did, half whacking at a cutter that broke in on him off the plate. He offered at and couldn't hold up and was down 0-1. Muncy has swung at first pitches 20.8% of the time during his career as a hedge against his well-earned reputation for patience. His career OPS when doing so is 1.107, so he clearly has a knack for smelling out pitchers trying to get the jump on him by stealing a strike. However, Muncy swings at first pitches out of the zone just 7% of the time, so he really steps to the dish and sells out. In this instance, Muncy suffered an uncharacteristic bout of overaggressiveness, mostly because of a nasty Morton offering. That happens.
Morton was unable to capitalize on getting the rare Muncy chase. His next three pitches all appeared to be fishing expeditions, the kind that Muncy wants no part of. There was a curveball that had similar action to Morton's cutter but never got above Muncy's knees, so he watched it go by for a ball. Morton tried again with another curve that was a little more elevated but was in off the plate even before it broke in on Muncy. Ball two.
Morton then missed with a four-seamer that was again well off the inside edge of the dish, never in the zone. The highest strike probability of the three offerings belonged to the first curveball -- at 1.6%, per TruMedia. You're not going to get Muncy like that -- not anymore. His career chase rate against curves and cutters is just 15%. This season it was 10%. So Morton had fallen behind 3-1.
Morton went back to his cutter on the fifth pitch, leaving it belt high and on the inner third of the strike zone. Muncy swings at pitches in that location about 61% of the time, a rate that goes up to 67% off righties throwing anything that might be breaking in on him. He has put up a .963 OPS on those pitches. This time, Muncy was ahead of the pitch, bouncing it foul on the first-base side, pushing it to a full count.
The decisive pitch was another cutter. It was more elevated than the others and a little more toward the middle of the plate than what Morton had shown Muncy in the at-bat. In other words, it was the pitch Muncy had been browsing for. He smashed it to right-center at 107.4 mph. Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier raced over to cut it off, but Seager and Turner scored, making the score 3-0.
As mentioned, Muncy's two-run single came in the only high-leverage spot in the game. There were three reasons the leverage never ratcheted back up to that level. First, Muncy came through, increasing the lead to three runs. Second, Buehler kept mowing through the Tampa Bay lineup, preventing the Rays from creating any nail-biting chances of their own, and the Dodgers' bullpen followed suit. Finally, the Dodgers tacked on more runs after that, limiting the Rays' leverage even when they finally did get a couple of runners on base.
In the end, Muncy's two-run hit increased the Dodgers' win expectancy by 22.1%, per FanGraphs, making it the biggest-impact play of the game. But Buehler had no-hit stuff and Turner homered and the Dodgers pushed across a run with a safety squeeze and the bullpen was good and Mookie Betts stole two more bases. The full array of the Dodgers' might was there to be seen Friday, and it was there on the biggest stage in baseball.
Because of the glitzier aspects of some of that action -- glitzier than spitting on curveballs off the plate -- Muncy's success got short shrift in the postgame interviews. Muncy wasn't brought out, though a couple of his teammates and manager Dave Roberts all name-checked him. The limited spotlight is understandable because win probability added doesn't make for the sexiest headlines. However, think of Muncy's at-bat as not just one of great importance within the win, but also one that is emblematic of what makes the Dodgers' offense such a bear for opposing pitchers to wrestle.
You throw the ball out of the zone, hoping for a chase? It doesn't work; the Dodgers' chase rate was the third best in the majors. You throw the ball in the zone; look out. No team homered at a higher rate when attacking pitches in the zone, or got more runs per game in those situations. More than anything, though, what the Dodgers showed time and again in Game 3 was their prowess at working deep counts and doing damage once they do.
According the ESPN Stats & Information research, the Dodgers had six hits and scored five runs in situations similar to Muncy's key at-bat, when two men were out and there were two strikes. They have now scored 50 two-out runs this postseason and 36 runs with two strikes. Both totals are postseason records.
The Rays play this long at-bat game, too. In fact, Tampa Bay is the only team this season to have more plate appearances of five pitches or longer than L.A. But while the Rays ranked seventh in OPS on those at-bats, the Dodgers ranked first, leading in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage. That is the monster the Rays are trying to take down over the next few days.
Grind a team up, then feast on it. It's the approach both clubs take at the plate, but the Dodgers do it better than the Rays. They do it better than everybody.