Before we get to the ranking of baseball's best shortstops, a story about an All-Star second baseman.
A few years ago, the Houston Astros' staff encouraged batting champion Jose Altuve to be more patient at the plate. The staffers assured Altuve they weren't asking him to hunt walks, but they believed if Altuve could refrain from swinging at some really bad pitches, he would put himself in better ball-strike counts, draw a few more walks and compel opponents to throw the ball over the plate. In this way, he'd give himself a better chance to do damage when he did swing.
If pitchers and catchers believe you'll hack at pitches outside the zone, the staffers noted, they'll keep working outside the zone. Altuve adjusted, and yep, he's doing more damage.
It's remarkable how many among an exceptional group of shortstops in this era could be helped by making the same adjustment that Altuve made -- and for some of them, it could be the difference between being really good and being the best.
Case in point: the Cubs' Javier Baez.
It's more than apparent that pitchers have reached a tipping point with him -- knowing that Baez loves to swing, they don't throw strikes. And Baez keeps swinging.
Of all National League hitters who qualified for the batting title in 2019, Baez swung at the second-highest percentage of pitches outside of the zone, at 44.1%. Jose Iglesias was first at 46.7%
This information is at the top of the mind for every pitcher, catcher and club analyst or pitching coach generating a scouting report and pitching plan. When opponents talk about Baez before games, what they say over and over throughout the season is: Don't throw him strikes. He'll likely swing anyway, and there's a good chance he'll swing and miss.
Baez had the highest rate of swing and miss in MLB at 18.4%. He compiled 156 strikeouts and only 28 walks.
Baez does so much great stuff with his defense, his power, his baserunning. But that urge to swing works against him and the Cubs too often, and when the front office examines the odd inconsistency of this team, Baez's all-or-nothing approach is a detriment on given days. His on-base percentage of .316 ranked 101st of 121 batters, and it's well beneath someone of his talent. Last year, Baez scored only 60 runs independent of his 29 homers. He's too good for that.
Corey Seager of the Dodgers has a similar issue. He swung early in the count and too often he'd put a pitch outside of the strike zone in play and make a quick out. Last season, he averaged 3.53 pitches per plate appearance, the eighth-lowest mark in the big leagues. Seager drew 44 walks with a .335 on-base percentage. Tim Anderson of the White Sox won the AL batting title, hitting .335 -- and he had more homers (18) than walks (15).
In the movie "Bull Durham," Crash Davis talks about what it takes to be an elite hitter. "Know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is?" he says. "It's 25 hits. Twenty-five hits in 500 at-bats is 50 points, OK? There's six months in a season, that's about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week -- just one -- a gork, you get a ground ball, you get a ground ball with eyes, you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week ... and you're in Yankee Stadium."
The same concept could be applied to plate discipline. You lay off just one or two bad pitches a game -- one bad hack not taken -- and as a byproduct, you take one walk a week that you haven't taken in the past ... and you'll be in hitter heaven, that place where pitchers believe they need to throw the ball in or at the edge of the zone to entice you to swing, and you see more fastballs you can drive.
That's Javier Baez's fastest route to the MVP, the best way for Tim Anderson's name to start appearing on MVP ballots, and probably the best chance for Corey Seager to play his whole career with the Dodgers.
Here's a ranking of the top 10 shortstops -- and so far, this was the toughest group to align.
1. Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians
Lindor probably was never fully healthy last season after hurting his ankle in the winter and was never fully able to do all the stuff he can do, and yet he scored 101 runs in 143 games, clubbed 74 extra-base hits, stole 22 bases and won a Gold Glove.
He's an elite hitter; he's a switch-hitter; his athleticism and extreme work ethic bodes well for the second half of his career; he's exceptional with the glove; and Lindor has a well-traveled reputation for being a first-rate person and clubhouse presence. For general managers and owners, he'll check every box.
2. Marcus Semien, Oakland Athletics
Mookie Betts will get most of the media attention among the impending free agents, but don't overlook Semien, who just keeps getting better and is coming off the best season of his career. Last year, Semien scored 123 runs, drove in 92 -- with the aid of 83 extra-base hits -- and finished third in the American League MVP voting.
His rate of hard-hit balls, according to FanGraphs:
2014: 24.5%
2015: 29.1%
2016: 28.5%
2017: 30.3%
2018: 32.5%
2019: 41.9%
A distinct trend line there, as there is with Semien's recent swing-and-miss rates:
2016: 10%
2017: 10.3%
2018: 8.3%
2019: 7.2%
3. Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies
You know about Story's power -- 35 home runs last year and 123 in the first 544 games of his career. You probably know about the gradual improvement in making contact, with his swing-and-miss rate dropping from 12.5% and 14.1% in his first two seasons to 11.4% and 11.9% in his last two seasons. And you know how steady he is on defense -- just one of his eight errors last season was the result of a mishandled ball.
