This season was littered with top-prospect debuts because of expanded rosters and the lack of a true developmental minor league system. From my winter top 100, 39 players have already reached the major leagues, with 28 of them making their debuts this season. While it's fun to talk about what could be in the future, the MLB playoffs are looming and very few recent call-ups will be key players as we enter October. There's a mess of outstanding young talent in the game, so I'm choosing to focus on the best young players in the game.
This list is of all players age 25 or younger whose teams have made the playoffs. I'm ranking them in order of which ones I'd prefer over the next five seasons. This way, having made a real contribution and getting regular playing time this year is a key factor, and the list is made up almost entirely of players who have lost their prospect eligibility.
Because of that, this isn't just the best for long-term upside (or else the top prospect in baseball, Rays SS Wander Franco, would be on here) and it isn't simply for trade value, since we're using a uniform five years with no salary considerations, while control years and salary vary a lot player to player. I'm also leaving out players who have opted out of the season (such as White Sox RHP Michael Kopech), those who are already out for the year because of injury (Braves RHP Mike Soroka, A's LHP A.J. Puk, Astros DH Yordan Alvarez, Rays LHP Brendan McKay), and obviously those who just missed the age cutoff (Brewers RHP Devin Williams).
1. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, San Diego Padres (21 years old)
2. Ronald Acuna Jr., CF, Atlanta Braves (22)
I was splitting hairs to separate these two, but Tatis has the edge on a couple of important factors. He's a year younger (which is a tiebreaker, really) but has more defensive value due to his position and -- most important -- he has dramatically improved defensively from his rookie year to this year. Tatis had exceptional tools and highlight plays in 2019 and 2020, but his propensity for errors and mental lapses made him the 261st-best (or sixth-worst) fielder in baseball last year (minus-13 outs) via Baseball Savant's Outs Above Average stat. This year he's in the positive moving in all four directions and is the second-best defender in baseball (plus-6 for outs) behind only Jackie Bradley Jr.
Tatis and Acuna both are elite in a number of categories, but Tatis' performance this year has been a bit better, ranking in the top 5% of every offensive category other than contact rate, in addition to sprint speed and defensive value, and Acuna is very close on offense, comparable on contact and merely very good rather than elite on defense.
Both hitters whiff more than you'd like, but that's also a skill set that relies on bat speed, power, reactions, etc., that do well through a peak, then age poorly if the hitter doesn't adjust when their raw tools degrade as they get into their 30s. We're picking these two players into their peaks (typically ages 26-27), but if we're comparing them to ages 25-29 for an otherwise similar player, it becomes a real worry that they could start declining at the end of the five-year window we're considering.
3. Cody Bellinger, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers (25)
Speak of the devil, we've got a few 25-year-olds to consider now. Bellinger is having a down year, but don't forget that he has the most WAR of any player eligible for this list over the past two seasons, worth a full win over Acuna. Bellinger has been quite unlucky with outcomes on balls in play this year, but his power indicators are also all down this year, and that's why his expected line is still a step down from an 8-win 2019 campaign. Kris Bryant has also had issues with his power varying from year to year and I'd expect similar variance going forward for Bellinger given the maintenance with his big swing. Bellinger also offers versatility with elite defense at all three outfield spots and first base, with surprisingly strong speed.
4. Shane Bieber, RHP, Cleveland Indians (25)
Tatis and Acuna are clear Nos. 1 and 2 for me, but you could argue that Bieber is right there with them, though I slid him behind the versatile multipositional Bellinger's wide base of skills because, put simply, Bieber is still a pitcher. Bellinger's talent level ranges from 4 to 8 WAR depending on the year, with four seasons of evidence and no notable injuries. Bieber has been the best pitcher in baseball this year and was in the top 10 last year, but we're looking at what amounts to two full seasons of evidence, they're the same age, and Bieber carries a pitcher's attrition issue as the tiebreaker.
There's some thought that, in the tradition of the Nationals last year, a couple of elite starters can have an outsized importance in the postseason, but that won't apply this year without scheduled days off, due to the bubble. I'm totally open to having Bieber third on this list for the playoffs in years 2-5 of this exercise (fingers crossed we don't have another playoff bubble), but I'll lean hitter when it's a toss-up.
5. Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays (22)
Bichette is exciting and has the look of a perennial All-Star, but I think we're securely into the second tier of the list now. He's a shortstop but is about average defensively, with above-average but not game-changing speed, and well above-average offense. But we've also seen only about half of a normal season of performance due to his late 2019 call-up and monthlong hamstring injury this year. He's more Trevor Story than Tatis, but that's still one of the best half-dozen shortstops in the world.
6. Luis Robert, CF, Chicago White Sox (23)
Robert has the most extreme swing-and-miss issue on this list, with a 32% strikeout rate in his rookie year. He also fits the archetype of the tooled-up center fielder with elite speed, defense and power with questionable contact. Tatis is the second-best fielder in the game per OAA, Bellinger third and Robert fifth. Robert is also 88th percentile in rate of barrels, or homer-like contact, and 96th percentile in sprint speed. As I said before, this skill set is scary over the long term, but the speed, defense and bombs make his floor a solid everyday player with some shot for an MVP-like season if he can be close to league average in terms of contact as he develops in the big leagues.
7. Kyle Tucker, RF, Houston Astros (23)
Tucker had some prospect fatigue after being the fifth overall pick in 2015 and not finding sustained big league success until 2020. He was drafted that high due to his picturesque lefty swing and elite offensive potential, but he had just fringy speed and defensive value. Now that Tucker has delivered on that offensive promise, posting above-average offensive numbers across a number of categories, he's also next in line on the OAA list mentioned above, as the 15th-best defender in baseball this year. Like Bichette and Robert, he has a similarly short MLB track record and has the lowest upside given his raw tools and position, but he is the best bet for consistent, strong offensive performances.
