Welcome to our monthly check-in on the pecking order of MLB teams. We last did this in early August, when only a few games had been logged by each club. Now it's a month later, and already we are headlong into the stretch drive. Only in 2020.
As always, the numbers attached to Stock Watch reflect two things: a snapshot of the baseline strength of each team's roster and the probabilities for what that roster might accomplish during the season. As has been noted far and wide, when you have a baseball season so short and combine it with a playoff field so large, the resulting dynamic is a democratization of probability. In other words, more teams can claim to have a chance to make the playoffs. That part is straightforward.
At the same time, the question of baseline strength is more difficult to answer. In an ordinary season, current results are gradually folded into past results as projections are revised, with recent outcomes taking on more weight as the season goes along. At a certain point, you largely decide that a team is what it is in the standings because the samples are large enough to be telling (though the talent baseline suggested by the projections never fully goes away).
How do you assess that in 2020?
The end product is kind of fascinating and even fun. You can have a team that you know has the baseline talent of, say, 75 wins over a 162-game season but still declare it a lock for the playoffs. You can do that if the team has banked enough wins during the season to date and because more teams will make the playoffs in 2020 than will not. Plus, as noted, we're already into the stretch run. There isn't enough time left for overachievers and underachievers to reach their equilibriums.
The Marlins are the perfect example of this dynamic at work. The Fish have a roster that has a true talent baseline right now of somewhere around 68 to 70 wins, and that might be generous. Yet Miami's decision to buy at the trade deadline, adding center fielder Starling Marte, was reasonable. The Marlins were at .500 at the time and held a playoff spot in the standings with about three-and-a-half weeks to go. Any team can overachieve for three-and-a-half weeks.
Because of all this, we're going to rank teams this month based on their current projected win totals rather than their power rankings, though both figures will be noted. Hey, it's 2020. We have little choice but embrace this season for what it is.
Thematically, we want to accentuate something positive for every team, though that's an easier directive for some clubs than for others. What we've looking for is the most exciting development for every team.
1. Win forecast: 41.6 | Change from August: +3.6
Power rating: 106.1 [Rank: 1]
Division%: 97.8 | Playoff%: 100.0
Pennant%: 43.7 | Title%: 31.5
On the team that has everything, the return to form of one of the longest tenured and most popular stars might prove to be central to L.A.'s finally snapping its three-decade-plus championship drought. That would be closer Kenley Jansen, who is a different sort of closer than he was in his heyday but is as effective as he ever was. Jansen ranks in the 98th percentile by expected wOBA and in the very top percentile of limiting exit velocity. The cutter is and always will be his bread-and-butter pitch, but improved fastball performance has aided his reemergence.
2. Win forecast: 39.5 | Change from August: +7.0
Power rating: 93.5 [Rank: 3]
Division%: 98.5 | Playoff%: 100.0
Pennant%: 13.3 | Title%: 6.1
The Rays' competitive model is based on maximizing the potential of countless discreet moments, during which Tampa Bay leverages every spot on a deep roster. Getting star-level play helps, too. The Rays can't buy stars; they have to develop their own. They might have done just that with second baseman Brandon Lowe. In his first 163 career games, he has hit 33 homers with 104 RBIs and a 126 OPS+, all with above-average defensive metrics at his primary position. That's star-level production from a player under team-friendly control through 2026. That's the Rays' way.
3. Win forecast: 37.3 | Change from August: +4.2
Power rating: 96.7 [Rank: 2]
Division%: 58.1 | Playoff%: 99.9
Pennant%: 19.0 | Title%: 9.3
In each season from 2014 to 2018, former Indians ace Corey Kluber ranked among the AL's top five pitchers by bWAR. In 2018, he was joined in the top five by Trevor Bauer. Last season, the Indians had two top-10 starters but none in the top five. Those two were Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger. Kluber, Bauer and Clevinger are all gone, but Bieber has taken Kluber's place as perhaps the best starter in the AL. He's a Cy Young front-runner and an MVP candidate. A 1.25 ERA and 14.6 strikeouts per nine innings will do that.
