I'll start here with one disclosure: I don't play fantasy baseball. I help some friends with their fantasy teams, specifically around young players, the ones they aren't as familiar with.
Whether you're a Major League Baseball die-hard or a fantasy player or some combination thereof, knowing the young players entering the big leagues this season is de rigueur at some point. A bunch of names of kids in A-ball is only so much help, so I have instead created a 2020 guide to rookies, trying to balance their talent, proximity to being big-league-ready and their potential opportunity, when applicable.
Today we start with the rookie-eligible position players. The hitters are a little easier to separate into a category or to find a fit for a specific opening on a fantasy roster, but there's also a clear tier of every-day types with either clear shots at an Opening Day lineup spot or a chance to be a quick addition. I'll refer to players opening the season at Double-A or Triple-A even, though there may not be a minor league season, as a way of measuring how big-league-ready a player is.
Jump by ranked group:
Top-tier Rookie Hitters | Up-the-middle and speed players
Power sources and corner players | Catchers
Top-tier rookie hitters
1. Gavin Lux, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Luis Robert, CF, Chicago White Sox
3. Carter Kieboom, 3B, Washington Nationals
4. Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, 1B/3B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays
5. Sean Murphy, C, Oakland Athletics
6. Evan White, 1B, Seattle Mariners
7. Kyle Lewis, RF, Mariners
8. Austin Hays, CF, Baltimore Orioles
9. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
10. Sam Hilliard, LF, Colorado Rockies
Gavin Lux will open as a part-time player, but one with All-Star potential at an up-the-middle position on a contender with a chance to earn more playing time. Luis Robert has even more upside and likely won't be platooned, but his approach at the plate as a bit of a free swinger could optimistically play like Starling Marte, or more pessimistically, look more like Lewis Brinson's MLB career so far. Carter Kieboom also has a clear opening to start at third base and has an All-Star ceiling as a bat-first type.
Yoshitomo Tsutsugo is a 28-year-old from Japan who will be in a multi-positional timeshare for Tampa Bay at DH and the four corner spots; he could hit .260 with 20-25 bombs and an above-average walk rate. Sean Murphy has plenty of tools to help him stand out in the wasteland that is catching; that bar to clear is low, but his impact is more all-around than standing out big in any one category. Evan White is the unusual defense-first first baseman, but there's a shot for a league-average bat in the short term.
The last four are a little more speculative in terms of full-season production. Kyle Lewis is set to be the every-day right fielder for a rebuilding Seattle club and has 30-homer power, but he may hit .230 with a bunch of strikeouts and be prone to streakiness. Austin Hays looks set to be the everyday center fielder for Baltimore and has the tools to fit (plus raw power and above-average speed), but the track record over the past two years has been spotty, and he's a free swinger as well.
Ke'Bryan Hayes, the son of former Phillies third baseman Charlie Hayes, is an elite defender with solid/average offensive skills but a flat-planed swing that doesn't tap into his raw power, though there have been glimpses of turning the corner. A Colin Moran-Erik Gonzalez platoon stands in front of him at the major league level, but a strong start in Triple-A (and already being on the 40-man roster) could get Hayes an early chance to steal the job. Sam Hilliard has the same tools as Hayes but will likely open 2020 as the lefty part of a platoon with Ian Desmond, so the streakiness of a high-strikeout approach could eat into his power/speed/Coors upside.
Up-the-middle and speed players
1. Nico Hoerner, 2B, Chicago Cubs
2. Mauricio Dubon, 2B, San Francisco Giants
3. Nick Madrigal, 2B, Chicago White Sox
4. Randy Arozarena, CF, Tampa Bay Rays
5. Jake Fraley, CF, Seattle Mariners
6. Monte Harrison, CF, Miami Marlins
7. Jazz Chisholm, SS, Marlins
8. Lane Thomas, CF, St. Louis Cardinals
9. Jared Oliva, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates
10. Daz Cameron, CF, Detroit Tigers
11. Isaac Paredes, 3B, Tigers
12. Jorge Mateo, SS, Oakland Athletics
13 & 14. Cristian Pache & Drew Waters, CF, Atlanta Braves
15. Andres Gimenez, SS, New York Mets
16. Ryan McKenna, CF, Baltimore Orioles
The rest of the guys under consideration can fall into a couple of broad categories. This list is mostly contact-and-speed players who play middle positions. Nico Hoerner has enough pop to be a strong every-day player (think 15 homers, some speed) and fits anywhere up the middle, so he just needs one opening almost anywhere on the field to get a shot from Triple-A. The Jason Kipnis/David Bote second-base platoon is the weakest position in the Cubs' lineup, so there could be a quick move (Hoerner is already on the 40-man) if Kipnis starts slowly.
