The act of ranking baseball's right fielders is something that should be feared, like mistakenly sending a personal email to your entire office. If you pick Aaron Judge over Mookie Betts, you'll be persona non grata with Red Sox Nation. A high placement for Ronald Acuna Jr. over some of the more accomplished stars at the position promises to obliterate your Twitter feed.
"With those guys, you're talking about players who could all wind up in the Hall of Fame," one National League evaluator said.
He's right. Paul Hembekides, researcher extraordinaire, notes that according to Baseball Gauge, all five are very much in play to make a speech in Cooperstown, based on its projection methodology
Betts' current chances to gain Hall induction are at 90%, while Yelich is at 86%, Judge 36%, Acuna 29% and Harper 16% -- and as they reach milestones, those numbers will climb.
Harper is closing in on his 250th career homer, and he's just 27 years old. Betts, also 27, is about to climb over 1,000 hits and 150 homers. Acuna needs 33 homers to hit 100, and he's 22.
So sure, a couple of decades from now, the guys at the top of the list that follows will probably share cocktails and stories on the back deck of the Otesaga.
That all said: As exceptional as the elite right fielders are, I was surprised by how the evaluator feedback was relatively consistent in how the rankings of some of the game's very best players should fall.
The top 10 right fielders in MLB:
1. Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
Over the past four years, Betts has more than doubled all but one other big league outfielder in defensive runs saved.
Betts: 98
Lorenzo Cain: 56
Brett Gardner: 47
Jason Heyward: 45
Ender Inciarte: 36
The conversation around Betts last year was that he was in a bit of an offensive mud bog, but that's only because of the incredibly high standard he set for himself with his MVP performance in 2018. In the end, Betts scored 135 runs in '19, had a .524 slugging percentage and generated 6.6 WAR, ninth best in the big leagues. Betts' free agency after this season will be fascinating.
2. Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
Given Bellinger's late slump, Yelich probably would've become the first National League player to win back-to-back National League MVP awards since Albert Pujols if he hadn't gotten hurt and missed the final couple of weeks of the season. Yelich led the NL in every part of the slash line -- a .329 batting average, .429 on-base percentage and a staggering .671 slugging percentage.
Out of this very special group of right fielders, Yelich might be the best pure hitter, combining big power with a knack for contact and plate discipline, and as he continues to gather more experience, all of it is likely to be honed.
3. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
When our friend Tim Kurkjian discusses challenging choices like this -- the ranking of the right fielders -- the most difficult question is not about who is No. 1 but about who is No. 4 or 5. The idea of putting Judge this low on any list seems a little insane because of how well-rounded a player he is and the relentlessness of his offense. And as Hembekides said, while there might be questions about how the changing aerodynamics of the baseball will affect one player or another, there is no doubt about Judge. Whether it's baseballs with high laces or low, whether it's sock balls or whiffle balls, the largest position player in baseball history is going to hit with more power than anybody else.
His rate of hard-hit balls was the highest in the majors last season among players with at least 250 plate appearances, at 53.8%. His home run-fly ball ratio? Third best, behind the Twins' Miguel Sano and the Rangers' Joey Gallo.
Judge is an excellent defender and an underrated baserunner, and Yankees manager Aaron Boone regards him as a clubhouse leader, generating a lot of great peer pressure through his attention to detail and the way he takes his at-bats. So what's not to like? Well, he's probably third on this list, and not higher, because he's missed 110 games the past two seasons.
4. Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves
Of all the guys on this list, he might be the best bet to have the best overall career, because like Juan Soto and Trout -- who were No. 1 in the rankings of left fielders and center fielders, respectively -- he's been so good at such a young age. Last season, he finished fifth in the NL MVP voting, after leading the league in runs (127) and stolen bases (37). He mashed 41 homers, 22 doubles and 175 hits, and unlike some other young talents, he's already demonstrated plate discipline -- he had 76 walks, underneath those 188 strikeouts. A move out of center field, where he sometimes struggled, should help.
5. Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
His first season in Philadelphia was solid -- a .372 on-base percentage, 35 homers, 114 RBIs. Given a full season, Harper probably would have reached his 250th career homer, his 800th career run, his 100th career steal. With his future locked in, Harper's defense improved significantly last season, his defensive runs saved climbing from minus-16 in Washington in 2018 to plus-9 for the Phillies last season.
6. Austin Meadows, Tampa Bay Rays
He fully blossomed as a big leaguer last season, making the All-Star team and picking up some top-10 MVP votes for a year in which he had a .922 OPS. There seems to be a lot of growth on the horizon, based on his broad range of performance against different types of pitchers, and pitches. He hit right-handers, he hit left-handers and he was consistent throughout 2019. Consider his first-half/second-half slash lines:
Before the All-Star break: .289/.364/.502
After the All-Star break: .292/.364/.619
The Rays' outfield trio of Meadows, Kevin Kiermaier and Hunter Renfroe will be among baseball's best.
7. Jorge Soler, Kansas City Royals
In a year in which the home run numbers exploded, he had more than anybody else in the American League, with 48, reaching the potential the Royals saw in him when they acquired him for Wade Davis a few years ago. He led the league in strikeouts as well, but it's evident he's gotten better at doing damage when given the opportunity -- his rate of contact on pitches in the strike zone lurched upward from 74% in 2017 to 83.7% last season, the sort of improvement rarely seen.
8. Michael Conforto, New York Mets
After some inconsistency and injury earlier in his career, he has developed into a consistent, predictable source of production, with back-to-back seasons over 120 in adjusted OPS+. He was 25th in the big leagues last season in hitting the ball to the opposite field, the sort of thing that can help inoculate a hitter from a deep slump.
9. Max Kepler, Minnesota Twins
The Twins slugger pounded 36 homers and posted a .336 on-base percentage. His career fWAR before last season was 5.4, and Kepler generated 4.4 in 2019, mostly with his power and his defense. Kepler has learned to lift the ball, as his ground ball-fly ball ratio suggests.
2016: 1.29
2017: 1.08
2018: 0.82
2019: 0.78
And he's hitting the ball harder than ever. His hard-hit rates:
2016: 33.0%
2017: 32.9%
2018: 37.1%
2019: 42.4%
10. Nicholas Castellanos, Cincinnati Reds
The Cubs wanted an offensive jolt when they acquired Castellanos from the Tigers last year, and he exceeded their expectations, hitting .321 with an OPS of 1.002. One of his temporary teammates said privately that he found Castellanos to be very focused, locked in, as he went through one of his first opportunities to reach the playoffs.
Best of the rest
Jason Heyward, Chicago Cubs: He was more effective at the plate last year, hitting for more power, but a lot of his value continues to be rooted in his high-end defense.
Kole Calhoun, Arizona Diamondbacks: The savvy Diamondbacks get him on a two-year, $16 million deal.
Adam Eaton, Washington Nationals: He scored 103 runs last season, and his name will be forever etched in the history of the World Series -- he batted .320, with a couple of home runs, four walks and just two strikeouts.