4. Win forecast: 36.6 | Change from August: +3.8
Power rating: 91.7 [Rank: 5]
Division%: 33.4 | Playoff%: 99.9
Pennant%: 13.9 | Title%: 6.0
It has been almost all good news on the South Side, but nothing stands out more than the rookie season of Luis Robert. There are those who think the key to contentment is to temper expectation. With Robert, the expectations were sky-high -- and he has exceeded them. He hits homers into areas of ballparks that home runs generally do not reach. He has a flair for the dramatic in clutch situations. He breaks on sinking line drives as if he sees two seconds into the future. Robert has been as good as advertised, and he was advertised as a future star.
5. Win forecast: 36.0 | Change from August: +1.5
Power rating: 91.9 [Rank: 4]
Division%: 93.5 | Playoff%: 99.9
Pennant%: 15.5 | Title%: 8.0
With Mike Soroka out for the season and a return to action by Cole Hamels uncertain, Max Fried's rise to a Cy Young contender has been huge for the Braves. At a time when baseball offense has never been more dependent upon home runs, the ability to limit bombs is a pretty nice tool for a pitcher. Fried has yet to allow a homer, having surrendered none to the first 197 batters he faced this season. He'll give up a homer at some point, but it's no fluke. No qualifying starter has a lower expected isolated slugging percentage allowed, per StatCast.
6. Win forecast: 35.9 | Change from August: +2.9
Power rating: 90.1 [Rank: 9]
Division%: 79.6 | Playoff%: 99.7
Pennant%: 12.4 | Title%: 5.1
The Athletics entered the season a second baseman short of perhaps the franchise's best infield since Connie Mack's "$100,000 infield" from more than a century ago. Instead, Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien and Matt Olson have all struggled on offense. Where's the good news? How about the standings. Oakland is in first place without getting expected production from its stars. Run prevention has keyed Oakland's strong start, but you still have to outscore opponents. Give credit to Oakland's co-leaders in runs created (24): Mark Canha and Robbie Grossman. The overall success of Oakland's roster bodes well for October.
7. Win forecast: 35.6 | Change from August: +2.5
Power rating: 91.7 [Rank: 5]
Division%: 2.2 | Playoff%: 100.0
Pennant%: 13.3 | Title%: 7.0
As with the White Sox, it's hard to narrow the Padres' good news down to one thing. Let's go with Jake Cronenworth, who was included in the deal that featured the acquisition of Tommy Pham from Tampa Bay. Cronenworth, best known as a two-way prospect, reached Rule 5 eligibility, forcing the deep Rays into a roster decision. He hasn't pitched this year, but he has hit so well and consistently that he has plugged the Padres' hole at second base and become a Rookie of the Year front-runner. Now the question of whether Cronenworth can also pitch seems moot.
8. Win forecast: 34.7 | Change from August: -3.8
Power rating: 91.0 [Rank: 7]
Division%: 8.5 | Playoff%: 99.3
Pennant%: 12.7 | Title%: 5.3
The Twins were linked to the priciest free-agent pitchers last winter -- or at least the ones on the tier below Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg. Minnesota lost out on Hyun-Jin Ryu, Madison Bumgarner and Zack Wheeler. Instead, the Twins traded for Kenta Maeda, and the former Dodger has emerged as an outstanding No. 2 to ace Jose Berrios. Maeda has a sub-.3.00 ERA, leads the AL in WHIP and sports a seven-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio. All of this means the three years Maeda has left on his deal after 2020 are an absolute bargain.
