Since the coronavirus pandemic shut down baseball in March, an avalanche of daily concerns has cascaded onto club officials and managers. The health of the players and staff. Proper food and shelter for foreign-born players. The daily review of home workouts. Budget problems, and the consideration of who gets furloughed, who gets fired.
Only now, after the players' association and Major League Baseball began discussions about the possible reopening of baseball earlier this week, are teams beginning to dig into possible strategic considerations in an 82-game season that starts in July. "These are all good questions to think about," one executive said this week as he discussed some of the decisions teams will have to weigh as they prepare for a truncated season that might or might not get off the ground. "But I'd bet that there are general managers who haven't even thought about this stuff."
Here are four ways teams might attack the shortened season:
1. This could be the year of the (very) young pitching prospect.
No formal announcement has been made about what will happen with the minor leagues, but the major league product is the clear priority and it would surprise no one if there are no games in the minors this year. That would alter the context dramatically as teams decide what to do with their best pitching talent, particularly those pitchers who have advanced to high-A ball or above.
Because the season would be cut in half, the innings limits typically used to protect pitchers would mostly be obsolete -- there won't be enough starts for the best young arms to rack up more than 100 innings. And the big leagues might be the only developmental opportunity available to prospects this year.
Teams could consider putting the best of their young talent in the big leagues in 2020, so that at the very least, the pitchers would get some innings and learn, generally without bearing the risk of being overworked in what amounts to a half-season. "It would be dumb to not reconsider your plans," one staffer said. "We'd have no alternatives for development."
For example: The Toronto Blue Jays had assigned top prospect Nate Pearson to Triple-A this spring. Without a minor league season, the Blue Jays could insert Pearson into the big league rotation, and so long as he isn't overwhelmed, they could give him 70 to 90 innings to give him a better chance to be ready for 2021 -- and, in light of his high talent ceiling, he might also help the Jays win more games this year.
The San Diego Padres have this option with Mackenzie Gore and others. The Kansas City Royals are stacked with young starting pitching at the top of their farm system. By using the best young starting pitchers in the big leagues, the very worst outcome is this would provide an opportunity for performance maturation -- rare for players in 2020, in all likelihood -- and the best outcome might be that the talented newcomers make a performance difference in the rotation.
By the way: Because of an agreement between the union and Major League Baseball about rookie service time, that probably won't be an issue for most teams as they consider promotion. If the two sides play 82 games over 90 days in 2020, the rookies would be credited with those 90 days, rather than a full year.
2. You can't rush the pitchers back.
This is a refrain being repeated throughout the industry in recent days, as clubs prepare to ramp up pitch counts for a second time this year. The expectation is that the second spring training will last about three weeks, and while pitchers maintain their conditioning more consistently than their baseball ancestors and throw harder than ever, some will not have built up enough arm strength if and when the season begins.
"You can't rush it," said one manager, who recalled the outset of the '95 season, when there were a rash of pitcher breakdowns following the settlement of the strike and a spring training that lasted less than three weeks. "You have to be patient."
That means trusting organizational depth and using more relievers to fill in for the innings starting pitchers aren't ready to assume.
3. There might be more urgency as managers make lineup choices.
In a 162-game season, there is more time for front offices to wait for a player to work through a slump. In an 82-game season, however, the margin for error is reduced, meaning teams are more apt to explore alternatives to a struggling player.
This is common operating procedure in winter ball, and that kind of competitive metabolism might manifest in MLB in 2020.
4. In such an unusual season, winning the mental grind could become an even greater focus.
Some players might lose their typical equilibrium, staffers believe, because everything will be so different and there might be greater reasons to drift into frustration. The interrupted training of the spring. The uncertainty of the schedule. The concern over possible illness. The possible disruption of family life. The heightened importance of each game in a shortened season.
There might be teams that collectively drift under those circumstances -- an opportunity for feasting for their opponents, "and you want to be in position to take advantage of that," one official said.