The Padres and Rays lined up yet again on a trade Thursday night, with the Rays sending Tommy Pham, whom they acquired less than 18 months ago for three prospects, to the West Coast in a deal that nets them one of San Diego's top prospects. It's a heavy price for the Padres to pay to try to improve their odds of contending in 2020.
Pham will turn 32 in March, but because he debuted so late, he still has two seasons to go before he hits free agency. Since his breakout 2017 season, he's settled in as a solid regular with strong OBP skills, hitting .274/.368/.456 the past two seasons and finishing seventh in the American League in walks in 2019. With his above-average baserunning and slightly above-average defense in left field, he's been roughly a 3.5-win player in each of the last two seasons, which would be an immediate win-plus addition for San Diego if you just look at him as an upgrade over the now-traded Hunter Renfroe. Because Pham really should play left, however, his arrival might signal the end of Wil Myers' time in San Diego, or at the very least consign Myers to a bench role. Myers is a replacement-level player, and a lineup that features Pham and Trent Grisham in the corners instead of Myers and Renfroe is probably going to be worth 2.5 to 3 more wins, mostly gained on offense.
The Padres also picked up Jake Cronenworth, an actual two-way prospect who hit .334/.429/.520 at Triple-A Durham last year (with the juiced major league ball) and threw 7⅓ innings, striking out nine but walking eight. He has a great arm, up to 96 with a plus curveball, but hadn't pitched since 2015 in college before last season. At the plate, some small mechanical tweaks helped him drive the ball more consistently last season. He played short, second and third and is a great option as a utility infielder/righty specialist for the end of the roster; if Jurickson Profar doesn't hit, the Padres could do worse than letting Cronenworth play semiregularly at second.
The deal came at a huge cost to San Diego, however. Xavier Edwards is a premier prospect, coming in at No. 46 on my midseason top 50 prospects update after showing exceptional bat control in his first full year in pro ball. He's a plus-plus runner who walked 44 times and struck out just 54 times across low-A and high-A last season at age 19, playing primarily second base with a handful of games at short. I think he could stick at the latter position if the Rays want to move him back there, although they have some plus defenders at short in their system and might just leave Edwards at second, where he projects to be at least an above-average defender. Edwards' one main deficiency is a lack of power; it's not an issue now, and his type of player can succeed with no power, but he does have to show he can continue to make high-quality contact against better pitching as he moves up the ladder. I think he's a longtime regular with some chance of becoming a star if he just adds enough strength to get to grade-40 power.
Renfroe seemed like a non-tender candidate to me, a player whose skills are traditionally overvalued in the arbitration process. He has a career .294 OBP, with a .289 OBP last year even though offense was up across the board, and has never really adjusted to major league breaking stuff. His other tools are all above average, including his defensive tools, but he's about to turn 28 and the odds are that he's going to be a low-OBP guy forever except when his BABIP spikes. The Rays could play him regularly, but they'd be worse off for doing so than they would have been had they kept Pham and continued to try to contend in 2020. The best outcome for Rays fans would be if this move just clears playing time for a healthy Yandy Diaz to take over in left, as his breakout seems sustainable and that's probably his best defensive position.