There's more uncertainty than ever for the 2020 season, but that means the most uncertain part of a typical season -- the role of young players -- is even more unpredictable than usual. With scouts not permitted to be at games, no formal stats and limited information from workouts, we have little idea which players have taken a step forward in the past few months. That, however, will not stop me from trying to project the most impactful rookie-eligible player for each of the 30 clubs.
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National League
Arizona Diamondbacks: Kevin Ginkel, RHP
You could argue that the answer here is catcher Daulton Varsho, who is a more impactful young player, but there's no clear path for him to reach the big leagues unless there are multiple injuries. As a middle reliever, Ginkel isn't exciting, but he has two plus pitches -- a mid-90s heater and a slider -- and a loud stat line the past few years, with 25 strong MLB appearances last season.
Atlanta Braves: Cristian Pache, CF
Righties Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson should both get extended looks, but neither has turned the corner in terms of reaching his upside at the big league level, and there are plenty of veterans to fill key roles on the staff. Pache is on the 40-man roster, and if there's an injury or any combination of Ender Inciarte, Adam Duvall, Johan Camargo, Austin Riley or Yonder Alonso disappoints, or if Freddie Freeman is out for a while with the coronavirus, Pache looks like the first reinforcement. If he gets up, expect him to stay up. The recent minor ankle injury for Pache and the signing of Yasiel Puig doesn't change this choice for me, as there still are a number of ways for Pache to get big league reps, even in a shortened season.
Chicago Cubs: Nico Hoerner, 2B
Hoerner might not have an everyday spot in the lineup, but he should be up most of the season and would be the first candidate to get more reps if there's a disappointment among Albert Almora Jr., Ian Happ, Jason Kipnis or Jason Heyward. His plus contact/speed combo and versatility give him a number of ways to contribute.
Cincinnati Reds: Tyler Stephenson, C
RHP Joel Kuhnel looks like the only prospect who will break camp with the club, but a couple of bad outings might mean he's up for only a few weeks. Stephenson is on the 40-man and is a top-100 prospect with everyday upside as soon as 2021, though he isn't a slam dunk to be called up since Kyle Farmer functions as a third catcher on the 30-man roster and Stephenson hasn't played in Triple-A yet.
Colorado Rockies: Brendan Rodgers, 2B
Rodgers is coming off shoulder surgery and will be in an infield time-share, but there's just more impact here (perennial top-50 overall prospect in baseball, former No. 3 overall pick) than with LF Sam Hilliard, the other prospect likely to get a good share of at-bats.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Gavin Lux, 2B
Lux is the best prospect in baseball who will play in the big leagues this year (Wander Franco is buried in a deep Rays org/middle-infield situation) and he'll open getting the majority of the reps at second base. The elements are here for above-average contact and 30 homers, but it may take a year or two for Lux to hit that stride; Chase Utley hit .309 with 32 homers in his second full MLB season and there are a number of parallels with Lux.
Miami Marlins: Monte Harrison, CF
There are a few prospects who might break with the club as long-relief options, but with Lewis Brinson and a Matt Joyce/Harold Ramirez platoon covering right field and designated hitter, respectively, Harrison should get a look this year. He's on the 40-man roster, can play all three outfield positions and has a good bit of Triple-A experience to go with his Top 100-prospect pedigree.
Milwaukee Brewers: Tyrone Taylor, CF
Milwaukee has the weakest group of prospects for the purposes of this article and also the 30th-ranked farm system in baseball. Taylor is on the 40-man, has fourth-outfielder upside, has Triple-A and MLB experience and could serve in a reserve role this year. That said, it isn't clear that he'll even get MLB time, and the same goes for other 40-man prospect types like righties Trey Supak and Devin Williams.
New York Mets: Walker Lockett, RHP
Lockett might be the only prospect to break with the big league club, but C Ali Sanchez and SS Andres Gimenez are both on the 40-man roster and could get looks, even in a shortened season. Sanchez won't have much impact and Gimenez would need an extended absence from Amed Rosario. Lockett should soak up innings with some quality, but Gimenez is the upside bet here.
Philadelphia Phillies: Alec Bohm, 3B
The Phillies have a few long relievers who are likely to break camp with the big club, but the two names to watch are the top two prospects in the organization: Bohm and RHP Spencer Howard. Both are dynamic, impact prospects who have experience in the upper levels and will be called up if there's a need, so I'll lean toward the hitter given that there's a DH this year.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Mitch Keller, RHP
Keller has long been a Top 100 prospect and there are some signs he might be turning the corner. He has a spot in the rotation with injuries to Chris Archer and Jameson Taillon. RHP Nick Burdi could turn into a setup man if he can stay healthy, but the other rookie to keep an eye on is 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes. He's the club's top prospect and should take over third base in 2020, but he hasn't reported to camp yet.