9. Win forecast: 33.8 | Change from August: +2.4
Power rating: 90.1 [Rank: 9]
Division%: 64.9 | Playoff%: 97.3
Pennant%: 11.4 | Title%: 5.3
The Cardinals' five-year, $130 million extension to Paul Goldschmidt's contract was a splash for the franchise. Thus, it was alarming when Goldy posted an .821 OPS during his first St. Louis season. Happily, he has shown the good kind of regression in 2020. With a league-leading .462 on-base percentage, driven by 27 walks against just 18 strikeouts, Goldschmidt has regained what was one of baseball's premier batting eyes. That suggests that he remains enough of a threat in the eyes of opposing pitchers that they need to work him carefully. That's a good thing because that is a lot of money.
10. Chicago Cubs
Win forecast: 32.8 | Change from August: -2.1
Power rating: 82.9 [Rank: 12]
Division%: 33.2 | Playoff%: 97.8
Pennant%: 6.0 | Title%: 2.2
Entering the season, the list of players you'd forecast to be the Cubs' leading MVP candidate would have grown long before you came to the name of Ian Happ. Make no mistake: At least among position players, Happ has been Chicago's top performer this season. He has been one of the league's best hitters, demonstrating a much-improved mastery of the strike zone while hitting with as much power as ever. His performance is MVP-worthy on the face of it, but it particularly stands out in a lineup that has seen so many of its main cogs sputter.
11. New York Yankees
Win forecast: 32.5 | Change from August: -8.4
Power rating: 89.6 [Rank: 11]
Division%: 0.8 | Playoff%: 91.6
Pennant%: 10.8 | Title%: 4.5
When set against expectations, there has not been much good news during the Yankees' 2020 season. Because we're trying to keep things positive, however, let's highlight Yankees third baseman Gio Urshela (although, as a Yankee, he is serving an obligatory stint on the injured list). After a midcareer breakout for the Bombers last year in his age-27 season, Urshela seemed like a good bet to regress. He has seen a predictable decline in BABIP, going from .349 to .278. However, Urshela's secondary skills have continued to improve, enough so that his OPS+ (137) is even better than it was in 2019 (133).
12. Houston Astros
Win forecast: 32.3 | Change from August: -2.9
Power rating: 90.6 [Rank: 8]
Division%: 20.3 | Playoff%: 96.4
Pennant%: 10.9 | Title%: 4.7
A lot has gone wrong for the Astros since last season's ALCS -- to the extent that if recent trends don't reverse, Houston could be edged out of the playoffs by a team with about 75 percent of its talent. One thing that has gone right has been longtime prospect Kyle Tucker finally establishing a foothold at the big league level. Once jokingly referred to as "Ted" because of his Splinter-like resemblance swinging his lefty stick, Tucker has become a bona fide threat. He still needs to refine his plate discipline, but Tucker is single-handedly keeping the triple alive.
13. Win forecast: 32.1 | Change from August: +5.2
Power rating: 82.8 [Rank: 13]
Division%: 0.7 | Playoff%: 89.4
Pennant%: 6.3 | Title%: 1.9
While the Blue Jays wait for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to hit his stride, the 2020 season has provided further evidence that Toronto has its middle infield of the future in place. Cavan Biggio hits with power and patience (though with too many strikeouts) while offering speed and plus defense. At shortstop, Bo Bichette is all kinds of exciting, with more dynamic bat-to-ball skills than his double-play counterpart with as much power, speed and defensive range. Bichette needs to stay healthy and become more consistent with the glove, but at 22, time is on his side.
14. Win forecast: 30.8 | Change from August: +2.1
Power rating: 80.8 [Rank: 15]
Division%: 4.4 | Playoff%: 82.2
Pennant%: 3.7 | Title%: 1.4
You can't really say that the Phillies' top rookies fueled their recent surge. Still, the Phils have jumped into the thick of contention while integrating their top two prospects in key roles. Third baseman Alec Bohm is in an adjustment period. After drawing seven walks in his first 10 games, he has gone 11 games without a free pass. Meanwhile, Spencer Howard has made five starts on the mound; he, too, is figuring things out. Both have shown flashes of why the prospect wonks were so fond of them. The Phils' patience with them could pay off big in a few weeks.
