Opening Day for the 60-game 2020 MLB season is approaching fast, and it sure feels good to have some actual baseball action to talk about. Each day over the next two weeks, our panel of MLB experts will weigh in on the biggest storylines of the season ahead.
The topics our panel has hit so far (click the links or scroll down to see the answers):
Biggest name starting his last season with his current team?
Who is more likely to win it all: Dodgers/Yankees or the field?
Who is the biggest name playing his last season with his current team?
Sam Miller: Albert Pujols? He's got another year on his contract after this one, and I have no insight that tells me he doesn't want to play it out. But the world is awfully unforeseeable right now. I could imagine any number of scenarios in which he's not back for 2021, ranging from the almost apocalyptic (no baseball) to the much more traditional (the Angels decide they're too competitive in 2021 to roster a sub-replacement 41-year-old with no positional utility). Meanwhile, from his end, this shortened season greatly reduces his chances of eventually getting to 700 career home runs or the all-time RBI record, giving him less incentive to hang around if playing baseball in a pandemic turns out to be miserable. I'm not confidently predicting it, but these 60 games could be the unacknowledged retirement tour of one of the 21st century's three greatest players.
David Schoenfield: Ryan Braun has played all 13 of his seasons with the Brewers -- the only current players with more service time with one franchise are Yadier Molina, Ryan Zimmerman (who isn't playing this year) and Dustin Pedroia (who is probably done as an active player). Braun has a mutual option for 2021, but the Brewers will almost certainly utilize their $4 million buyout. Braun is no longer a star and there's no love outside Milwaukee for him, but he has been one of the greatest Brewers players in franchise history.
Dan Mullen: Well, we know it's not Mookie Betts now. I'll go with Francisco Lindor. I don't think we'll see a lot of big trades during the season. But if spending in free agency is down after all of the lost revenue of the shortened season as expected -- with Mookie's big extension a rare exception -- that could make teams even more inclined to trade for someone like Lindor this winter.
Jesse Rogers: If this were March, I'd easily take Kris Bryant. I'm a little less sure now, especially after Bryant expressed his desire -- more than ever -- to remain a Cub when he reported to summer camp. But unless he takes a very team-friendly deal, I'll stick with him as my choice. The Cubs have no fewer than four star players all set to become free agents after 2021. For reasons too long and complex to get into here, Bryant remains less likely than the others to stick around. The Cubs simply can't pay everyone.
Is everybody sleeping on the reigning-champion Nationals?
Dan Mullen: In our predictions leading up to this season, we keep saying that dominant pitching is capable of carrying a team in this 60-game sprint of a season ... and then we keep picking someone other than the team that rode a rotation trio of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin (along with Anibal Sanchez) to a World Series title last fall. So yes, in a sense, we are sleeping on the Nationals.
But here's the thing: Anthony Rendon was ridiculously good all October, particularly when the Nats managed to take down the Dodgers in the NLDS. And, while there are some intriguing options to fill the void around Juan Soto in the lineup, I just can't picture Washington getting past Los Angeles again without Rendon in the middle of it.
David Schoenfield: Hey, I'm picking them to win the division. One reason they won "only" 93 games last year was the bullpen was absolutely wretched -- last in the majors in win probability added and next-to-last in ERA. No, they didn't really replace Rendon, but the bullpen will be better. Oh, and they still have Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin and Sanchez, and Austin Voth is a big sleeper as the fifth starter. So, yes, don't sleep on the Nationals.
Alden Gonzalez: I might be, but I have my reasons. David declared that the Nationals' bullpen "will be better," but that is largely because it cannot be worse. That bullpen is still particularly bad. And in a season that comes with a quick ramp-up and will be played in the backdrop of an escalating pandemic, I can't trust the availability of Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, Sanchez or any other starting pitcher. Pitching depth will be critical this summer, even more so than usual, and the Nationals simply don't have enough of it -- at least not enough to win a division with three other solid contenders.