Mauricio Dubon is set to be the every-day second baseman in San Francisco but lacks the pop to be a standout option. Nick Madrigal fits in the mold of Dubon as an extreme contact/limited power second baseman, but Madrigal also has elite wheels to go with elite contact. Like Hoerner, Madrigal will start off in Triple-A with the weakest slot in the Chicago lineup (in this case, Leury Garcia) representing his last hurdle to playing time. Randy Arozarena will also start in Triple-A and has a skill set closer to Hoerner's than Madrigal's, but there's a very crowded Tampa Bay outfield picture, and he'd be on the wrong side of a platoon if he breaks in as part of a timeshare.
Jake Fraley is a hit-over-power outfielder with a typical fourth outfielder/platoon profile of being average to above at a number of things, but probably not being a championship-level every-day player. Lane Thomas is a poor man's version of Harrison Bader with some power, speed and defensive value but a lower batting average. As a right-hander, he'll be on the wrong side of a platoon to start the year.
Monte Harrison is on the 40-man but is set to start at Triple-A and was one of three major pieces acquired in the Christian Yelich trade from Milwaukee. The other two major pieces (2B Isan Diaz and RF Lewis Brinson) are both set to start in the every-day lineup, but with Jonathan Villar fitting in the outfield or infield, if either of those young players falters, Harrison and/or RF Jesus Sanchez (see below, in the next section) are the long-term potential answers at Triple-A who have 40-man spots. Harrison is a classic power/speed, elite athlete type with contact/strikeout problems. Marlins No. 9 hitter Miguel Rojas has another Top 100 prospect lurking behind him in Triple-A waiting for his job at shortstop in Jazz Chisholm. Chisholm has the Harrison-type skill set with walks, strikeouts, homers, speed and defense, but he hasn't played in Triple-A yet, so he may debut later than some others on this list.
Jared Oliva is another solid candidate to open in Triple-A, eventually becoming a low-end every-day option, and his future position is manned by the weakest option in his organization's big league lineup (Jarrod Dyson). Daz Cameron and Isaac Paredes also fit into this mold, with Detroit's rebuild at the stage where marginal starters -- C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Jeimer Candelario, JaCoby Jones -- are about to be replaced by higher-upside young players at the first sign that the prospects are ready and/or the big leaguers are slumping.
Jorge Mateo is an 80-grade runner who could swipe 30 bags and hit 15-20 homers while playing middle infield and/or center field, but he has been inconsistent throughout his career and is a bit of a free swinger. A Tony Kemp/Franklin Barreto platoon at second base represents a potential opening for him. The top two Braves prospects are both young center fielders in Triple-A, and it's unclear which one would get the call first -- Cristian Pache is on the 40-man and is an elite defender, Drew Waters has more offensive upside -- but topping Ender Inciarte, Austin Riley, Nick Markakis and Adam Duvall for the third-best outfielder in Atlanta seems doable for them at some point this year.
Andres Gimenez is a slick-gloved hit-first shortstop with speed and instincts who will open his year in Triple-A but is stuck behind Amed Rosario, Robinson Cano and Jeff McNeil, so he'll need a strong season and an injury ahead of him to create an opportunity. There are a lot of options for the last spot that will likely have to wait until later in the year for a promotion (Jake Cronenworth, C.J. Chatham, Andy Young, Thairo Estrada, Willi Castro and more beyond them), but Ryan McKenna has standout speed and the weakest lineup to crack for an easier opportunity.
Power sources and corner players
1. Jo Adell, LF, Los Angeles Angels
2. Nick Solak, 2B, Texas Rangers
3. Alec Bohm, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies
4. Brendan Rodgers, 2B, Colorado Rockies
5. Dylan Carlson, LF, St. Louis Cardinals
6. Ryan Mountcastle, LF, Baltimore Orioles
7. Lewin Diaz, 1B, Miami Marlins
8. Bobby Dalbec, 3B, Boston Red Sox
9. Jesus Sanchez, RF, Marlins
10. Jaylin Davis, LF, San Francisco Giants
11. Zack Collins, 1B, Chicago White Sox
Jo Adell isn't on the 40-man but he shouldn't spend much time in Triple-A with the Angels' right-field mix consisting of a Brian Goodwin/David Fletcher platoon. Adell could hit .260 with 40 bombs but is a bit of a power-focused free swinger, so it may take a little time for him to settle in at the big league level. Nick Solak looks set to be a utility guy who platoons with Ronald Guzman at first base, or maybe he just starts in left field over Willie Calhoun. Solak may be the third-best hitter on the team and is just OK at second base, but that still leaves first base, left field and designated hitter for lineup slots he can help from. He used to be a plus runner and average defender at second base but has now regressed in both areas, though he remains at least an average hitter with average game power and possibly more.
