After an elite eight marked by one if-it-were-real historic comeback, we're down to the two LCS matchups. While we'll let you discover the identity of the four remaining teams by reading on, it seems to be a quartet of survivors appropriate to the theme of this tournament. All four were very good, perhaps great, clubs who fell short of a title. The reasons for all four were different, but all had plenty of reasons for lingering regret. Of course, getting this far is potentially bittersweet: It's the last hump that matters for these near-miss teams.
Read on for a series-by-series recap of the third round, and to see who advanced to the LCS. We'll unveil those results tomorrow.
Jump to American League matchups:
(No. 1) 2001 Mariners vs. (No. 4) vs. (No. 12) 2011 Rangers
(No. 3) 1995 Indians vs. (No. 7) 1977 Royals
Jump to National League matchups:
(No. 1) 1998 Astros vs. (No. 12) 1993 Phillies
(No. 3) 1994 Expos vs. (No. 7)vs. (No. 15) 2009 Rockies
See the final LCS matchups and all third-round teams
How we determined our 32-team bracket
American League Third Round
(All series best-of-seven)
(No. 1 seed) 2001 Seattle Mariners beat (No. 8) 2011 Texas Rangers 4-1
In addition to Seattle's record-tying 116 wins in 2001, that season is also remembered as Ichiro Suzuki's historic rookie season, when as a 27-year-old, he was the AL's MVP and Rookie of the Year. Ichiro has had a solid, unspectacular run so far in our tournament, hitting .321 and leading the Mariners with five steals. Still, just as with the real 2001 Mariners, our sim version is about more than Ichiro. In fact, teammate Mike Cameron is probably the MVP of the AL bracket thus far.
Cameron struggled for much of Seattle's dismantling of Texas but still managed to come up with the biggest hit of the series, an extra-innings homer to end things in the decisive Game 5. Cameron was at his peak in 2001, posting career highs in runs, RBIs and bWAR while winning the first of his three career Gold Gloves. He had a very good career that fell a tier or three shy of the Cooperstown threshold. Still, he was at the heart of postseason teams in Seattle, San Diego and Milwaukee. He never did get into a World Series. With that big homer off against the Rangers, he's one step closer to redeeming his virtual second chance at finally getting to the Fall Classic.
Game 1: Mariners 4, Rangers 3. Suzuki singled, stole second and scored on Edgar Martinez's two-out grounder to win it in the bottom of the ninth.
Game 2: Rangers 5, Mariners 4. Josh Hamilton's three-run homer backed Colby Lewis, who won for the fourth time in the tourney.
Game 3: Mariners 5, Rangers 1. Bret Boone had three hits and scored three runs, and Aaron Sele held Texas to one run over 7 ⅓ innings.
Game 4: Mariners 9, Rangers 2. After Adrian Beltre tied the game with his tourney-leading seventh homer in the fourth, John Olerud drove in four runs as Seattle pulled way.
Game 5: Mariners 5, Rangers 3, 12 innings. Nelson Cruz temporarily rescued Texas with a tying, two-out RBI double in the ninth off Kaz Suzuki, but Cameron's two-run homer in the 12th off Mark Lowe pushed the Mariners into the ALCS.
MVP: Olerud, Mariners (.381, 8 RBIs)
Key stat: Action! PC Baseball, the software used to run our simulated tournament, tracks "great" defensive plays. The Mariners lead all teams in the tournament with 30, while Cameron's nine great plays in center field are tied with Colorado's Troy Tulowitzki for the most by any defender at any position. According to Baseball-Reference.com, Seattle's 104 defensive runs above average in 2001 were more than twice as many as any other team in the AL.
Clinching box score:
Clinching game details: Rangers Ballpark | Time 4:34
2B: Wilson, D (2), Guillen (1); Cruz, N (4)
HR: Cameron (6) off Lowe (1) in the 12th with 1 on base, 350 feet; Kinsler (1) off Moyer (2) in the 5th with bases empty, 339 feet
SB: McLemore( 4); Kinsler (3), Beltre(1)
Game MVP: Jamie Moyer
(No. 7) 1977 Kansas City Royals beat (No. 3) 1995 Cleveland Indians 4-2
The glory days of the Royals ran from roughly 1976, when Kansas City first made the postseason, to 1985, when they won the franchise's first championship. What's most remembered about those teams are George Brett's hitting, Frank White's fielding, the intensity of Hal McRae and the fleetness afoot of speedsters like Willie Wilson. Later on, the young starters Danny Jackson, Bret Saberhagen and Mark Gubicza moved to the forefront. An overlooked key to those great Royals teams was their bullpens, featuring standouts like Marty Pattin, Doug Bird, Steve Mingori, Al Hrabosky and, later, Dan Quisenberry. During that decade, the Royals led the majors in FanGraphs' version of win probability added from relievers.