Sam Miller: That's just the paradox of a super-short season: When you're projecting it, the differences get super flat, such that 14 teams project to win between 31 and 33 games; and yet when we play it out, the small-sample swings are going to be extreme, such that one of those 14 teams is going to go 38-22 and another is going to go 27-33 with no better explanation than /shrugggg. The Nationals are one of those 14 teams. They can go 27-33 (as they did in the first 60 games last year), and they can certainly go 38-22 (as they did in the final 60 games last year) and win it all. They're a strong pick. In fact, I'll disagree with Alden and say their bullpen this year will be not just a little better but above-average. But I'm staring at 14 swatch samples of white paint and trying to spot a favorite, when it's a lot simpler to just concede and pick the clearly superior Dodgers.
Bradford Doolittle: The Nationals have registered as a slight favorite in the NL East by my numbers during the entire offseason, so I don't know who the "we" is that's so sleepy on them. The Nats' big issue is finding a second threat to pair with superstar Juan Soto, and while I think Carter Kieboom can hold his own at third base, he's not going to immediately fill the shoes of Anthony Rendon. But as they did after losing Bryce Harper, the Nationals have redistributed some of their payroll after losing Rendon to add veteran depth and give Dave Martinez a lot of options. Starlin Castro is a real sleeper at second base as a ready-for-his-time-in-the-sun candidate, and he helps balance the lineup. I also like a possible semi-platoon at first with Howie Kendrick and Eric Thames.
We haven't yet seen the best of Victor Robles, nor have we seen the best of Trea Turner (well, maybe), so there is upside in the existing group. Then there's that rotation of studs whose October hangover should be over by now. If Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin are able to ramp up quickly, Washington could be poised to jump out to a fast start while other clubs are still figuring out how to navigate this weird season.
Who is more likely to win it all this year: Dodgers/Yankees or the field?
Alden Gonzalez: The field, simply because the smaller sample size will create a plethora of unpredictability and will allow for lesser teams to thrive. Think about how many mediocre teams go on dominant 60-game runs, or how many dominant teams are awful through 60 games (the Dodgers in 2018, the Nats in 2019). An Angels team with a ton of star power but not much depth could be dangerous. So can a young, exciting team like the White Sox. It's 60 games -- the Marlins could catch fire and win it all! (OK, maybe not. But you get my point.)
Bradford Doolittle: The field would be the answer the numbers dictate. If you weren't allowed the field, I'd turn to the Dodgers because of their rotation depth.
Jesse Rogers: How could you not take the field in a 60-game season amid a coronavirus pandemic which could take out a player or entire team at a moment's notice? Plus, the regular baseball injuries will be as unpredictable as ever -- and even more impactful. Looking good on paper means little this season. The field it is.
Dan Mullen: C'mon, be bold, people! This question might be sleeping on the Astros a little bit, but the best teams in baseball have historically good rosters right now, and I'll take one of those teams to win it all this year. A shorter format might make things less predictable during the regular season, but October is still going to look a lot like October, and do you really think the Dodgers or Yankees won't win the 35 or so games needed to get there?
Jeff Passan: I am picking a Dodgers-Yankees World Series and I'll still take the field because math.
The breakout star of 2020 will be ...?
Buster Olney: Nate Pearson. With no reason to be concerned about innings limits, the Blue Jays will keep giving him the ball, and he will dominate -- and give Toronto fans yet another reason to believe in the team's future. Folks who love baseball will love his personality.
Jay Jaffe: Fernando Tatis Jr. Despite playing just 84 games last year, he put up numbers that would make for a very solid full season (22 HR, 16 SB, 150 wRC+, 3.6 WAR) -- and he did so at age 20! Yes, he might have some swing-and-miss and defensive issues, but if he's available for the full complement of the season (short as it is) for a team that should be more relevant than in 2019, a whole lot more people will discover what a star he is.
David Schoenfield: I mentioned Victor Robles previously. He might already be the best defensive center fielder in the game, and while the bat doesn't have huge upside, he should improve on his .255/.326/.419 line from last season. His speed and defense make him an impact player -- and one of the most exciting up-and-coming young stars.
