Under normal circumstances, every organization would have months of statistics and data through which to evaluate their prospects at summer's end. Club officials would have a sense of how much the 19-year-old in Class A has refined a needed changeup, how the Double-A shortstop has cleaned up his erratic throwing and whether the promising young hitter has improved his plate discipline.
Evaluation of the youngest players might become the greatest challenge in the industry if there are limited minor league games or no games whatsoever. Last month's agreement about service time between Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association means that the conveyor belt will keep moving forward, with Mookie Betts, J.T. Realmuto and others advancing into free agency, with some of their peers taking another step up the arbitration ladder -- creating the natural talent vacuum behind them.
Who will be ready to move into the big leagues or to the top of the minor league system will be more difficult to assess. The old saying goes that spring training results are meaningless, but that might not necessarily apply in the spring of 2021, when each team might have to bear down and weigh player progression with greater intensity than ever.
That challenge might well apply to all organizations. But each team also will face a context unique to itself next winter, following what will inevitably be the strangest of seasons. With so much uncertainty about what will happen this summer and the shape of the financial landscape next winter, these are the major questions looming for each team as they move past 2020.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Beyond rebuilding the team's farm system, Mike Hazen also has revamped the payroll situation -- and Arizona will have a bunch of players moving into free agency this winter, including Yasmany Tomas, Mike Leake, Starling Marte, Robbie Ray and Jake Lamb. Arizona doesn't have the resources that the Giants do, but the Diamondbacks are similarly poised to adjust to the next norm.
Atlanta Braves: The long-term decision about Freddie Freeman is quickly moving to the front burner for Atlanta because the eight-year deal he signed in 2014 is set to expire after the 2021 season. (He'll be 31 next spring.) The Braves will have a lot of money coming off the books after this season because Mark Melancon is in the last year of his deal and Marcell Ozuna and Cole Hamels signed one-year deals for 2020.
Baltimore Orioles: For a franchise many years removed from competing for the American League East title, the greatest cost for the organization is the innings and plate appearances of development. Chris Davis, the only expensive piece on their roster, is under contract for 2021 and 2022.
Boston Red Sox: Ron Roenicke's managerial contract runs through the end of 2020, and so Boston will need to decide whether to retain Roenicke in that role moving forward or turn elsewhere (and there are folks with other teams who are convinced the Red Sox will bring back Alex Cora). The team's most pressing financial questions were addressed with the trade of Mookie Betts and David Price, so with relatively few long-term obligations, Boston could be in position to raid what will likely be a depressed free-agent market next winter.
Chicago Cubs: The X factor for all future moves might be the state of the team's investments around Wrigley Field, which haven't paid off as expected yet because of the current circumstances. That likely will have a lot of bearing on the front office's decision-making. The Cubs' timetable for some really difficult choices might be accelerated, as Kris Bryant and Javier Baez will be free agents after the 2021 season, and the team must decide whether to pick up the 2021 option for first baseman Anthony Rizzo. And there is this: Next season, Theo Epstein will be in the final year of his deal as head of baseball operations.
Chicago White Sox: No team is probably more antsy to move forward than the group on the South Side. The White Sox have a bunch of young and talented players, many of them locked into long-term deals. Closer Alex Colome and catcher James McCann will be eligible for free agency in the fall.
Cincinnati Reds: Trevor Bauer is among the very few prospective free agents, so it's very possible the Reds of 2021 will remain mostly intact after 2020 -- assuming that the front office doesn't have to make some hard choices to account for the economic downturn.
Cleveland Indians: The deferred decision about what to do with All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor will be at the top of the to-do list for Cleveland. And given the financial hit that the Indians will take with baseball shut down, other clubs believe it's a near certainty Lindor will be moved; it will be even more important for the Indians to maximize the asset return for the switch-hitter. The contract of first baseman Carlos Santana is set to expire this winter, unless the Indians pick up his 2021 option; and given the huge pool of free agents who will be available in the upcoming offseason, that seems unlikely. Santana loves playing in Cleveland, and it could be that the two sides work out new terms for 2021. The Indians hold a $10 million option on closer Brad Hand, so the three-time All-Star could be a candidate for trade as Cleveland manages its payroll.