For a time, the best of all of them might have been Mark Littell. Littell had a short career that was clipped by elbow trouble, but from 1976 to 1979, only five big-league relievers had a higher WPA, and two of them -- Bruce Sutter and Goose Gossage -- are in the Hall of Fame. Littell's name most often comes up these days because he gave up the most painful homer in Royals history, the pennant-winning shot by the Yankees' Chris Chambliss in the 1976 ALCS. Littell had faced 446 batters to that point of the season. He had given up one home run.
Littell was back in the postseason the next year with Kansas City, but along with the rest of the best-in-team-history Royals, he again fell short of a pennant. After that season, he was dealt to St. Louis along with one announcer (Buck Martinez) in exchange for another announcer (Hrabosky). Littell enjoyed two excellent seasons for the Cardinals before the elbow problems surfaced.
If this tournament is a cosmic second chance for long-retired performers like Littell, he is making the best of it. He has thrown 10 ⅓ scoreless innings with 18 strikeouts, while converting all four of his save chances. He has been part of a lockdown Royals bullpen that has posted a 1.54 ERA through three rounds. Now, as in 1976 and 1977, Littell and the Royals stand on the virtual precipice of a World Series.
Game 1: Royals 2, Indians 1. Larry Gura put up 6⅓ shutout innings, Brett stroked an RBI single, and Littell retired all four batters he faced to close it out.
Game 2: Royals 3, Indians 1. Down two, the Indians got a leadoff single from Eddie Murray and a walk from Jim Thome to start the ninth before Littell struck out Manny Ramirez, Paul Sorrento and Sandy Alomar Jr. in order.
Game 3: Indians 5, Royals 4. Orel Hershiser pitched into the seventh, and Jose Mesa retired K.C. in order in the ninth for the save.
Game 4: Royals 5, Indians 1. Paul Splittorff held the Indians to a lone run over eight innings and Amos Otis hit a two-run homer off Dennis Martinez.
Game 5: Indians 6, Royals 1. Thome's three-run homer off Pattin broke open a close game in the eighth.
Game 6: Royals 5, Indians 2. Dennis Lenard scattered 12 hits in a complete-game win, backed by a two-run homer from Al Cowens.
MVP: Littell, Royals (0 R, 3 IP, 7 SO, two saves)
Key stat: While pitching has carried the Royals in the tournament, manager Whitey Herzog has done his thing in heating up the basepaths; Kansas City leads all teams in steals (30) and times caught (17).
Clinching box score:
Clinching game details: Jacobs Field | Time 3:21
E: Baerga (4), Sorrento (2)
HR: Cowens (2) off Hill (3) in the 1st with 1 on base, 338 feet; Ramirez (3) off Leonard(5) in the 2nd with bases empty, 332 feet
SB: Lofton (9)
CS: Brett (3); Vizquel (3); Lofton (1)
Game MVP: Al Cowens
National League Third Round
(All series best-of-seven)
(No. 12) 1993 Philadelphia Phillies beat (No. 1) 1998 Houston Astros 4-1
There are any number of players who bob up to become the best at something for a short period of time in baseball. If their time at the pinnacle is brief, it's easy to eventually forget just how good that player was, even if only for a little while. An example: There were a couple of years in the early '90s, including the 1993 season represented here by the Phillies, in which Dave Hollins was maybe the best third baseman in the National League.
According to Baseball-Reference.com, Hollins' 9.6 bWAR over the 1992-93 seasons were a full two wins better than the Giants' Matt Williams (7.6) and Atlanta's Terry Pendleton (7.3). In the 1993 NLCS, Hollins hit a two-run homer off Greg Maddux during the Phillies' pennant-clinching win over the Braves, which is about as good as it gets. Hollins played in the majors until 2002, but he couldn't retain his place atop the hot corner pecking order.
Hollins has keyed the Phillies' run so far in the Second-Chance World Series derby, taking MVP honors as Philadelphia knocked out the NL's top-seeded Astros in the elite eight. His six homers are tied for second among all players in the simulation, and his 16 RBIs are tied for fourth. It's not real, we know. But it does help remind us that at one time, Hollins was a really good major leaguer.
Game 1: Astros 9, Phillies 7. Craig Biggio stroked a go-ahead, two-run single in the eighth and scored an insurance run on Derek Bell's single.
