After making the MLB playoffs as a trendy upset pick thanks to their strong starting pitching, the Cincinnati Reds were swept out of the postseason without scoring a run. What's next for the Reds after being shut down by the Atlanta Braves?
David Schoenfield takes a look at where the Reds stand and answers three key questions for the club moving forward to 2021 and beyond.
Cincinnati Reds
Notable free agents: Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafini, Freddy Galvis, Nick Castellanos (player opt-out)
Trade candidates: Archie Bradley, Aristedes Aquino
Extension candidates: Luis Castillo
1. How do they improve the offense?
The Reds spent less than any team in free agency in the 2010s and then suddenly went bonkers for 2020, signing Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, Wade Miley and Shogo Akiyama. Castellanos was OK, Moustakas struggled, Akiyama couldn't hit for any power and Miley got hurt. With Eugenio Suarez and Joey Votto not hitting for average, the offense was one-dimensional, relying too much on home runs -- and much of the power they did have showed up only at cozy Great American Ballpark. For the most part, however, it's going to be the same group. Votto, Suarez and Moustakas are all signed through 2023 and Castellanos potentially through 2024 if he doesn't opt out.
2. Is Nick Senzel the center fielder?
After yet another injury-plagued season, the Reds can't count on the former first-round pick being a regular for 2021. He missed time in the minors, missed the end of his 2019 rookie season with shoulder surgery and then missed a month in 2020 with an undisclosed injury. On top of that, he still hasn't proven himself at the plate.
Akiyama can handle the position defensively but is best suited to a backup role because of his hitting. Brian Goodwin, acquired from the Angels at the trade deadline, is another possibility. He hadn't played much center with the Angels due to Mike Trout's presence, but he filled in while Senzel was on the IL and looked OK out there. The Reds really need Senzel to step up and became an above-average regular.
3. How do they replace Bauer?
The rotation carried the team in 2020, but there is no way they will be able to afford to keep Bauer, who played for $17 million and could command $30 million on a one-year contract in free agency. (He has said he only plans to sign one-year deals in order to maximize his annual salaries). They'll still have Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle and will have to hope Miley returns from a shoulder strain. If they keep Bradley in a setup role for Raisel Iglesias, they could try Michael Lorenzen in a starting role, as they did at the end of the season.
Nick Lodolo, the team's first-round pick in 2019, may have been in line for a shot, but the missed minor league season probably delays his timetable until 2022. Prospect Tony Santillan is another possibility. Sal Romano started 41 times in 2017-18 and would be more of an emergency option. Given the current size of the team's payroll and the various long-term commitments, dipping back into free agency appears unlikely, so the Reds will probably fill from within.