St. Louis Cardinals: Lane Thomas, CF
C Andrew Knizner will function as the third catcher and RHP Junior Fernandez should be a useful power arm in middle relief, but Thomas will have the biggest role of the rookie group. He'll platoon with Dexter Fowler and serve as the replacement if Fowler, Tyler O'Neill, Tommy Edman or Harrison Bader underperforms.
San Diego Padres: MacKenzie Gore, LHP, and Luis Patino, RHP
There's a gaggle of prospects in the mix for the Opening Day roster -- OF Edward Olivares, SS Jorge Mateo (now out with the coronavirus), RHPs David Bednar, Gerardo Reyes and Javy Guerra -- and there are some others on the 40-man who have a good shot to get looks this year: SS/RHP Jake Cronenworth, LF Taylor Trammell, LHP Adrian Morejon, RHP Michel Baez, RHP Ronald Bolanos and RHP Trey Wingenter.
All that said, the two biggest impact guys in this system are LHP Gore and RHP Luis Patino, and both would open in the upper minors in a normal season, but San Diego is going for it this year and is not afraid to start a service-time clock earlier than others. With deeper active rosters and pitchers going shorter stints earlier in the season, the same club that had Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack up on Opening Day last year will take a long look at making a similar move this year.
San Francisco Giants: Mauricio Dubon, 2B
Dubon might be the only prospect to break camp with the big league club, so this one comes down to if C Joey Bart gets an extended look this year; I don't think Bart will in this shortened season. Dubon's upside isn't electric as a contact-first middle infielder without a plus tool, but he'll do a little bit of everything.
Washington Nationals: Carter Kieboom, 3B
Kieboom probably is the only prospect on the roster after the first month of the season. And the Top 100 prospect likely sticks in the lineup all year as Anthony Rendon's replacement. Kieboom is an above-average hitter with plus raw power who can capably play almost any spot on the field. Look for more average production this year (.260ish, single-digit homers) before getting closer to his upside in 2021.
American League
Baltimore Orioles: Austin Hays, CF
Hays looks poised to open the season in center field for the O's and brings a plus power/speed/arm combination, but there are real questions about his pitch selection. LF Ryan Mountcastle is on the 40-man and could easily overtake one of the everyday outfield options before season's end. RHP Hunter Harvey finally has stayed healthy long enough to get an extended shot in the big league pen.
Boston Red Sox: Tanner Houck and Bryan Mata, RHPs
Rule 5 SS Jonathan Arauz might be the only prospect to break camp with the club and SS C.J. Chatham is on the 40-man and also could get playing time. Both are lighter-impact utility types, while the other position player on the 40-man who doesn't have a clear role yet, Bobby Dalbec (recently returned from the coronavirus), has a line to be a bench bat, platoon partner for 1B Mitch Moreland, or an injury replacement for DH J.D. Martinez or 3B Rafael Devers. Keep an eye on starting pitching depth with all the attrition of late, with RHPs Houck and Mata (both off the 40-man roster but in the player pool) the highest upside options.
Chicago White Sox: Luis Robert, CF
Robert is one of the top two rookie impact guys along with Gavin Lux of the Dodgers, and there's no shot of holding him down for a week to get another year of control since Robert already has signed an extension. He has massive tools and is making progress with in-game adjustments against big league-caliber pitching.
Cleveland Indians: James Karinchak, RHP
Karinchak looks like the only prospect who will break camp with the club and he has dynamic, optimized, elite, closer-level stuff, with swing-and-miss rates to match. The non-roster players in the pool are primarily prospects, so there are all kinds of options, with LHP Logan Allen, OF Daniel Johnson and SS Yu Chang as the 40-man players most likely to offer help during the season. Keep an eye on 6-foot-8 LHP Sam Hentges, a relief type on the 40-man roster who was up to 99 mph this spring.
Detroit Tigers: Matt Manning and Casey Mize, RHPs
RHP Bryan Garcia might work in the later innings for Detroit, but the prospect impact is looking lighter for 2020, with lots to come in 2021 and beyond. Manning and Mize are the top two prospects in the org and would break with the big league club for some teams, but Detroit won't be competing this year, so getting looks at other options has validity.