But Story is also a high-impact baserunner, ranking 10th in the big leagues in the FanGraphs baserunning metric. Story scored 111 runs in 145 games, and with uncertainty developing around Nolan Arenado's future with the Rockies, it might be that Story will become the centerpiece of the franchise.
4. Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs
There are signs of Baez, 27, making adjustments at the plate. Last year, he became adept at taking fastballs over the outer half of the plate -- or just off the edge -- to the opposite field for damage. His rate of going to right field climbed from 19.9% in 2016 to 27.9% last season. Nobody is better in the way he uses his glove, and he, Mike Trout, Nolan Arenado and Fernando Tatis Jr. are in the conversation for most watchable position player in baseball, because you just never know what incredible thing he is going to do next.
5. Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox
Bogaerts finished last in some of the defensive metrics among MLB shortstops last year, but he has blossomed into one of the league's best offensive players. Last year, he reached base more than 250 times -- 190 hits and 76 walks, plus two hit by pitches -- and bashed 52 doubles and 33 homers. He seems to have absorbed the same lesson as Altuve, as his walks have almost doubled in the past four years, and he is doing major damage.
6. Carlos Correa, Houston Astros
Correa missed 53 games in 2017, 52 in 2018 and 87 last year, and with the Astros' shortstop now closing in on free agency -- he'll be eligible after the 2021 season -- it'll be important for him to post up consistently over the next couple of years, or injury issues will start to frame the conversation. In the 2019 postseason, he again showed that when he's on the field, he can have a significant impact. For argument's sake, if he played 150 games last year rather than 75, he might have been in the range of 40 homers and 120 RBIs. Correa is 25 and he is adapting as he learns -- his rate of hard-hit balls spiked to a career-high 44.9% last year.
7. Jorge Polanco, Minnesota Twins
This is where the shortstops ranking got really difficult. Polanco had an excellent 2019 season, batting .295 with 22 homers and 107 runs.
8. Paul DeJong, St. Louis Cardinals
DeJong is the outlier among the elite shortstops in that he wasn't a blue-chip first-round type of talent. Rather, he was the 131st player selected in 2015, in the fourth round. Yet he keeps producing. DeJong was sixth in WAR among shortstops last year (not including Alex Bregman, a third baseman who played a lot at short when Correa was out of the lineup). DeJong was sixth in homers among shortstops and fourth in defensive runs saved.
9. Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers
Seager led the NL with 44 doubles among his 64 extra-base hits last season. As with Correa, the season, though shortened, will go a long way toward building parameters around Seager's free agency, which follows the 2021 season.
10. Tim Anderson, Chicago White Sox
Anderson accomplished a lot last season, winning his first batting title, but keep in mind that he missed about a quarter of the season with a serious ankle injury. The White Sox's lineup will be improved around him with the addition of Yasmani Grandal and others, and in a good lineup, in a good hitter's park, Anderson could put up big numbers even in another short season.
Best of the rest
Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees: With Didi Gregorius off to Philadelphia, Torres takes over as the Yankees' shortstop, where he played 77 games in 2019. He showed some range but also a tendency to make mistakes -- he had 11 errors at short -- but it's important to remember that he hadn't yet turned 23. And it looks like he's on the verge of becoming a monster offensive player. Torres had 38 homers last year -- and should give thanks to the Orioles, who allowed 13 of them. He's not in the top 10 this year, but don't be surprised if he's near the top of the leaderboard next year.
Trea Turner, Washington Nationals: Turner suffered a broken finger when he was hit by a pitch in the first month of the season and came back quickly, and only he knows for sure how much it affected his performance. But Turner did some really good stuff anyway, scoring 96 runs with a .353 on-base percentage and helping his team to a championship.
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres: A revelation that caught the attention of rival evaluators is that the Padres at least thought about a move for Lindor, which obviously would have necessitated a move of Tatis Jr., probably to center field. He had a staggering adjusted OPS+ of 153 over 84 games last year, finishing third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, but his defensive play will be scrutinized this coming season, as other teams wonder where he'll play in the future.
Nick Ahmed, Arizona Diamondbacks: Ahmed led all major league shortstops in defensive runs saved last season with 18, and more than in any other year, he was a threat at the plate.
Dansby Swanson, Atlanta Braves: Swanson got off to a strong start in 2019 and had the best season of his career.
Andrelton Simmons, Los Angeles Angels: It seems weird to leave arguably the best defensive shortstop ever off a top-10 list, but this speaks to the current strength of the position, as well as Simmons' inconsistent offense. His adjusted OPS+ last season was 80, nearly the worst of his career.
Didi Gregorius, Philadelphia Phillies: It's a big year for Gregorius, after he bet on himself and took a one-year deal in Philadelphia to reestablish his value on the market. After missing the first couple of months of the season coming back from Tommy John surgery, Gregorius wasn't as sharp defensively as he had been in the past.