By saying he will not play this season for a reduced salary, Rays starter Blake Snell triggered a cacophony of angry responses the other day -- a tidal wave of social media backlash, talk-show lectures (delivered from here, among other lecterns) and, under the radar, expressions of disgust from some of Snell's peers who are more affixed to national job losses that have resulted from the coronavirus pandemic.
But in a weird sort of way, Snell's blunt but earnest summation of how he and others in the union feel ("He ain't lyin'," said Bryce Harper) may work for the MLB Players Association, much in the same way that Randy Johnson's fastball over John Kruk's head in the 1993 All-Star Game raised some questions about the Big Unit's predictability. There's been an assumption that the players would participate if the prospect of playing games emerged in this year of the coronavirus, but Snell's words underscored the doubts about this, at a time when the industry is hemorrhaging financially, with the river of revenue dry.
The union leadership has leverage in this moment, an unusual and probably unexpected opportunity to help the players well beyond this year -- if the leadership plays this deftly, thinks big picture and focuses on more than just 2020 salaries. And if MLBPA chief Tony Clark plays this poorly, as he did in the 2016 collective bargaining negotiations, the leverage pendulum will swing sharply and the union could be driven to its most vulnerable position in a half-century.
As in other industries, Major League Baseball is faced with catastrophic financial losses, and it is clearly trying to make that case privately -- and publicly, through documents that landed magically in the hands of The Associated Press on Saturday. It's possible that the overall industry picture is not quite as dire as those numbers suggest, because whenever the shutdown ends, baseball stands to rebound more quickly than other businesses. But the current reality is that there are no games and no revenue, and some teams are far more vulnerable financially than others.
Faced with having to host games in empty stadiums, the owners have asked the players to take salary rollbacks for 2020, and to date, Clark has strongly rejected this concept, saying the negotiations on that topic were settled in March. Rather, Clark and agent Scott Boras -- who is perceived by management officials and other agents to have high influence with Clark and lead negotiator Bruce Meyer -- have argued that in the proposed 82-game season, the players should get their 2020 salaries, prorated on a per-game basis.
Clark could stick to that simple argument, cling to that one issue, and it may be that with some short-term concessions, like salary deferrals, MLB would have a chance to generate the product it desperately needs to honor its side of its broadcast agreements, and to prop up battered franchise values.
Or Clark could parlay this into a larger discussion, to address the union's big-picture wish list. With this 2020 standoff, he's in position to arrange better terms in the next collective bargaining agreement, perhaps fashioning an extension that wraps the last year of the current CBA into a deal that lasts well beyond the 2021 expiration.
Clark might be able to bolster free agency for years to come, a big player concern in recent years. The union could attack service-time manipulation, which has become standard operating procedure among almost all teams. The union could insist that through draft rule adjustments, MLB address the practice of tanking, which was popularized with the success of the Astros. Clark could ask that MLB raise minimum salaries for young players.
There is no indication from sources that the idea of this sort of broader discussion has been broached by either side in recent days, and in light of the recent distrust between the two sides -- I think the working relationship between MLB and the union is the worst it has been in 25 years -- there's no reason to expect that big-picture conversations will start. But with a rapid pivot -- the clock is ticking -- and with intense value assessment, Clark could explore what is possible.
Or the entrenchment could continue, the two sides bunkered. That's an approach that could pay off in the short term for the players, if the fight for the 2020 salaries were to be won, but would also bear the inherent risk of a counterattack down the road.
It's no secret that Major League Baseball is frustrated in its relationship with Clark's regime. When the late Michael Weiner ran the Players Association, he and commissioner Rob Manfred (then the league's chief negotiator under Bud Selig) debated and haggled and argued and made many deals together, and while some agents now believe that the union surrendered too much ground on the draft slot system and other elements, it's inarguable that prosperity on both sides advanced. Industry revenue, player compensation and franchise values have all risen exponentially since the resolution of the 1994-95 work stoppage.
But the détente has all but evaporated, particularly in the aftermath of the 2016 CBA, which has been a disaster for the players, in how it fostered a soft salary cap and failed to address tanking. Clark and Manfred have been at loggerheads, and if the league walks away from this moment with no deal and no financial relief -- and possibly no baseball in 2020 -- its big-picture strategy may well shift for the next CBA talks, which would promise to be contentious.
"They would be coming for blood," one agent said. "They would be coming to get back the ground they lost this year."
And the leverage of that moment would be very different; that would be a protracted fight for which the union would not be nearly as well-positioned.
The union's moment -- Clark's moment -- is now.
On the Baseball Tonight podcast
Friday: Mets play-by-play man Gary Cohen has stories -- about Bartolo Colon's home run, Wilmer Flores' tears, the ascension of Pete Alonso, and Matt Harvey; Giants announcer Duane Kuiper and Todd Radom review the history of San Francisco ballparks.
Thursday: NBA legend Charles Barkley is a huge baseball fan, and he has stories about Henry Aaron, Willie Mays, Bo Jackson, Max Scherzer -- and about the coronavirus scare he shared with Mike Trout. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel breaks down the top of the MLB draft and discusses Blake Snell's blunt thoughts.
Wednesday: Get Up host Mike Greenberg remembers the day he was kicked out of the Cubs' clubhouse and his shuttle ride with Bo Jackson, among other stories; Paul Hembekides, wild partier and baseball nerd.
Tuesday: Dan Shulman has called some of the biggest moments in the past decade, and he has backstories on the Jose Bautista bat flip, David Freese's epic Game 6 performance, and his broadcast on the night Osama Bin Laden was killed; Jesse Rogers on the MLB proposal immediately rejected by the players.
Monday: Chris Antonetti, head of baseball operations for the Indians, has stories about Game 7 of the 2016 World Series, stalking Yankees GM Brian Cashman for a trade, making a deal on a climbing wall and CC Sabathia; Sarah Langs of MLB.com talks about the '16 World Series.