Jesse Rogers: Austin Meadows flew under the radar in 2019 even though he had a fantastic season with the Rays. Who doesn't like a player who averages more than a hit per game played? Meadows had 154 base knocks in 138 games while displaying the ability to go deep with 33 long balls. His OPS ranked eighth in the American League. If he improves his plate discipline just a little, his numbers should get even better. He doesn't have the name recognition a Vlad Jr. or Tatis brings to the game -- plus he plays in Tampa Bay -- but if you're looking for a breakout star who isn't already a well-known quantity, Meadows qualifies.
Alden Gonzalez: Bryce Harper. It's hard to call someone a "breakout star" when he has already secured a $300-plus million contract. But it always seems as though we expect more from Harper, who is still only 27 years old. Maybe that's our own fault. Regardless, he has had some stretches when he resembles the type of player we envisioned -- a LeBron James-type figure in this sport -- and for some reason I think this entire season could be one of those. For what it's worth, Harper is a .298/.428/.597 career hitter through the first month. That's half the games this year.
Jeff Passan: How next-level good is Luis Robert? He is so good he started wearing masks more than two years ago. He is so good he hits home runs falling down. He is so good he ... oh, no more of this Chuck Norris meme. Let's go simple. Robert is 22, hits for stupid power, plays center field and has done nothing to make the White Sox regret the $52 million they paid for him when he signed as an international free agent from Cuba or the $50 million on top of that he guaranteed himself in a long-term extension that could keep Robert in Chicago through 2027.
Which 2019 rookie is set to make the biggest jump?
Bradford Doolittle: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is poised to build on his good, not great, rookie season and become a star. Because he hit the majors so young, these years are the ones in which we should see the most year-to-year growth.
David Schoenfield: Eloy Jimenez is two years older so I might still take Guerrero in the long run, but while Vladdy Jr. is still learning to launch the ball in the air, Jimenez already knows how to do that. He quietly hit 31 home runs last year, but he was much better in the second half, hitting .292/.328/.542. If he can clean up the approach -- his chase rate was too high at 33.7% -- he's ready to fully take advantage of his big exit velocity and become one of the game's premier sluggers.
Dan Mullen: Remember the big question of how the Nationals would replace Anthony Rendon at third base? Would they trade for Kris Bryant? Would they make a blockbuster deal for Nolan Arenado? Well, there's a reason they're going into the season without one of those guys and his name is Victor Robles. Inevitably, Robles' name entered those talks, and inevitably those talks ended soon after. Yes, he's overshadowed by Juan Soto in his own outfield, but Robles is a budding star in his own right. We're talking about an elite defender who could lead the league in stolen bases, hit double-digit home runs in a 60-game season and has much better contact skills than his .255 batting average in 2019 suggests.
Jesse Rogers: Guess who had the best slugging percentage last year among rookies not named Alvarez, Tatis or Alonso? His name is Aristides Aquino and he belted 19 home runs in just 205 at-bats for the Cincinnati Reds in 2019. His .576 slug would have ranked him tied for 11th in baseball if he had played enough games. Like many young players, he'll need to take a few more walks and cut down on the strikeouts, but the raw talent is there -- and don't run on him, as he has a laser from the outfield. His only problem? Finding playing time in a stacked Reds lineup. If he can squeeze his way onto the field, watch out.
Jeff Passan: So many choices. Fernando Tatis Jr. is the most exciting player in baseball. Keston Hiura is a star in the making. Bo Bichette is the linchpin of Toronto's second-generation infield. But two catchers -- the Dodgers' Will Smith and the A's Sean Murphy -- are similar in some very good ways: they hit for average and power, know how to draw a walk and are very good behind the plate. Murphy is a tank, Smith slighter and more agile, but both, at 25, have the everyday job and should run with it.
MLB's best defensive player is ...?
Bradford Doolittle: In terms of year-over-year consistency and the degree to which a player has established himself relative to his positional peers, I'll go with Matt Chapman. There probably aren't many eras in which you'd point to a corner player, but given the fluidity with which defenses are aligned in today's game, I have no qualms in going with someone at the hot corner.