15. Win forecast: 28.9 | Change from August: +3.9
Power rating: 76.6 [Rank: 18]
Division%: 0.0 | Playoff%: 55.2
Pennant%: 1.6 | Title%: 0.5
The Giants have remained competitive even as they rebuild. A big part of that balancing act has been the ongoing late-career emergence of outfielder Mike Yastrzemski. Rather than regressing from his surprising rookie season, Yaz 2.0 has gotten even better in his age-29 season. At this point, Yastrzemski has played what amounts to one full season in his big league career: 148 games and 592 plate appearances. He has hit .279/.357/.535 with 29 homers, 82 RBIs and 96 runs scored. Perhaps more importantly, Yastrzemski is an ongoing validation of the Giants' developmental acumen with second-chance players.
16. Colorado Rockies
Win forecast: 28.3 | Change from August: -3.0
Power rating: 72.4 [Rank: 23]
Division%: 0.0 | Playoff%: 36.2
Pennant%: 0.7 | Title%: 0.2
Expectations for the Rockies this season were all over the place, so it's hard to assess how they've met preconceived notions. One player has clearly exceeded expectation. That would be closer Daniel Bard, who entered the season without any expectations at all. No one thought he'd pitch in the big leagues, much less occupy a key role for a postseason contender. Bard, 35, had not pitched in the majors since 2013 because of control issues. He's succeeding this year not with veteran moxie but with good stuff. His fastball velocity ranks in the 94th percentile of all big leaguers. Great story.
17. New York Mets
Win forecast: 28.3 | Change from August: -0.1
Power rating: 81.8 [Rank: 14]
Division%: 0.6 | Playoff%: 49.0
Pennant%: 2.1 | Title%: 0.6
The Mets' offense has been among the game's best, even with 2019 rookie sensation Pete Alonso working through a sophomore slump. Brandon Nimmo recovered from a poor season to return to his .400 OBP-generating ways. Michael Conforto has mashed like a superstar. Dominic Smith, displaced at first base by Alonso's emergence, continued his 2019 breakout after stepping into the void opened by Yoenis Cespedes' decision to opt out. Smith has a .944 OPS in 328 plate appearances since the start of 2019. If the NL keeps the DH, Smith will remain a key piece in New York's future.
18. Miami Marlins
Win forecast: 28.2 | Change from August: +6.1
Power rating: 72.9 [Rank: 21]
Division%: 1.5 | Playoff%: 38.2
Pennant%: 0.8 | Title%: 0.2
Pablo Lopez. Elieser Hernandez. Sixto Sanchez. Sandy Alcantara. Trevor Rogers. The Marlins rank eighth in rotation ERA, but the quintet listed above -- Miami's emergent rotation -- would rank second if their collective 3.06 ERA accounted for all of Miami's outings. The oldest of them is Hernandez, who turned 25 in May. Unfortunately, the group was together too briefly, as Hernandez went down for the season with a lat strain. Still, the Marlins emphasized starting pitching in their rebuilding effort and appear to have succeeded in that, to exciting effect. The starting pitching is Miami's best hope for a 2020 playoff push.
19. Win forecast: 27.4 | Change from August: -2.6
Power rating: 72.1 [Rank: 24]
Division%: 1.6 | Playoff%: 21.2
Pennant%: 0.4 | Title%: 0.1
Do the Brewers strike you as a team likely to lock up a short reliever on a long-term contract? It's a relevant question, as Josh Hader, perhaps the game's preeminent bullpen weapon the past three years, wades deeper into his arbitration years. If the Milwaukee brass decides to cash in Hader during the offseason, Brewers fans can be comforted by the emergence of Devin Williams. Williams has a 0.53 ERA, has struck out 18.5 batters per nine innings and has allowed four hits in 17 frames. He also ranks in the top percentile in several StatCast metrics.