Game 2: Phillies 9, Astros 1. Hollins and Darren Daulton homered to back Danny Jackson's 7⅓ solid innings.
Game 3: Phillies 8, Astros 1. Philly broke it open with a five-run eighth, capped by Wes Chamberlain's bases-loaded triple.
Game 4: Phillies 6, Astros 4. Phils starter Tommy Greene slammed the door after giving up four runs in the first, and Hollins capped a five-run seventh with a two-run double.
Game 5: Phillies 4, Astros 3. Hollins' three-run homer in the first gave the Phillies a lead they never relinquished.
MVP: Hollins, Phillies (.358, 3 HRs, 10 RBIs, .947 slugging percentage)
Key stat: Starting only against left-handers, Pete Incaviglia has 16 RBIs in 29 plate appearances during the tournament.
Clinching box score:
Clinching game details: Veterans Stadium | Time 2:55
E: Mulholland (1)
2B: Biggio (5); Dykstra(5)
3B: Gutierrez (2)
HR: Hollins (6) off Reynolds (3) in the 1st with 2 on base, 333 feet
SB: Thompson(2)
CS: Biggio (4)
Game MVP: Dave Hollins
(No. 3) 1994 Montreal Expos beat (No. 6) 2009 Colorado Rockies 4-3
If the real Pedro Martinez is out there following this, the sequence of events here might look very familiar. As with his '04 Red Sox, his '94 Expos fell into an 0-3 hole in a playoff series. This time, rather than the hated Yankees, it was the Cinderella Rockies who had Pedro's team in a stranglehold, only to allow it to escape and ultimately roar back with four straight wins. Just like that, the unrequited Expos gain a berth in the NLCS against the '93 Phillies. We'll never know what would have really happened for the '94 Expos, had they gotten to play that October in a strike-free universe. If this is any indication, we might have missed out on even more than we realized.
Game 1: Rockies 5, Expos 4. Larry Walker's two-run homer in the ninth chased Rockies closer Huston Street, but Franklin Morales got Mitch Webster on a grounder with two on to end it.
Game 2: Rockies 11, Expos 3. Troy Tulowitzki continued his hot tournament with two doubles and three RBIs as the Rockies headed back to Coors Field with a 2-0 lead.
Game 3: Rockies 8, Expos 4. Chris Iannetta homered twice, drove in six runs and hit a grand slam to cap a six-run fifth that helped Colorado put an apparent hammerlock on the series.
Game 4: Expos 3, Rockies 0. Butch Henry, Jeff Shaw and John Wetteland combined on a five-hit shutout to keep the Expos alive.
Game 5: Expos 11, Rockies 5. Walker crushed a three-run homer, scored three runs, and stole a base as Montreal sent the series back to Olympic Stadium.
Game 6: Expos 2, Rockies 1. Montreal forced a seventh game, getting seven strong innings from Ken Hill and Marquis Grissom's tie-breaking solo homer in the seventh.
Game 7: Expos 7, Rockies 2. Montreal jumped on Jorge de la Rosa for six runs early behind two-run homers from Walker and Sean Berry, as the Expos completed their stunning comeback.
MVP: Larry Walker Expos (.258, 3 HRs, 7 RBIs, 8 runs scored)
Key stat: After falling behind three games to none, the Expos never trailed over the last four games of the series.
Clinching box score:
Clinching game details: Olympic Stadium | Time 3:16
E: Iannetta (1), Fowler (2), Berry (4), Fassero (1)
2B: Helton (4), Iannetta (4)
3B: Grissom (1)
HR: Walker, L (5) off de la Rosa (3) in the 1st with 1 on base, 328 feet; Berry (4) off de la Rosa (4) in the 2nd with 1 on base, 329 feet
SB: Grissom (7)
Game MVP: Jeff Fassero
LCS Matchups
AMERICAN LEAGUE
(No. 1) 2001 Seattle Mariners vs. (No. 7) 1977 Kansas City Royals
NATIONAL LEAGUE
(No. 3) 1994 Montreal Expos vs. (No. 12) 1993 Philadelphia Phillies
ALL-ELITE EIGHT TEAM
P: Mark Littell, Royals
C: Chris Iannetta, Rockies
1B: John Olerud, Mariners
2B: Craig Biggio, Astros
3B: Dave Hollins, Phillies
SS: Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
LF: Stan Javier, Mariners
CF: Lenny Dykstra, Phillies
RF: Larry Walker, Expos
DH: Hal McRae, Royals
Elite Eight MVP: Hollins