Jay Jaffe: Andrelton Simmons. Between an outstanding arm, sure hands and great range, he has it all. Not only is he a walking -- or leaping, diving and throwing -- highlight film but his defensive metrics are off the charts. Despite playing in just 103 games last year, he led American League shortstops in UZR, DRS and Statcast OAA, and over the previous two seasons, he was first in the majors in UZR twice, and in DRS and OAA once apiece, with a second in DRS and a fourth in OAA rounding out the rankings. He's building a Hall of Fame case on the strength of his glove.
David Schoenfield: Chapman is pretty incredible and has -- dare I say -- surpassed Nolan Arenado as the best third baseman in the game. Chapman leads all defenders over the past two seasons with 64 defensive runs saved, an incredible 39 runs more than Arenado. Using an old-school stat, Chapman's range factor (assists plus putouts) is 3.23 per nine innings in his career, compared to a league average of 2.64 -- or an extra 89 plays made over 150 games. The argument against Chapman is that he ranked eighth among all fielders in Statcast's outs above average at plus-14, with Arenado at plus-17 -- both trailing Victor Robles' plus-23.
Jeff Passan: Give me the guy who can play every infield position at an elite level, who invented the no-look tag, who has all the tools one could want: a rocket arm, supple hands, soothsayer instinct, tap dancer feet. Oh, and the metrics love him, too. Javier Baez is the right answer.
Kiley McDaniel: If you take the past three seasons and combine positional value with defensive value into one number (computed here by FanGraphs), the top defender with 71.2 runs of value is White Sox catcher Yasmani Grandal. It's more fun to say Baez, Chapman, Arenado or Simmons is the answer because they have web gems and flashy tools, but the sneakily most valuable defensive property in baseball is being durable enough to soak up innings behind the plate and steal a couple strikes per inning.
The best rookie of 2020 will be ...
Bradford Doolittle: Whether you're talking right-now impact, long-term potential or effect on the playoff races, all signs point to Luis Robert. It stinks that White Sox fans might not get a chance to see him firsthand this season.
David Schoenfield: We saw Jesus Luzardo of the A's dominate out of the bullpen last September, but he'll be in the rotation in 2020 and has the stuff, polish and minor league track record to be an immediate star. He has a four-pitch mix with a mid-90s four-seamer and sinker, plus a changeup and curveball. He's Kiley McDaniel's No. 4 overall prospect and top-rated pitcher, and he might be joined by fellow rookie southpaw A.J. Puk in the Oakland rotation for a dynamite one-two punch that recalls when the Moneyball A's came up with Mark Mulder and Barry Zito at the same time.
Jesse Rogers: Luzardo should get every chance to emerge in Oakland's rotation, and a shortened season might fit perfectly for his development. After throwing only 43 innings in 2019 thanks to injury, a jump into the high 100s would have been hard to envision in a normal season. But in a year with just 10-12 starts, the talented lefty has a real chance to dominate for the A's just as he did in their system as recently as 2018, when he gave up just 89 hits in 109 minor league innings.
Joon Lee: Second baseman Gavin Lux brings a lot of tools to the table at second base and has the potential to be an offensive game-changer after the 22-year-old top prospect hit .347 with a 1.028 OPS last season. After the offseason trade for Mookie Betts, the Dodgers will feel significantly more urgency than most to come out successful during this truncated season.
Kiley McDaniel: I wrote two articles covering this very topic earlier in the year, and the two hitters (Lux and Robert) and two pitchers (Luzardo and Puk) have already been mentioned *shrug emoji*. Among those remaining, I'm gonna take Jays RHP Nate Pearson. He might put up the most WAR of the group (if we're gonna be nerdy about it), but he's for sure the most exciting to watch on top of that, hurling triple-digit heaters as part of a power repertoire that can look like Thor or Roger Clemens when Pearson is really humming.
Who is the player with the most to prove in 2020?
Sam Miller: For Shohei Ohtani, this shortened season is a chance to show how the best-case scenario plays out for a two-way star. Playing every day and starting every sixth day is incredibly taxing, and improvising the plan to manage those two workloads over a full year was a lot to ask of him and the Angels in 2018.