20. Detroit Tigers
Win forecast: 27.3 | Change from August: +4.6
Power rating: 71.9 [Rank: 25]
Division%: 0.0 | Playoff%: 7.4
Pennant%: 0.2 | Title%: 0.0
That the Tigers entertain playoff hopes after Labor Day is enough good news for Detroiters, but let's focus on the ascension of rotation prospects Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal. Neither has recreated Fernando-mania circa 1981 during his debut, but both look like keepers. Plus, led by fellow prospect Matt Manning, more help is on the way. The best part of the Tigers' quasi-contention is that Skubal and Mize get to perform in games that paradoxically have real stakes but limited pressure. When the Detroit rebuild hits full stride, these weeks might be remembered as the beginning of the turnaround.
21. Win forecast: 27.1 | Change from August: +2.2
Power rating: 72.7 [Rank: 22]
Division%: 0.0 | Playoff%: 8.1
Pennant%: 0.3 | Title%: 0.1
Although his name is too on-the-nose even for a writer in the fantasy genre, Ryan Mountcastle has flourished during his inaugural stint as a big leaguer. In his first couple of weeks, Mountcastle has a couple of three-hit games and a two-homer contest while keeping his OPS around 1.000. Two weeks does not establish a player, but it's a good start for an upstart Baltimore club that continues to flutter around the bottom of the AL playoff standings. With breakout slugger Anthony Santander out because of an oblique injury, the O's need Mountcastle to keep mashing.
22. Cincinnati Reds
Win forecast: 26.7 | Change from August: -3.5
Power rating: 74.0 [Rank: 19]
Division%: 0.4 | Playoff%: 17.5
Pennant%: 0.5 | Title%: 0.1
The Reds' roster was built around a standout rotation that has mostly lived up to lofty expectations. As expected, the big three of Trevor Bauer, Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo has led the charge. However, don't overlook the emergence of righty Tyler Mahle as a fourth reliable performer. Mahle has improved his strikeout rate, ditching his iffy cutter in favor of a slider that has proven to be much more of a swing-and-miss offering. With Wade Miley ailing and Anthony DeSclafani scuffling, Mahle's continued success will be a vital component to a late-season Cincinnati playoff push.
23. Seattle Mariners
Win forecast: 26.3 | Change from August: +3.2
Power rating: 68.7 [Rank: 28]
Division%: 0.1 | Playoff%: 5.4
Pennant%: 0.0 | Title%: 0.0
Perhaps no player has an improved his stock more than rookie center fielder Kyle Lewis. Lewis entered the season as Kiley McDaniel's No. 8 Seattle prospect and third among outfielders, behind Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic. Lewis has emerged has one of the AL's most exciting players, with a .917 OPS, 30 runs scored and a strong AL Rookie of the Year case. Now, after the Mariners traded for another elite outfield prospect in former Red and Padre Taylor Trammell, Seattle finds itself with plenty of tantalizing possibilities for roaming the green at T-Mobile Park in the years to come.
24. Win forecast: 25.9 | Change from August: -1.1
Power rating: 78.4 [Rank: 17]
Division%: 0.0 | Playoff%: 2.8
Pennant%: 0.2 | Title%: 0.0
For one truncated season at least, the signing of Anthony Rendon has worked out well. Rendon, the Angel, has been every bit as good as Rendon, the National. But this franchise needs less help at the top of its talent pyramid than it needs at the levels below. The Angels need more acquisitions to pay off like the trade for Dylan Bundy has. Bundy entered this season with a career ERA+ of 95. This season, he's at 178. Under pitching coach Mickey Callaway, Bundy has deemphasized his fastball and induced more soft contact. That's a success story the Angels need to replicate many times over.
25. Win forecast: 24.1 | Change from August: -9.9
Power rating: 78.6 [Rank: 16]
Division%: 0.0 | Playoff%: 4.2
Pennant%: 0.1 | Title%: 0.0
The Nationals' championship defense has been less than exhilarating. Washington has plummeted to the cellar, even as stars Juan Soto and Trea Turner are playing as well as anybody in the National League. Turner leads the league in average (.365) and hits and is hitting with power more consistently. He remains one of baseball's most fleet-footed athletes. Turner has two more arbitration-eligible seasons after 2020. The Nats have some huge contracts on the books, but they need to latch on to Turner before he can follow the path out of D.C. blazed by Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon.
