A small army of third basemen was on the move last winter. Anthony Rendon got the biggest deal ever doled out by Arte Moreno and signed with the Angels. Josh Donaldson signed with the Twins for $92 million. The Cubs made it known they were open to dealing Kris Bryant for the right return.
In the midst of all that, the name of Nolan Arenado popped into the market, less than a year after he and the Rockies agreed to an eight-year, $260 million contract, with speculation mounting that a team like the Dodgers might explore the idea of dealing for him. But that was before the pandemic, and before the extraordinary shift in the financial landscape that leaves Arenado a distinct choice:
1. He could opt out of his deal after the 2021 season, but probably would have to accept far less in his next contract.
2. Stick with his current deal and make peace with the idea of staying with the Rockies (unless the Rockies are so financially strapped that they are compelled to move him).
The safe bet now is that Arenado will be with the Rockies for the foreseeable future. He's among the top 10 third basemen, of course.
1. Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
Bregman's rankings among his third-base peers in 2019:
fWAR (8.5): 1st, by far
wRC+ (168): 1st, by far
Runs (122): 2nd
Swing-and-miss percentage (4.6): 2nd
After Mike Trout got hurt, Bregman nearly caught him for American League MVP. Bregman is just getting started: He'll play the upcoming season at age 26.
2. Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels
It would be intriguing to see a poll of all pitchers picking the toughest hitter in baseball; Rendon would have to have a shot to be in the top spot. Almost every hitter has some spot of weakness, whether it is one particular area of the strike zone or a troublesome pitch. But the numbers suggest there really is no kryptonite against Rendon: He did more damage against fastballs than any hitter in the majors last season, but as you'll see here, he did damage against all types of pitches.
Paul Hembekides offered the stat that might best encapsulate Rendon's excellence: Last year, Rendon had a better OPS in two-strike counts (.804) -- when hitters are supposedly backed into a corner, on the defensive -- than Manny Machado did overall (.796). Assuming Joe Maddon writes in Trout and Rendon somewhere in the first three spots of the lineup, that duo might turn out to be one of the most difficult in recent memory for pitchers to navigate around.
3. Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies
Over the past five seasons, Arenado has averaged 181 hits, 104 runs and 40 homers. Here's his wRC+ over the past five years:
2015: 121
2016: 126
2017: 130
2018: 132
2019: 128
So the consistency is there. Any team interested in dealing for him will be drawn to the passion with which he plays. But even with his aggressive style, he stays on the field: Arenado has played in at least 155 games in each of the past five seasons.
He is known for asking a lot of questions, of constantly looking for ways to get better. Sunday Night Baseball colleague Alex Rodriguez told a great story last year about Arenado asking him about some element of hitting, and Alex basically responded, "Nolan, you're doing pretty well already."
4. Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics
Three amazing facts from baseball history:
A. Stan Musial generated exactly half of his 3,630 hits at home and the other half on the road.
B. Don Larsen and David Wells both pitched perfect games for the Yankees, and both attended Point Loma High School in San Diego.
C. Matt Chapman was the understudy to Nolan Arenado at El Toro High School in Lake Forest, California.
So arguably two of the best defensive players at one of the most difficult positions in the sport learned the fundamentals on the same infield. Chapman has posted the best defensive metrics at the position over the past three seasons.
5. Josh Donaldson, Minnesota Twins
He missed 159 games in 2017 and 2018 with calf injuries, so the Braves' investment in him was something of a gamble, which paid off. Donaldson hit 37 homers, scored 96 runs and had a .900 OPS last season, and the metrics suggest his defensive play was some of the best in the National League. The Twins already had a strong lineup last season, and with the addition of Donaldson to Nelson Cruz, et al., theirs could be the best in baseball.
6. Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs
Bryant hit for more power last season, with 31 homers, and he drew enough walks to post a .382 on-base percentage, 16th best in the majors. There is concern among evaluators about what they see as regression in his defense, but the primary reason the Cubs apparently have not been overwhelmed in any trade talks for the former MVP is money, with Bryant's salary rocketing upward through arbitration.
7. Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox
A number of evaluators believe Devers has some of the best hands of any hitter in baseball -- in the way he is able to respond to pitches -- and this goes a long way to offsetting the problems he has on defense. In his age-22 season last summer, he hit .311. And there probably will be a time when he'll join the long line of Red Sox hitters with batting titles. He had 24 errors in 2018 and 22 last year.
8. Eugenio Suarez, Cincinnati Reds
Only Pete Alonso hit more homers than Suarez last season. And if you're thinking that, well, sure, Suarez does a lot of damage in that cozy hitters' park in Cincinnati, it should be said that 25 of his 49 homers came on the road.
9. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians
He inexplicably struggled for the first half of last season; he was hitting .214 on July 3. For the next 44 games, however, Ramirez reverted to the form that put him in the MVP conversation in 2018 by hitting .325 with a 1.077 OPS -- before a hand injury ended his season.
10. Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers
When there is a runner at third base, Turner continues to be one of the hitters that opposing pitchers and managers would least like to see stepping into the batter's box. He led all third basemen in rate of hard-hit balls.
Best of the rest
Yoan Moncada, Chicago White Sox: He was the toughest to leave out of the top 10, but he'll climb into that group next season. Moncada collected 34 doubles, five triples and 25 homers last season. You would assume he'll improve on his 4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio (154 strikeouts, 40 walks) as he gathers experience.
Eduardo Escobar, Arizona Diamondbacks: Escobar had a magnificent first season for the Diamondbacks, with 29 doubles, 10 triples and 35 homers. While RBIs bear no weight in how front offices evaluate players, they do mean something to players -- and last year, Escobar's 118 RBIs was tied for the fifth most in the majors.
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres: He is one of the biggest names in baseball, and he received a monster deal a year ago; but in his first year with the Padres, Machado ranked 16th in fWAR among third basemen, hitting .256. Perhaps to stoke his level of comfort, the Padres hired a slew of ex-Orioles who previously worked alongside Machado in coaches Bobby Dickerson and Wayne Kirby and former infielder Ryan Flaherty, who will oversee quality control for San Diego.
Paul Hembekides sent this along about Machado:
Since 2017:
Hitting in Camden Yards -- .315 BA, .987 OPS in 567 PA
Other parks -- .255 BA, .769 OPS in 1,493 PA
Gio Urshela, New York Yankees: Yankees general manager Brian Cashman is on record stating that even with Miguel Andujar returning to action this year, third base is Urshela's to lose, following his breakout in 2019. And quite simply, Urshela is a much better defender.