8. Ozzie Albies, 2B, Braves (23)
Albies gets overshadowed a bit by sharing a team with Acuna, but he has put up 11 WAR over essentially three full seasons. Given his size, aggressive approach at the plate and lack of big exit velocities, there are plenty of things to make you hesitant to put Albies atop a long-term ranking. People didn't think he was a top prospect when he was tearing up the minors for the reasons I've listed, so I'm comfortable expecting him to keep posting 3-4 WAR seasons into his mid-to-late-20s.
9. Yoan Moncada, 3B, White Sox (25)
Moncada offers a less risky profile than Albies as a bigger guy with louder tools, a more patient approach and more raw power to match it, but he has been much worse in 2020 with his $70 million extension in hand than he was in his breakout 6-win campaign in 2019. His fall-off this year is even more extreme than Bellinger's, with a big drop in exit velocities driving a drop in power metrics along with a rise in strikeout rate. He's also an excellent athlete, with above-average speed and raw power, and he's above average defensively at multiple positions, so I wouldn't get too worried right now, but it's something to monitor.
10. Trent Grisham, CF, Padres (23)
Though Bellinger and Moncada have had down years, Grisham went from nowhere near this list before the season to the No. 10 spot with a huge breakout year. He was the 15th overall pick in 2015, but there was actually some buzz that it was down to him and Tucker for Houston's pick at No. 5 overall that year (after they took Bregman second overall). San Diego stole Grisham in a winter deal with Milwaukee for Luis Urias and a swap of Zach Davies and Eric Lauer. Entering this year, he was seen as a tweener that fit best in left field who had a patient approach and raw power that he first really tapped into in 2019. He has consolidated that 2019 growth into becoming a bona fide patient slugger in 2020, but he's also 10-for-11 in stolen bases with 96th percentile sprint speed and is on our OAA list as the 10th-best defender in all of baseball while playing center field every day. If he does this for another half-season, he'll move up a couple of more spots on this list because the leap from 2018 to now is kind of shocking, even for a guy with this scouting pedigree.
11. Jack Flaherty, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals (24)
Flaherty has been very good for about 400 big league innings, with a spike in homer rate this year explaining an ERA just under 5.00. The homer spike isn't just bad luck. His power allowed numbers all spiked this year, with rising xwOBA on every pitch but especially so on fastballs, which have been located a little more center-cut this year in his heat maps. He gets by with barely using his changeup but otherwise is a classic frontline starter who is above average at nearly everything from a scouting perspective.
12. Will Smith, C, Dodgers (25)
Young catchers are just as scary as young pitchers for these sorts of lists because there's both less bulk as far as performance is concerned due to the rigors of the position but also the regular dings they play through -- and a concussion or two can totally derail a catcher's career. Smith has played only 90 big league games and is about average at framing pitches but is in the top third of the league at basically everything else: plate discipline, contact, power and speed. Smith has been the best WAR-per-plate-appearance catcher in the game over the past two years, edging out the consensus best catcher in the game, J.T. Realmuto. The underlying stats say this level of performance has been real, but it remains to be seen if he can keep it up and do it in a full big league season.
13. Gleyber Torres, SS, New York Yankees (23)
14. Corbin Burnes, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers (25)
15. Jesus Luzardo, LHP, Oakland Athletics (22)
16. Chris Paddack, RHP, Padres (24)
17. James Karinchak, RHP, Indians (25)
18. Eloy Jimenez, LF, White Sox (23)
19. Tommy Edman, 3B, Cardinals (25)
20. Dustin May, RHP, Dodgers (23)
21. Nate Pearson, RHP, Blue Jays (24)
22. Ian Anderson, RHP, Braves (22)
23. Sixto Sanchez, RHP, Miami Marlins (22)
24. Randy Arozarena, CF, Tampa Bay Rays (25)
25. Austin Meadows, LF, Rays (25)
Most of the rest of this list would have been somewhere around here entering the year, but there have been some meaningful breakthroughs. ... Burnes converted his relief success to becoming a starter, joining Brandon Woodruff atop the Brewers' rotation. ... Karinchak is the only long-term reliever in this conversation and he has continued to shove high-velocity goodness. ... Edman has been sneakily versatile and productive. ... If I did this list every few months, the four pitchers at the end would be in every possible order over the next couple of years. ... Arozarena is one of many players rotating through the Rays' outfield, but his loud debut with above-average tools across the board means he and Meadows are their best long-term keepers. The loss of Jake Cronenworth to San Diego in a winter deal was balanced out by the addition of Arozarena in a different deal.
We'll wrap things up with some other names of note that were in the mix for the list:
Keston Hiura, 2B, Brewers (24)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays (21)
Zach Plesac, RHP, Indians (25)
Aaron Civale, RHP, Indians (25)
Deivi Garcia, RHP, Yankees (21)
Garrett Crochet, LHP, White Sox (21)
Willy Adames, SS, Rays (25)
Nick Madrigal, 2B, White Sox (23)
Cavan Biggio, 2B, Blue Jays (25)
Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Marlins (25)
Triston McKenzie, RHP, Indians (23)
Dane Dunning, RHP, White Sox (25)
Dylan Carlson, LF, Cardinals (21)
Danny Jansen, C, Blue Jays (25)
Ryan Jeffers, C, Minnesota Twins (23)
Nico Hoerner, 2B, Chicago Cubs (23)