Now that Ohtani is healthy again and has a limited-run schedule -- in which every starting pitcher has a gentler innings limit -- he should be able to pitch without too much fear of exhaustion. We could see the promise fulfilled, a "full" year of Cy Young-quality pitching and middle-of-the-order hitting. But if that promise isn't fulfilled, even in a 60-game schedule, the club and the player might well have to concede it never will and accept a less transformative, one-way version of Shohei Ohtani going forward.
Bradford Doolittle: In a sense, the pressure valve is probably a loose one for just about all players in this strange context, at least when it comes to external evaluation. Who, really, can be blamed for anything that happens on the field? In a normal season, for a question like this, you kind of drift toward the latest high-priced free agent, especially if he landed in a big market. So while I have no real worries about Gerrit Cole, he does have a big contract to live up to and will try to do so under baseball's brightest spotlight.
Buster Olney: Pretty much all of the Astros' position players. The industry response to them will be largely muted because of the much more important coronavirus concerns, and the idea that they would become human pincushions for a barrage of well-aimed fastballs was probably always overstated.
But the sign-stealing scandal changes the context for any Astro who struggles at the plate: If some hitter sees a major dip in offensive production, the initial social media response will be that well, yeah, he doesn't get advance warning on the pitch types anymore -- and in an era in which every decision is driven by analytics, even rival teams will make their own assessments about whether a built-in advantage was removed. It'll be greatly imprecise speculation, but this will be the new reality for those who played on the '17 Astros.
David Schoenfield: My first inclination was to go with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who was fine as a rookie but not spectacular, aside from his Home Run Derby exploits. Two of his rookie teammates, Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio, even produced a higher OPS+. I'm going in a different direction, however, and I feel a little mean even mentioning this guy because he's going to Cooperstown someday and doesn't really have to prove anything. But Clayton Kershaw ... well, it still comes down to October, doesn't it? If "prove" is equated with pressure, then no player in baseball has more pressure on him than when Kershaw steps on the mound in October.
Jeff Passan: Mookie Betts, of course. He's got more to gain than anyone. Nobody can doubt Betts' bona fides. He was really good last year, slashing .295/.391/.524. But if he can OPS well above 1.000, as he did in his MVP-winning 2018 season, Betts will set himself up for an even greater free-agent payday than he's in line for already. How munificent that will be, of course, nobody knows, with revenues in 2020 plummeting and the pandemic leaving far too many unanswered questions for baseball to assume a return to status quo anytime soon.
Who will be 2020's breakthrough team?
Jesse Rogers: It's the same team it was back in March -- the Cincinnati Reds. They're an even better pick now that the DH has been implemented in the National League. They're so deep that last year's hotshot rookie Aristides Aquino, who hit 19 home runs in only 56 games, began summer camp on the taxi squad. He'd probably start on about 13 other teams in the NL, but, with the additions of Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas, the Reds are loaded. Plus, the shutdown gave third baseman Eugenio Suarez time to heal an injured shoulder. The team is stacked from top to bottom, though there are a few questions in the pitching staff. But it's a team without a glaring hole. The Reds will win the NL Central.
Jay Jaffe, FanGraphs: The Reds. A lineup that had only two above-average hitters last year (Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker) added two more via free agency in Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas, and there's plenty of reason to believe that a healthy Nick Senzel and a more representative Joey Votto can add to that total as well. The new DH lowers the cost of keeping both Winker and Castellanos in the lineup given their rough glovework. Via FanGraphs, their rotation projects as the NL's third best; they're solid or better Nos. 1-5, with Luis Castillo being a star in the making and Trevor Bauer capable of much more than he showed after last year's trade.
Alden Gonzalez: The San Diego Padres. They were still another year or two away in a conventional sense. But shrink the season by almost two-thirds, and all of a sudden a lineup with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado can have a major impact, and a nucleus of young starters that includes Chris Paddack, MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino can pitch with fewer restrictions, and a lights-out reliever like Kirby Yates can be used a lot more freely. Yes, the Dodgers are in their division. So what?
Bradford Doolittle: The Chicago White Sox. While their collective young talent percolated in the minors, the right young players were maturing into first-division players in the majors -- Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito. Eloy Jimenez is positioned to join them. Luis Robert is poised to be baseball's biggest sensation over the next couple of months, and I love how Nick Madrigal fits in balancing the lineup on both sides of the ball. When you pepper in the veterans -- Jose Abreu, Yasmani Grandal, Dallas Keuchel -- the Sox are set up for a tipping-point season in their rebuild.