26. Win forecast: 23.9 | Change from August: -2.4
Power rating: 73.1 [Rank: 20]
Division%: 0.0 | Playoff%: 1.4
Pennant%: 0.0 | Title%: 0.0
This has not been a season of happy developments in Phoenix. For this, we will go with the ongoing performance of 24-year-old righty Zac Gallen. Gallen has been nothing but good since he reached the majors last season for Miami. Yet he was traded midway through his rookie season, which makes you wonder. Stop wondering: Gallen can bring it. In 23 career starts, he has a 184 ERA+ and has struck out 10.4 batters per nine innings. Alas, through no fault of his own, Gallen has won just four of those 23 starts, including one this season.
27. Win forecast: 22.4 | Change from August: -2.1
Power rating: 69.2 [Rank: 27]
Division%: 0.0 | Playoff%: 0.0
Pennant%: 0.0 | Title%: 0.0
This season has been a mixed bag for the Royals' rebuilding process, with Adalberto Mondesi's poor campaign a particularly startling development. On the flip side, when you think back to the mid-2010s bullpens that fueled two K.C. pennants, the emergence of righty Josh Staumont as a legitimate stopper is a hopeful sign. Long held back by command issues during his minor league rise, Staumont has become a StatCast darling. His fastball velo (99th percentile) is elite, as is his whiff rate (96th percentile). It isn't just the fastball: Staumont's high-spin curve is every bit as much a weapon.
28. Boston Red Sox
Win forecast: 21.4 | Change from August: -5.6
Power rating: 71.8 [Rank: 26]
Division%: 0.0 | Playoff%: 0.0
Pennant%: 0.0 | Title%: 0.0
The 2020 season has been so dismal for the Red Sox that you might have missed the fact that while Alex Verdugo is no Mookie Betts, he could become a star as Betts' ostensible replacement. Verdugo has kept his average over .300 for most of the season and has done so with good pop on contact. His 14 doubles lead the AL, and nine of them have come at Fenway Park, where he seems like a nice fit. He has also flourished playing the difficult left field at MLB's oldest venue. He's no Betts, but Verdugo is a core piece in Boston.
29. Texas Rangers
Win forecast: 21.3 | Change from August: -6.7
Power rating: 66.3 [Rank: 29]
Division%: 0.0 | Playoff%: 0.1
Pennant%: 0.0 | Title%: 0.0
The Rangers are on the hook for Rougned Odor through 2022 -- before a 2023 club option kicks in. That makes it likely that he'll keep getting chances to develop some semblance of the strike zone, but mercifully, that might not be the case for the stretch run. Last week, manager Chris Woodward told reporters that Texas will emphasize getting time for younger players. Thus, during another disappointing season, Texas has done its fans a kindness. Don't forget that in 2017, Odor posted a 63 OPS+ -- and played in 162 games. For all his ability, Odor can be awfully difficult to watch.
30. Win forecast: 21.2 | Change from August: -0.8
Power rating: 66.1 [Rank: 30]
Division%: 0.0 | Playoff%: 0.1
Pennant%: 0.0 | Title%: 0.0
Ke'Bryan Hayes won't keep going like this, but his arrival in the big leagues has been a ray of sunshine in a dismal Pirates campaign. Hayes started by going 7-for-18 at the plate with three extra-base hits. He hammered his first homer in his first game, and it came in a clutch situation. He has saved two runs defensively, per Stats Info Solutions. Small-sample defensive metrics don't usually merit attention, but in Hayes' case, that stat reminds you that his advanced billing suggested potential for him to be in the Nolan Arenado/Matt Chapman class of hot-corner defense.