The longer that baseball's doors are closed because of the coronavirus, the greater the cost, as is the case with every other business. Team officials and player agents are bracing for what they expect to be a dramatic shift in the financial landscape if the sport is shut down for the season.
What that will look like is impossible to know for sure, but projections are being constructed. There is already anticipation that if a sizable portion of the 2020 season is lost, there will be a natural response among clubs to scale back, to reduce vulnerability, to offset the hit to revenue. Whenever the game returns, there may well be a flurry of player movement that is driven by the need to unload as much debt as possible. Whenever clubs get the go-ahead to make deals again, it could be similar to the stock market at the opening bell on those days when bad news is expected.
As some clubs look ahead, they forecast a time when a defining characteristic for franchises might be the volume of long-term deals and dollars remaining on the books -- deals negotiated before the coronavirus changed the world, including baseball's yardsticks for defining value.
Take the Chicago White Sox, for example, a team that has gone through years of rebuilding to now be at the edge of contention. To goose their push to reach the top of the American League Central, the White Sox aggressively dove into the free-agent market over the winter, signing catcher Yasmani Grandal to a four-year, $73 million contract and pitcher Dallas Keuchel to a three-year, $55.5 million deal. Jose Abreu re-signed with Chicago at $50 million over the next three years. Additionally, they have put together a flurry of deals with their young players -- Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez -- under the accepted premise that it's better to pay a little more guaranteed money at the outset of a contract to save money at the back end of the deal.
What the White Sox and other teams could not have known is those deals signed under the pre-coronavirus business models may not have the same context as anticipated.
If, in the face of industry losses, future free-agent contracts are scaled back, then the contracts for Grandal, Keuchel and Abreu will appear outsized. The White Sox won't enjoy the benefits of the per-dollar production in the earliest period of the Moncada and Anderson contracts they rightly anticipated. Moncada was set to make $1.8 million this year, but next year, his salary will jump to $6.8 million. Anderson makes $4 million this year, and he'll be more expensive next season, at $7.25 million.
No team or baseball executive could be faulted for situations like this; it's serendipitous.
As teams move forward into the next financial landscape, whatever that footing is, some clubs may be better positioned than others.
Cubs: Whatever negotiations that occurred with core players Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Willson Contreras have not resulted in any long-term deals. Therefore the Cubs will have a lot of flexibility to adapt to any future shift in the business. This season is the last in Jon Lester's six-year, $155 million deal, and over the 2021-23 seasons, the Cubs will owe $65 million to Jason Heyward, $59 million to Yu Darvish, and $43.5 million to Kyle Hendricks.
But they aren't currently obligated to big, big dollars in the way that the Yankees are with Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton.
Giants: This is a rebuilding year for San Francisco, as Farhan Zaidi and his staff continue to bolster the organization's talent while riding out the last of the long-term contracts on the books. Jeff Samardzija's deal will expire after this year, and 2021 is likely to be the last in the contracts of Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford and Johnny Cueto. Evan Longoria's contract runs through the 2022 season, with an option for 2023.
Beyond that? Nothing. A blank slate for a franchise in one of the sport's biggest markets.
Dodgers: Not only have the Dodgers built one of the game's best player development systems, but they have mostly worked to avoid big, long-term contracts (although they would have gladly taken on Cole for a deal close to what he got from the Yankees had he not chosen to play in New York.) The Dodgers have only a handful of multiyear deals on their books. This is the last year of Justin Turner's four-year deal. The Red Sox are paying half of the $96 million that David Price is scheduled to make from 2020 to '22. Kenley Jansen, Clayton Kershaw, Joe Kelly and Chris Taylor are signed through 2021. A.J. Pollock is owed $36 million for the 2021-22 seasons.
Mariners: In the midst of its latest rebuilding effort, Seattle has two years remaining in its contract with Kyle Seager and two years with Yusei Kikuchi, at $16 million this year and $17 million for next season. Marco Gonzales has a midlevel deal that runs through 2024, for a total of $31 million. That's it, however.
Rangers: When the last offseason began, agents and club executives expected that Texas would be among the most aggressive teams in free agency, one of the biggest spenders; a common prediction was that Anthony Rendon would land in Arlington. But the Rangers were far more conservative than expected -- and as it turns out, Texas doesn't have a mass of debt at this awful moment in industry history. The Rangers are locked into about $100 million in contracts beyond the 2020 season, the bulk of that tied into middle infielders Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor, who are set to make $53 million for 2021-22.
Other teams have a more problematic payroll situation, including:
Padres: San Diego stands out in this regard as Manny Machado is signed through 2028, with about $270 million left on the books for his deal; Eric Hosmer is signed through 2025, with $68 million of that to be paid for 2021-25; and Wil Myers is under contract for $45 million for 2021-22.
Angels: Mike Trout will continue to be paid like the best player in baseball, at $37 million annually through the 2030 season. Newly signed third baseman Anthony Rendon will make $35 million a year under the terms of his deal. That means the Angels will pay two players $72 million (on average) annually through 2026 -- and if the team's payroll is reduced, Trout and Rendon will absorb a greater percentage of the club's budget than expected when L.A. signed those contracts.
Rockies: A shift in the industry's finances is bound to change the context for Nolan Arenado and the Rockies in their troubled relationship. If the Rockies have to cut payroll in future years, then Arenado's salary will absorb a greater percentage of their budget -- but moving him and his big contract may become even more difficult for Colorado in the face of a broader effort among teams to reduce costs.
And if free-agent deals are scaled back to reflect a new norm in baseball's business, then the possibility of opting out of his contract after the 2021 season could bring more uncertainty for Arenado about replicating the dollars in his current deal ($234,000,000 over the next seven years).
The industry X factor in all of this: the upcoming negotiations between Major League Baseball and the players' association, with the collective bargaining agreement set to expire in 19 months. Will the sides collaborate to adjust to whatever new normal evolves? Would MLB ask for some adjustments to the terms of existing contracts in return for other guarantees for the players? Will the union's concerns about service time manipulation and free agency be addressed? Will the sides find a way to prevent widespread tanking, which might appear to be an even more attractive strategy in the wake of franchise financial losses?
For the sake of the industry, what is needed now more than ever is a renewed spirit of cooperation -- a shared imagination -- to face challenges that nobody could have imagined even six weeks ago.
On the Baseball Tonight podcast
Friday: Nationals manager Dave Martinez, who shares stories from his team's championship run and reveals the one souvenir he really, really wants (and maybe can't have).
Thursday: Buck Showalter, who has tales about Deion Sanders, George Steinbrenner, Don Mattingly, Randy Johnson and Alex Rodriguez, and opinions about forthcoming rule changes.
Wednesday: Former Giants manager Bruce Bochy talks about catching at the moment that Pete Rose set baseball's all-time hit record, eavesdropping on a pivotal conversation between Ted Williams and Tony Gwynn, and shares his memories of Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey and Tim Lincecum -- while offering his strong feelings about managing again.
Tuesday: Ben McDonald, Cal Ripken's teammate for years, has stories about the Iron Man -- about his unusual ability to heal, the clubhouse wrestling, and how McDonald risked a suspension to witness the milestone.
Monday: Joe Maddon remembers the pivotal moments from Game 7 of the 2016 World Series.