FORT MYERS, Fla. -- The camps have opened. Left-handers and right-handers are building their pitch counts. New gloves are being oiled, bent and broken in. Some players are learning new positions. Hitters have worked offseason swing changes into their first rounds of spring batting practice. Opening Day is 39 days away, meaning little more than a month for final adjustments.
But there is really no way for the Houston Astros to prepare for what looms this year when they leave their Minute Maid Park cocoon, and perhaps even in moments when they are in that safe zone of home.
Set aside the question of on-field retaliation for the Astros' sign stealing that has been raised by Mike Clevinger, Ross Stripling and others, prompting Dusty Baker to push back Saturday on the hints at violence. What the Astros seem destined to experience is a most extreme form of negative reinforcement.
Thousands upon thousands of fans heaping anger, frustration, bitterness and whatever other emotions they care to temporarily eject from their lives at a small group of men in orange uniforms, tearing at whatever mental scar tissue each of the Astros players can construct day to day.
Over the past week, some players on other teams have watched the backlash to the Astros' repeated public relations debacles and observed the avalanche of fan response on Twitter -- undoubtedly fueled by the unprecedented verbal attacks of the Astros' professional peers -- and have wondered about the impact on the players who must try to work within that fan reaction.
And there is no escape. Carlos Correa pushed back against some of the criticism in a series of interviews Saturday, aiming to absolve teammate Jose Altuve while absurdly trying to separate moments when the 2017 Astros cheated from when they did not -- a futile exercise.
When the career epitaphs of the 2017 Astros are written, there will inevitably be some mention in the first or second or third paragraph of cheating and illicit sign stealing. There might be more revelations from more investigations, and other teams and players might be implicated, but the legacy foundation of the '17 Astros was laid the moment commissioner Rob Manfred issued his report last month and has been cemented by their sometimes nonsensical and tone-deaf responses in the aftermath.
A more productive use of time for the Astros now will be the attempted construction of emotional breastworks for what's to come. "That is going to be tough for some of them," said a veteran on another team. "It'll get even worse if they start badly or go into a slump."
Most of what players typically experience in visiting ballparks is benign and not really that personal -- to borrow a thought from Jerry Seinfeld, it's mostly about the laundry. But not with the Astros this season. If 2017 was the summer of the trash-can bang, you can bet that 2020 will be the Year of the Trash Can, with fans hoisting images of trash cans or signs referencing trash cans, maybe even actual trash-can lids if they manage to haul them in past security. They're going to yell about cheating; they're going to scream about cheaters; and, as one player from another team mentioned the other day, it will be a challenge for the Houston hitters to cope with this as they try to execute the most difficult act in sports -- hitting baseballs zipping and veering at speeds ranging from 70 to 100 mph.
"Imagine that you are hitless in a game, or a series, and you're trying to dig in -- and that stuff [from the fans] starts to get into your head," one player said. "That you're not good enough, that you won the World Series only because you knew what [pitch] was coming, that you're a cheater. For three or four days in a series [on the road], that's all you're going to hear, and you have to do the best you can to keep that stuff out of your head and do your job. It's not going to be easy, especially when you are struggling."
Every hitter has slumps every year, and every hitter works to ward off the despair that can develop. For the Astros, that challenge will be complicated by the Niagara Falls of brutal feedback they will get day after day.
As others have shown, it's not impossible to navigate such a situation. As Barry Bonds moved closer to breaking Hank Aaron's home run record, the San Francisco Giants led the majors in road attendance as a lot of fans turned out to boo him -- and Bonds thrived, his OPS never falling below .999. In contrast, Roberto Alomar was booed in every road game after his 1996 spitting incident, and he seemed more bothered by it, the joy drifting away from his play.
Baker can be a private source of perspective for the players, "which is why he might be the perfect guy for this team right now," a high-ranking executive said. Maybe phone calls to Bonds or Alomar might be helpful. Presumably, the Astros will have mental skills coaches ready on speed dial to talk, whenever.
The Astros have a lot of excellent players, and it's possible they could rally around each other and drive their way into the postseason, pushed by the collective belief that this is the best way they can reacquire some high ground of legitimacy.
But it's going to be a hard season -- a really hard season -- and nothing they say now will change that.
* Correa is an exceptionally bright individual. But despite that and his instinct to fight on behalf of friends and teammates, he missed the reality that you cannot parse cheating. In his interview with MLB Network, Correa detailed key Houston rallies on its championship run of 2017, noting when there was a runner at second base, prompting opponents to give multiple signs -- and, Correa implied, nullifying Houston's ability to do its trash-can sign stealing.
What he ignored, however, is how dominoes tumble in a baseball game, with one moment building up to another. If the Astros illicitly stole signs in the early innings and added to the pitch count of the opposing starter, that would change the context for competition later in the game, taking the pitchers to a different level of effectiveness, changing the decisions for the opposing manager.
In the fifth inning of Game 5 of the World Series, the Astros trailed the Dodgers 7-4, and Clayton Kershaw retired the first two batters. But then George Springer drew a walk and Alex Bregman came back from a 1-2 count to draw another walk. Kershaw was replaced by Kenta Maeda, and Altuve blasted a tying three-run homer.
There is deep suspicion within the Dodgers organization that Bregman was able to lay off pitches in that critical at-bat in part because he knew what was coming. We'll never know for sure whether that was true, but the Astros have lost the benefit of the doubt because of the thousands of pitches when they did use their sign-stealing system for a competitive advantage. If you deal from the bottom of the deck on five hands, you can't then expect anyone to believe you when you say you played the sixth hand straight-up.