Jeff Passan: The Texas Rangers. This is strictly a bet on starting pitching, which might be a fool's errand in 2020, but with Mike Minor, Corey Kluber, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles, the Rangers pack five arms capable of going deep into games and eating innings in a season in which other teams will rely on depth to buoy them. The full-on Joey Gallo breakout is nigh; Willie Calhoun is back from a broken jaw to hit, hit, hit; and Nick Solak can rake. Also: If reliever Alex Speas breaks camp, he's going to be fun to watch. Among the Astros, A's and Angels, the Rangers need to overcome a difficult AL West field -- and maybe they'd have been the savvier pick in an expanded postseason -- but if there's any time to bet on reliable pitching, now is it.
Joon Lee: I'm going with the Los Angeles Angels: With Shohei Ohtani back at full strength, the addition of Anthony Rendon and the rise of top prospect Jo Adell, Southern California's other baseball team looks significantly more formidable offensively. Toss in the return of Ohtani into the rotation, and the Angels suddenly look like a team that could feasibly make a run in a shortened crapshoot of a season. Questions certainly still revolve around the pitching, where additions Julio Teheran and former Orioles top prospect Dylan Bundy highlight the new starters. Don't forget the change in the manager's office too, where Joe Maddon brings his quirky championship pedigree in replacing Brad Ausmus, who lasted only one season with the Angels.
Which 2019 playoff team is set up for a 2020 fall?
Alden Gonzalez: The Washington Nationals for two simple reasons: They lost Anthony Rendon and didn't necessarily replace him, and they won the World Series last year in spite of a historically bad bullpen. Bullpens will be essential this year. Most starters probably won't be fully stretched out early on, and teams are going to cycle through a lot of pitching -- a lot of players -- because of the inevitability of coronavirus cases. The Nationals' top-heavy pitching staff was a major weapon in October because Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez basically carried the team. The Nats will need much more than that in a season such as this.
Bradford Doolittle: The Milwaukee Brewers. They had a ton of turnover since last season, and to my eye, much of it looks like a rearranging of the deck chairs. However, the deck itself might need some renovation. The loss of Yasmani Grandal is huge. The Brewers can't withstand any kind of decline from Christian Yelich or Josh Hader, and as good as those players are, it might be tough for them to put up a third straight season at the level they've played at. Lorenzo Cain is the other foundation piece, and he is 34, he has spent a decade banging into walls and his numbers declined significantly last season.
Buster Olney: The Atlanta Braves, which really is a shame because in spring training, they looked spectacular, with the continued development of some of their youngest players. But they've suffered the most critical losses of any team to the coronavirus, with Freddie Freeman out indefinitely and Nick Markakis opting out after talking with Freeman. On top of that, the teams in the East divisions of both leagues will have the most challenging schedules, with Atlanta lined up to play the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox.
Jeff Passan: The notion that the Houston Astros will fall entirely out of the playoff picture might be a stretch, but this isn't the 107-win juggernaut that came within a game of winning the World Series last year. Losing Gerrit Cole is one thing. Starting the season with Justin Verlander on the mend from groin surgery, Lance McCullers Jr. coming off Tommy John surgery and a back end of the rotation with questions -- Jose Urquidy and Josh James still haven't thrown a summer camp pitch -- could be problematic. Compound that with the absence of Yordan Alvarez from camp, and the Astros are starting a short season short-handed, and that's a burden even for a tremendously talented team.
Jesse Rogers: The Nationals, for sure. OK, they won't have the traditional World Series hangover, which most championship teams experience, but between the loss of Rendon and some issues with restarting related to the coronavirus, they will not be picking up where they left off. In 2019, they were the classic team that got hot at the right time. Although the shorter season will lend itself to the same kind of thinking -- the hot team might ride the wave -- the Nationals are part of a tough division in which they trailed all of last season. Bottom line: This isn't a dynasty in the making -- see the bullpen for evidence -- though the team does have plenty of talent.