It was the one trade everyone had predicted all offseason and it finally happened on Monday: The Pittsburgh Pirates traded outfielder Starling Marte to the Arizona Diamondbacks for two prospects. The Diamondbacks needed an outfielder, and with the Pirates stuck in the mire of Nowhere Land, it was up to them to trade a 31-year-old outfielder while he still had two years of team contractual control remaining.
What are the Diamondbacks getting? Other than a subpar 2017, when Marte was suspended 80 games for a positive performance-enhancing drug test, he has been a consistent performer at the plate, with an OPS+ ranging between 113 and 120 every other season since 2015. He did set career highs in 2019 in home runs (23) and slugging percentage (.503) thanks to the lively baseball.
Marte is a two-time Gold Glover, with those awards coming in 2015 and 2016 when he primarily played left field. He played center field the past two seasons, and he posted the worst defensive metrics of his career in 2019 with minus-9 defensive runs saved. The Statcast numbers, however, are a little more kind to his glove work, crediting him with two outs above average and a high jump rating. Given his speed remains near elite, Marte reasonably projects as at least an average defender in center field, sandwiched between David Peralta and Kole Calhoun.
That's a solid defensive outfield, but more importantly it's one that allows the team to move 2019 breakout star Ketel Marte back to second base on a regular basis, after he shuffled between second and center in 2019 while hitting .329/.389/.592 with 32 home runs, finishing fourth in the MVP voting. Even building in some regression from Ketel Marte, this looks like a playoff-caliber lineup:
CF Starling Marte
2B Ketel Marte
LF David Peralta
3B Eduardo Escobar
1B Christian Walker
RF Kole Calhoun
SS Nick Ahmed
C Carson Kelly
The bench includes Stephen Vogt, speedster Tim Locastro, Ildemaro Vargas and Jake Lamb. If Lamb can bounce back from two years of injuries, that would greatly improve the lineup's flexibility, as Lamb could fill in at third, with Escobar sliding over to second and Ketel Marte to the outfield. The Diamondbacks were sixth in the National League in runs scored in 2019 and that was with some subpar production in the outfield (Adam Jones and Jarrod Dyson ate up nearly 1,000 plate appearances with well below-average numbers at the plate) and from the bench. If the bottom of the lineup and bench guys can avoid being zeros, this could be a top-five offense.
Starling Marte, however, is not the club's biggest offseason acquisition. That title goes to Madison Bumgarner, recipient of a five-year, $85 million contract. I view Bumgarner as one of the pivotal players of the 2020 season. The left-hander made 34 starts and threw 207⅔ innings for the Giants -- the Diamondbacks would love to see those numbers again -- but he also posted a career-worst 3.90 ERA and allowed 30 home runs, another career worst. Bumgarner's strikeout-to-walk ratio remained strong, but he ranked poorly in advanced metrics such as exit velocity allowed and hard-hit rate. Perhaps most problematic, he allowed a 5.29 ERA away from the pitcher-friendly confines of San Francisco (in 2018, he had a 4.97 ERA on the road).
With that in mind, Bumgarner has boom-or-bust potential. I wouldn't want to be the one who bets against Bumgarner, however, so even if he repeats his 2019 numbers, the rotation could be pretty good:
Madison Bumgarner
Robbie Ray
Zac Gallen
Luke Weaver
Merrill Kelly
Mike Leake
Alex Young
Gallen is listed sixth on the depth chart on the Diamondbacks' website, but I love his potential after a 2.81 ERA in 15 starts as a rookie between the Marlins and Diamondbacks -- with his 96 K's in 80 innings. I think the deal for Jazz Chisholm will eventually go down as a steal for Arizona. Considering the Diamondbacks have seven solid options, there is still the possibility they trade Ray, who is in his final season before free agency. I'd keep him -- not only can you never have too much pitching depth, but Ray's ceiling remains tantalizing, as we saw in 2017 when he went 15-5 with a 2.89 ERA.
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Coming off an 85-win season, I like where the Diamondbacks sit right now. The defense, led by Gold Glover Ahmed, ranked second in the majors in DRS last year and projects at average or better at all positions (Lamb is the one weak defender if he ends up playing a lot). Torey Lovullo is a bright manager who got a lot out of last year's team when nobody expected anything from it after losing Paul Goldschmidt, Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock. The key players other than Gallen are all in their primes -- and Gallen is already viewed as a polished pitcher. It's not a young team itching to improve -- it's a team that should be ready to make a run at the playoffs.
Of course, the big, bad Dodgers stand in their way, and even with a quiet offseason the Dodgers will and should remain heavy favorites in the NL West. But don't be surprised if we see a scenario develop like in 2018, when the Dodgers needed Game 163 to beat the Rockies for the division title. Maybe the Diamondbacks will end the Dodgers' seven-year grip on the top slot in the West.