Houston Astros: Abraham Toro, 3B
RHP Bryan Abreu has big strikeout stuff and will work in the later innings, and top prospect RHP Forrest Whitley is lurking with some positive buzz, but the pitching depth here might work against either having a featured role. Toro can play all four corner spots and has the most thump on the bench, so I'll lean toward the position player who could have an impact in almost every game.
Kansas City Royals: Ryan McBroom, 1B
McBroom looks set to start at first base for the rebuilding Royals, with wild thing RHP Josh Staumont the other prospect who looks likely to break camp with the big club. It's not the strongest rookie group in the league when it's headlined by a 28-year-old rookie first baseman, but the next wave of help (LHP Daniel Lynch, LHP Kris Bubic, RHP Jackson Kowar, RHP Brady Singer, C M.J. Melendez, RF Khalil Lee, RF Kyle Isbel, SS Bobby Witt Jr.) are all in the 60-man pool and are options in 2021 and beyond.
Los Angeles Angels: Jo Adell, LF
LHP Patrick Sandoval and OF Michael Hermosillo will likely open the season in support roles on the 30-man roster. On the top prospect side, OF Brandon Marsh has been out with an undisclosed injury, while Adell isn't on the 40-man roster and seems assured of at least staying out of the big leagues for the first week of the 2020 season to get an extra year of service. Marsh hasn't played above Double-A, and Adell had a high strikeout rate in his abbreviated Triple-A stint last year, but Adell has top-of-the-scale exit velocities/raw power/hand speed that can change any game he's in.
Minnesota Twins: Lewis Thorpe, LHP
Thorpe is the best non-closer lefty in the Twins' bullpen and can spot start, so that slides him ahead of middle relief righty Cody Stashak. Top 100 prospect RHP Jhoan Duran has only seven appearances under his belt above Class A but has huge stuff and could provide relief help if needed.
New York Yankees: Deivi Garcia, RHP
RHP Clate Schmidt has had more buzz this spring/summer, but he's not on the 40-man and has only three starts above A-ball. Garcia is on the 40-man, has started and relieved in Triple-A and has stuff that's just as good as Schmidt's. There's a good shot both will make at least one appearance in the big leagues this year. Keep an eye on SS Thairo Estrada as a sleeper who could get a shot to play until 2B D.J. LeMahieu returns from the coronavirus.
Oakland Athletics: A.J. Puk, LHP
Oakland has the best group of impact rookies with LHP Jesus Luzardo, Puk and C Sean Murphy all Top 100 prospects and all with everyday roles. Luzardo is the most electric and consistent of the group, but he's still not in camp because he has the coronavirus, so the slight nod goes to Puk.
Seattle Mariners: Evan White, 1B
Seattle has a number of options here with 1B White, OFs Kyle Lewis, Jake Fraley and Braden Bishop, LHP Justus Sheffield and RHP Justin Dunn all with strong chances to open the season on the big league roster. I'll lean to the hitters and those who should start the year with everyday, non-platooned lineup spots. Lewis hits mammoth homers, which is more fun than an admittedly also fun thing that White offers, which is elite first-base defense.
Tampa Bay Rays: Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, 1B
This is a little bit of a cheat since Tsutsugo is 28 years old and came from the NPB this winter, but similar to Nick Solak, he'll get a lot of reps at a couple of different places and has real power production potential, maybe 30 homers in a full season.
Of the conventional rookies, relief RHP Peter Fairbanks is sneaky good and could be a setup guy for most clubs but is a bit buried in the Rays' pen, while LHP Brendan McKay is the sixth starter and thus probably gets a handful of starts this season. LHP Anthony Banda is back from Tommy John surgery and was good this spring, so he's a sleeper to keep an eye on for the super deep Rays pitching staff.
Don't expect SS Wander Franco (the top prospect in baseball) or 2B Vidal Brujan (another Top 100 type) to get a look this year, but C MIchael Perez is a rookie and will open the year as the backup catcher.
Texas Rangers: Nick Solak, 2B
Solak is by far the best candidate for this spot and he's notable in that he has lost a step of speed and regressed defensively to where he might be a left field/first base/designated hitter type who can fake second base if you shift around him. He'll get everyday reps in a couple of different spots, with a shot for above-average contact and power performance.
Toronto Blue Jays: Nate Pearson, RHP
C Reese McGuire, OF Anthony Alford, RHP Thomas Hatch and LHP Anthony Kay all have a shot to crack the Opening Day roster and all could stick around and give solid contributions in role-player slots. Pearson arguably is the top pitching prospect in baseball and he's ready to contribute. The only question is if he comes up after the five-to-six-day period to ensure an extra year of club control, or maybe a month after that.