Alec Bohm will open in Triple-A after punishing three levels in his full-season pro debut. He could be an above-average hitter with above-average power as soon as late 2020 and he needs to eclipse Jean Segura or Scott Kingery to get a lineup spot. Brendan Rodgers needs to beat a Ryan McMahon/Garrett Hampson platoon to get a spot at second base, and it's still Coors Field, but he has yet to play much after shoulder surgery. Dylan Carlson will open in Triple-A, isn't on the 40-man and is seen as a long-term answer, so he'll likely need an injury and/or a couple of slumps for a spot to open up, so it may be later in the season.
Ryan Mountcastle could fit in at left field, first base or designated hitter, and the Orioles' lineup is full of holes, so there's a short path to playing time, but his aggressive approach at the plate could lead to a slow start against MLB pitching. Bobby Dalbec is stuck behind Rafael Devers but could capably play any corner spot or DH if needed; he has the power to make a quick impact, as Michael Chavis did last season.
Lewin Diaz is simply waiting for when/if waiver claim Jesus Aguilar fails, but that's also his only path to playing time with no DH in the NL (unless that rule gets changed this year) and he's more of a steady than spectacular option. Jesus Sanchez has electric bat speed and raw power to go with solid bat control but is also a free swinger. Monte Harrison is ahead of him in the pecking order of outfield promotions if Isan Diaz or Lewis Brinson falters, and Sanchez is a corners-only outfielder.
Jaylin Davis has big power, and the Giants' outfield is manned by a number of Band-Aid types; he'll get a shot at some point but is more of a role player. Zack Collins has huge power and a late-count approach to get to that power, but he'll never hit for average and is likely just a bench bat to spell Jose Abreu and Edwin Encarnacion. He could catch just enough to be eligible in some leagues. If there's an extended absence from one of them, 2019 third overall pick Andrew Vaughn may be the ultimate answer, but he looks more set for a 2021 debut.
There are a glut of other options for this list that make some sense if one key injury or sustained slump opens up a spot for more than a few weeks: Brent Rooker or Alex Kirilloff for the Twins, Seth Beer or Kevin Cron for the D-backs, Edwin Rios or D.J. Peters for the Dodgers, Abraham Toro for the Astros and Tyler Nevin for the Rockies.
Catchers
1. Michael Perez, C, Tampa Bay Rays
2. Daulton Varsho, C/UT, Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Keibert Ruiz, C, Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Alex Jackson, C, Atlanta Braves
5. Joey Bart, C, San Francisco Giants
6. Tyler Stephenson, C, Cincinnati Reds
7. Andrew Knizner, C, St. Louis Cardinals
8. Garrett Stubbs, C, Houston Astros
9. Jake Rogers, C, Detroit Tigers
Michael Perez will open the season as Mike Zunino's backup in Tampa Bay, potentially in a beneficial platoon role (Perez is left-handed), without strong competition from Triple-A to challenge his spot. Daulton Varsho hasn't played in Triple-A yet and isn't on the 40-man but has plus contact skills, plus speed and can passably play almost any position on the field; he's a sneaky-great prospect who could force his way into the lineup. Keibert Ruiz is the third catcher for the Dodgers and is on the 40-man, gifted with elite contact and framing skills but with Austin Barnes (career-high 262 PA) ahead of him for the job of backing up Will Smith.
Alex Jackson is another third catcher on the 40-man and his carrying tool is huge raw power; one Tyler Flowers injury and Jackson may take his job for good. Joey Bart is the best catching prospect in the game but has barely played in Double-A; he'll be taking Buster Posey's job at some point, but that may be in early 2021. Tyler Stephenson is also a Top 100 prospect and is only blocked by a troika of Tucker Barnhart, Curt Casali and Kyle Farmer, but he hasn't played in Triple-A and probably won't be a short-term option, so the planets need to align with a big season and a slot opening up.
Andrew Knizner, Garrett Stubbs and Jake Rogers are all third catchers on their organization's 40-man roster and are ranked in order of offensive impact but are likely limited to backup roles for the foreseeable future.