Colorado Rockies: With baseball's revenue river all but down to a trickle, the choices involving Nolan Arenado grow more distinct. Five months ago, it appeared Arenado, unhappy with the direction of the Rockies, might push his way into a trade. Rival executives felt in February that Colorado might have difficulty finding an acceptable deal. But now, Arenado's contract appears even more significant: He is owed $209 million for the 2021 to 2027 seasons. Arenado could opt out of his deal at the end of the 2021 season, but he'll be 30 years old, and it's unclear whether Arenado would come close to replicating the big money he is already set to make.
Detroit Tigers: The only multiyear obligation left on the Detroit books after this year will be Miguel Cabrera, who is owed $94 million for 2021 to 2023.
Houston Astros: A front-burner issue for Houston and new general manager James Click is the status of George Springer, who will be eligible for free agency in the fall. As with Betts, the expectations for Springer in the open market might come down -- and whether owner Jim Crane invests in Springer might be a first indication of whether the Astros will soon move into a rebuilding phase.
Kansas City Royals: Kansas City might face the same kind of choice as the Padres do. The Royals could use whatever 2020 innings they play to foster the development of their best young pitchers, which is the most critical factor for K.C. to compete as it moves into 2021.
Los Angeles Angels: The first big decision in the year ahead is about general manager Billy Eppler, who is in the last season of his contract. Regardless of whether Eppler is the GM, the focus for the team moving forward will continue to be on starting pitching, but also shortstop, as Andrelton Simmons' deal expires in the fall. The 2021 season is the last in Albert Pujols' 10-year deal, while Justin Upton is signed through 2022.
Los Angeles Dodgers: There will be pressure on L.A. to lock up Mookie Betts to a long-term deal, but Betts will be the first major test of how baseball's post-coronavirus economic conditions play out. There had been a lot of speculation about whether Betts might become the second player to get a $400 million contract, but that might be out of the question in the game's new financial reality. Andrew Friedman's success in baseball operations has been rooted in the fact that he almost never pays sticker price for anything, while Betts will be under some inherent union pressure to take the best dollar offer he gets.
Miami Marlins: They invested in a lot of veterans to augment the team's improvement for this year, from Jonathan Villar to Jesus Aguilar to Brandon Kintzler, and the Marlins will have to decide whether to spend in the same way for 2021. Miami has a lot of flexibility: The Marlins have less than $15 million in guaranteed salary obligations after this season.
Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich locked in his long-term deal under baseball's pre-coronavirus economy, a well-timed transaction for the MVP. The Brewers flirted last fall with the idea of trading Josh Hader to take advantage of his market value, and with Hader headed into his second round of arbitration next winter, Milwaukee is bound to dig more deeply into the possibility of swapping the veteran.
Minnesota Twins: Minnesota is in win-now mode for 2020, with many veterans working under short-term deals, and this fall, Jake Odorizzi, Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez, Homer Bailey, Tyler Clippard and Alex Avila will be eligible for free agency. A lot of the roster might turn over for 2021.
New York Mets: They will need to reconstruct three-fifths of their starting rotation for next year, as three starting pitchers -- Michael Wacha, Rick Porcello and Marcus Stroman -- will become eligible for free agency next winter. And Noah Syndergaard likely will miss the first part of next season (which raises questions about whether the Mets will retain him).
New York Yankees: DJ LeMahieu loves playing for the Yankees, but he has been luckless so far in his free agency. In the winter of 2018-19, the industry didn't equitably pay him for his skill set when he got a two-year, $24 million deal from the Yankees; and now he might go into the market when the money ratchets downward. But the Yankees' front office and staff love him, and he'll be a priority this winter, along with the rotation. James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ will all be eligible for free agency this winter, meaning that Brian Cashman will aim for starting pitching depth.
Oakland Athletics: Marcus Semien, the third-place finisher in the AL MVP voting last fall, is headed into free agency this fall; and this winter, Matt Chapman and Matt Olson, the team's star corner infielders, will go into salary arbitration for the first time. The team's decadeslong efforts to get a new ballpark might have to go dormant again.
Philadelphia Phillies: When Philadelphia traded for catcher J.T. Realmuto, rival executives assumed that Realmuto would be locked up to a long-term deal. But he remains eligible for free agency in the fall, along with Jake Arrieta.