Correa tried to help Altuve by backing him as the 2017 AL MVP, but again, Altuve's achievements really cannot be separated from the benefits of cheating regardless of whether he used the trash-can system. He almost certainly came to the plate more often with the pitcher backed into a corner because teammates had cheated, getting runners on base or building an opponent's pitch count.
And according to the information researched by Astros fan Tony Adams and posted on the website SignStealingScandal.com, Altuve did hear some bangs during his at-bats, although not nearly as many as other teammates -- a couple of dozen in the 58 games that Adams logged. Correa can't say that Altuve didn't participate when it's apparent that he did, albeit to a lesser degree. Either you participated or you didn't. You can't be a little bit pregnant.
Former Astro Tony Kemp said the other day that he declined to participate in the sign stealing, and he is supported by Adams' data, which showed no bangs for Kemp.
In Correa's effort to clear Altuve, he underscored the fact that other teammates participated, and more often. It was just the latest in a long line of mistakes the Astros have made in the way they've handled this, so many that you could build a Top 10 list.
No. 10. At the annual New York baseball awards banquet, Justin Verlander referenced the sign-stealing scandal with a joke that fell flat with peers in the room -- especially former Yankees pitcher CC Sabathia, who was sitting a few feet away.
No. 9. In an interview with MLB Network, AJ Hinch deflected the question of whether the cheating scandal affected the legacy of the Astros, saying that everybody will have to make up their own mind about that question. Officials and players with other teams thought it was important for Hinch to acknowledge that, yes, of course it affected the perception of that team and that World Series.
No. 8. When Hinch was asked whether the '19 Astros used a buzzer system, he gave a lawyerly answer that only fueled the speculation.
No. 7. Five days later, Hinch issued a statement clarifying his previous answer. Since his departure as the Houston manager, the only access he has given to the media has been under Major League Baseball's umbrella.
No. 6. In Bregman's first contact with reporters since the sign-stealing report and the firing of Hinch, he repeatedly referred to the findings of the commissioner's investigation without offering remorse, a reaction that angered a lot of his peers.
No. 5. After Sports Illustrated published a story that Astros executive Brandon Taubman screamed at a group of reporters in the Houston clubhouse, the Astros initially denied the story in a scathing statement, and days later, after Taubman was fired, the organization was forced to retract the statement.
No. 4. At the team's first news conference of spring training, Bregman and Altuve spoke at the lectern for less than 90 seconds -- a decision that overshadowed the more forthcoming responses from both players later in the day.
No. 3. On the day Jim Crane fired GM Jeff Luhnow and Hinch, he insisted that the legacy of the Astros' 2017 championship was not tainted by the sign-stealing scandal. "Absolutely not," he said.
No. 2. A month later, Crane doubled down on his perspective, saying the team's cheating had no impact on what happened on the field ...
No. 1. And a minute later, Crane denied saying what he had just said about the impact of the sign stealing.
Elsewhere around the major leagues
• Rhys Hoskins, whose 2020 performance could be pivotal for the Phillies, has made changes to his swing, lowering his hands to the degree that he looks a little like the Dodgers' Justin Turner. Hoskins had a strong first half in 2019, generating a .931 OPS, but fell off after the All-Star break to .679. ... Add Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez to the best-shape-of-his-life club: He appears to be in excellent condition at the outset of New York's camp, and with the team's changes to its medical and training staffs, Aaron Boone said the other day that there is hope and expectation that the team will be better at keeping Sanchez on the field in 2020. ... The selection of Mickey Moniak with the No. 1 pick in the 2016 draft hasn't paid off for the Phillies at the big league level, with Moniak advancing no higher than Double-A so far. But staffers do see progress in Moniak this spring, noting his improved physicality and strength. He's still just 21 years old.
• A former Dodger predicted that Mookie Betts will stay with the team, whether re-signing before he reaches free agency or after. "He'll love that group of players," the ex-Dodger said. "They are workers, and he'll fit right in there."
Some more industry opinions on the Betts trade:
NL evaluator: "I think David Price is a guy who will benefit from the change of scenery. The whole thing was generally a perfect storm type of deal, with the Dodgers being able to surrender prospect value and take on money, their willingness to include Alex Verdugo, and the position that the Dodgers are in now and the fact that Mookie gives them what they need now. ... Brusdar Graterol has a chance to solidify the back end of the Dodgers' bullpen."
Longtime evaluator: "First, if the Red Sox attempted to re-sign Betts and they know they cannot, this is a small-market mindset of get what you can for future impact versus letting the player walk and getting only a pick.
"Second, if the Red Sox believe they can re-sign Betts but the marching orders from ownership are to get below the tax threshold this year, and they don't really think they can compete, then it's a really smart move if they re-sign him. Of course, sending him to L.A. may make re-signing him that much tougher."
Another evaluator: "Emotionally, the return feels light, but intellectually, given the factors limiting the market, I thought Boston did pretty well. If Graterol is only a reliever, I understand Boston's hesitance to have him to be a major portion of the deal. Jeter Downs and Connor Wong are interesting players and arguably more valuable than a potential back-end reliever. Obviously, Minnesota was working to sell as high on Graterol as they could."
Another front-office official compared Minnesota's trade of Graterol to Washington's swap of Alex Meyer to the Twins for Denard Span in the fall of 2012. "The Twins recognized that they had a pitcher of value, but obviously had some doubt about what his production would be [in the big leagues]," the official said.