The starting pitching market in free agency has moved very quickly this offseason. The pace has likely been too fast for some teams.
And it isn't just Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg and Madison Bumgarner coming off the board. Teams that may have been hoping to wait out the market have seen Jake Odorizzi take the Twins' qualifying offer and middle- and lower-tier options like Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, Tanner Roark, Cole Hamels, Rick Porcello and Jordan Lyles get snapped up. Even Michael Wacha, Josh Lindblom and Kevin Gausman are gone. And this weekend Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dallas Keuchel came off the board too, so now pickings are even slimmer.
So teams looking through the remaining players for anything in the way of solid production shouldn't get their hopes up. However, for those seeking upside in a starting pitcher who should come at a discounted rate, here are the best options.
Walker is set to make around $5 million in arbitration next season, so the Diamondbacks non-tendered him, deciding it wasn't worth taking their chances on a pitcher who has thrown just 14 innings over the past two seasons. Walker was expected to come back in the middle of the 2019 season, but a shoulder injury delayed his return and meant he could pitch only a single inning on the last day of the season. He threw mostly fastballs in that outing, averaging 93 mph, a tick below where he was pre-injury, but he did manage a strikeout in a scoreless inning.
The clock ran out for Walker last season and with the Diamondbacks, but if he spends another offseason building up arm strength, he might get back to the above-average pitcher he was in 2017. He's still just 27, and while he's not a pitcher a team would simply give a rotation spot to, he deserves an opportunity to pitch his way into a role next spring. The American League Central features multiple teams that would be good fits, including the White Sox, Twins and Indians.
Another injured player non-tendered by his club, Nelson was a developing ace in 2017 before shoulder and elbow injuries finished his season and kept him out for all of 2018 and most of 2019. He came back as a reliever last season for the Brewers and struck out a quarter of the batters he faced. Unfortunately, those strikeouts came with a 16% walk rate, a few homers and a lot of runs. His velocity overall was a few notches down from his 2017 season, but his last three outings of the season offered some signs of hope.
The level of competition can be a bit misleading in September, so his six strikeouts against just one walk with no runs over his final four innings must be taken with a grain of salt. More encouraging than the results was Nelson's velocity; his fastball was up over 94 mph, and that is in line with his breakout season. The velocity came in short relief stints, but Nelson did show the ability to dial it back up to his pre-injury levels. As a ground ball pitcher, he would fit well in a hitters' park, so a reunion with Milwaukee isn't out of the question, but the White Sox, Phillies and Rockies would make sense as teams that might want to see if the last week of the season can carry over into spring.
After logging 200-plus above-average innings in 2012 and 2013, Bailey reverted to average over 23 starts in 2014, then suffered through four lost seasons, averaging fewer than 60 innings per season and producing replacement-level results. After Bailey was traded to the Dodgers and then released, the rebuilding Royals gave him a shot. In Kansas City, Bailey was solid and produced roughly average strikeout and walk numbers. After a trade to Oakland, Bailey was even better, reducing his walk rate to 5% and limiting homers by using Oakland's spacious home park to his advantage.
For the season, Bailey put up an above-average 4.11 FIP and 2.9 WAR, with his 4.57 ERA an average figure in these homer-happy times. The righty will turn 34 in May, and his injury history will prevent him from getting much money on the free-agent market despite putting up a better season than Pineda, Gibson, Hamels or Roark. Bailey's home/road splits are a bit troubling, with a bunch more home runs yielded on the road, so he should aim for a team with a pitchers' park. Going back to Oakland makes sense, as would providing rotation depth for the Rays or Cardinals. A non-contender like the Giants, Marlins or Pirates might be able to offer a more secure spot in the rotation.
The juiced ball might not have hurt any pitcher as much as it hurt Chacin. In 2017 and 2018, Chacin struck out 20% of the batters he faced and had a 9% walk rate, but he had above-average seasons in large part because he gave up less than a homer per nine innings. His walk and strikeout rates remained the same with Milwaukee and Boston last season, but his home run rate more than doubled. When Chacin was on, he used his command to switch up locations and speeds with his slider. Last season, he wasn't getting as many swing-and-misses on the pitch, and hitters crushed his fastball in the strike zone.
Chacin might need a change of scenery and approach to try to get back what he lost last season. Milwaukee is a tough place to avoid home runs, and he could opt to introduce one of his older pitches back into the repertoire to keep hitters off balance. He might fit best for a rebuilding team like the Royals, Giants, Tigers or Marlins, but maybe the Angels or A's could take a chance on him.
Like Walker and Nelson, Salazar has a considerable recent injury history, but he's also got a lengthier résumé as an above-average starter. In 2018, rehab failed for Salazar, and he underwent surgery on his right shoulder in July. He missed the rest of that season and the first half of the 2019 campaign. After a month of rehab, Salazar pitched four lackluster innings against Houston on Aug. 1. He then headed back to the injured list with a groin strain. He made a few more rehab appearances but didn't get into another MLB game.
Salazar's velocity was in the low-90s in his rehab starts but much lower in his only MLB appearance due to the groin strain. Salazar isn't a pitcher who requires a ton of velocity since his changeup is his primary pitch, but if the righty can fully recover from his groin problem, another full offseason of strengthening his arm could provide some promise of a comeback. He makes sense for many of the teams listed above, like the White Sox and A's, but better teams like the Red Sox and Cubs could be interested given that Salazar might not even get a major league guarantee.