Pittsburgh Pirates: The fact that the Pirates froze 401(k) benefits of employees reflects the ownership's current mindset about money. Whenever baseball returns, the Pirates will continue rebuilding and managing payroll, and an obvious issue will be the status of first baseman Josh Bell. The slugger -- and Scott Boras client -- is coming off the best season of his career and will be going through salary arbitration a second time.
St. Louis Cardinals: Yadier Molina told ESPN's Marly Rivera that he wants to play beyond 2020, and this elevates him into the club's most pressing issues for the upcoming months. Jack Flaherty, one of MLB's best pitchers, will see a massive spike in his salary as he goes through arbitration for the first time this winter.
San Diego Padres: San Diego's next-best chance to become a factor in the National League West race will be through the development of its young pitching, so it will be intriguing to see how the Padres handle their arms in what might be a shortened season. Typically, pitchers face innings limits early in their careers, but it might behoove the Padres to throw the best of their prospects (such as MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patino, Adrian Morejon and Ryan Weathers) into the rotation to ensure that they get a chance to develop this year -- and to better tee up the franchise for 2021.
San Francisco Giants: They are nearing the end of their long-standing financial obligations. This is the last year in Jeff Samardzija's deal, and the contracts of Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford and Johnny Cueto will likely end after 2021. The team's player development is on hold at the moment, but the ownership's path is an amazing success story, and with relatively little franchise debt, the Giants might be in a better position than any club to quickly adapt to whatever comes next in MLB.
Seattle Mariners: If Seattle, in the midst of rebuilding, cannot move third baseman Kyle Seager this summer, the Mariners will presumably find a deal next winter (while likely eating some cost). Seager has one year remaining on his contract, for $18.5 million in 2021.
Tampa Bay Rays: When the final accounting is done, no MLB team might have lost more to the pandemic than Tampa Bay. The Rays' efforts to get a new ballpark presumably have been undercut amid larger taxpayer concerns, and the 2020 team looked spectacular on paper. After this year, right-hander Charlie Morton might retire. And with about a dozen players eligible for arbitration, the Rays will have to go through another round of payroll management.
Texas Rangers: Like the Cubs, the greatest impact on the team's finances might be more on the lack of return on investment with their new ballpark properties than in payroll. Historically, clubs have banked big time in the first years of a park opening, but for the Rangers, that is now much more complicated. GM Jon Daniels presumably will weigh the trade value of the team's veteran starting pitchers whenever baseball returns; Mike Minor, Kyle Gibson and Corey Kluber are free agents after this season (though Texas holds a 2021 option on Kluber), and Lance Lynn could reach the open market in the fall of 2021.
Toronto Blue Jays: The greatest need going into next year will be for their core of young players to somehow continue to make progress without the full complement of games. As it turns out, Nate Pearson's innings -- which probably would've been limited to about 130 under normal circumstances -- will be curtailed through the shutdown.
Washington Nationals: Max Scherzer has been one of the best free-agent signings in baseball history, and 2021 will be the last year of his contract with Washington. Of more immediate concern is the status of general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez, who are under contract through 2020 and could move on after this year, taking their 2019 championship rings with them. The Nationals' ownership has demonstrated a reluctance to pay staffers, a tendency that might be exacerbated under baseball's money squeeze.
Baseball Tonight Podcast
On the podcast, in what was Contributors Week ...
Friday: Janet Marie Smith, who helped to change the fan experience with her work on Oriole Park at Camden Yards, the facility that inspired similar MLB parks. She also details the work that has been done on Dodger Stadium.
Thursday: Bill James, who played a pivotal role in the use of analytics in baseball, talks about the early industry responses to his work and where we are in the evaluation of defense.
Wednesday: David Mellor, the keeper of the grounds at Fenway Park, explains how fish got on the infield at the old place and shares some of the best and toughest moments in his work.
Tuesday: Umpire Joe West, who is closing in on an all-time record in baseball, has a lot of stories -- including that time he was invited to join a bunch of gun-toting players.
Monday: Bob Kendrick, the president of the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum, picks his all-time best player (it's not Willie Mays, Babe Ruth or Henry Aaron) and talks about the reaction of current players such as Bryce Harper to the museum's artifacts.