HOUSTON -- Bill James, the eminent baseball historian and writer, created a system a few years ago to rank starting pitchers. The system updates with each game and rankings change based on a balance between recent performance and track record. But generally speaking, players move up or down the list only gradually.
Here is James' current top five starting pitchers in the majors:
1. Gerrit Cole, Astros
2. Justin Verlander, Astros
3. Max Scherzer, Nationals
4. Jacob deGrom, Mets
5. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
As you no doubt noticed, the pitching matchups for Games 1 and 2 are contained in that short list of five. And since you're wondering, it's possible that Game 3 will pit Washington's Patrick Corbin against Houston's Zack Greinke. (Nationals manager Dave Martinez didn't name a Game 3 starter on Monday, as it's possible Corbin might be once again called into service out of the bullpen.) James has Corbin ranked No. 8 and Greinke No. 10.
For all the recent trends toward bullpen reliance and use of the opener, the World Series features the game's two best rotations pitted against each other. Both managers want their pitchers to work deep. Pitch counts will once again be something relevant to track, since managers won't simply yank a starter after two trips through the opposing lineup. Durability and fatigue will be storylines. Probably.
"I'll believe it when I see it," Astros manager A.J. Hinch joked. "I think they should take their starter out after the third inning, to be honest."
Pitching duels are back in the Fall Classic in a big way. Pull out those sepia-colored memories of Bob Gibson versus Mickey Lolich or Jack Morris against John Smoltz -- we may be getting some 21st-century high-definition snapshots to add to your pitching duel scrapbook on a nightly basis.
We all have recency bias when spectacular things unfold during a baseball season. We see a player or a team or a league or some other subdivision of the game go nuts, and it's natural to ask: Is this the best thing ever? So of course we now have to wonder if this is the best team-vs.-team rotation matchup in World Series history.
"It's great," Verlander said. "It says a lot about the state of baseball that the two best rotations are here in the World Series."
The state of baseball is that this season, more innings went to relief pitchers than in any other season ever. Bullpenners were responsible for 42% of all innings this season. Yet there is plenty of evidence that elite starters like the ones featured in this World Series have never been more highly valued.
That's true in a literal sense: According to ESPN Stats & Information research, the Nationals are paying their top three starters $77.8 million this season, more than any other team. In second place: the Astros at $73 million.
"Starting pitching is always at a premium," Strasburg said. "It costs a lot of money in free agency. It's hard to really grow that in-house. I think both of our organizations have obviously put together some strong rotations."
Think of it this way: If money were not a factor and you were talking about only one season and you were spotted a top-four starting staff of the Games 1 and 2 pitchers, is there any one-for-one trade you'd really make for another starting pitcher? The matchups just don't get any better.
Money is a factor, though, and we know that. There is nothing deft or clever or cutting-edge about it. The teams have these rotations because they've been willing to pay the going rate, in terms of salary and/or trade assets. If you're talking about a $140 million payout for six pitchers, they'd better be good. That gets back to Strasburg's comment about the "premium" of starting pitching. Their roles have changed over the years, but top starters are still granted the lofty status that typically comes with the scarcity of a commodity.
A fun thing about starting pitchers is their cliquishness -- they all seem to appreciate what all the rest of them do. So even though the pitchers on these teams are about to go toe-to-toe with the championship on the line, they still kind of like one another.
"I'm thrilled about this," Cole said. "I know a couple of guys in their rotation pretty well. I know how much they prepare and how much work they put into their craft. I'm personally excited that they are in this position. And I'm just excited to go get after it whenever [Hinch] gives me the baseball."
Think about how the respective rotations were built. The Nationals drafted Strasburg No. 1 in 2009. He's the one pitcher in the respective rotations drafted and developed by one of the teams. He's remained a one-team guy, but Washington has had to pay up to make that happen. Strasburg signed a seven-year, $123 million extension with the team in 2016, one he could opt out of after this season if he sees fit.
The Nationals signed Scherzer to a seven-year, $210 million free-agent deal in 2015. Corbin signed on last offseason, with a six-year, $140 million in December that actually makes him the budget option among Washington's aces.
Meanwhile, the Astros traded for Verlander in 2017 and signed him to a two-year, $66 million extension in March. They traded for Cole -- who was picked No. 1 overall two years after Strasburg -- and while he's earning a last-year-of-arbitration salary of $13.5 million this season, he's about to cash in with a monster contract this winter. Finally, Houston acquired Zack Greinke and his two years for $64 million remaining after this season. (Arizona sent the Astros $26 million as part of the trade, per Cot's Contracts, to help defray some of the cost.)
"I personally am a big fan of starting pitching," Cole said. "I grew up wanting to become a starting pitcher, and I'm a starting pitcher now. And there are a lot of really good starting pitchers on the other side of the field, guys that kind of emulate the role in terms of longevity, durability, creativeness, tenacity, grit. And so just a pleasure to share the field with them on the greatest stage at this point."
Because the super-rotations were cobbled together over the years with trades and truckloads of cash, there are a number of interconnections between the staffs that add to the intrigue -- and the mutual admiration society.
Verlander, Scherzer and Washington's No. 4 starter, Anibal Sanchez, were all members of the Tigers' rotation when Detroit advanced to the 2012 World Series. Seven years later, they meet again.
"The one thing that sticks out is the longevity between us," Verlander said. "That's pretty special. I wish I could have been healthy back then to complement the rotation we had. Unfortunately, I wasn't 100%. It was a special time, special team. I think Detroit remembers those moments very well. I wish we could have won a championship, but we didn't. Here we are now, going against each other on separate teams. It's just the nature of the game."
Scherzer had not yet reached Mad Max status when he joined Verlander and the Tigers, but he found himself while they were together, winning the 2013 American League Cy Young Award.
"I remember when Max got there, a guy full of promise, had great stuff but just really hadn't put it together yet," Verlander said. "I really remember when it clicked for him. He kind of struggled for the first month or so of the season, then made an adjustment, told me he was making an adjustment, and it really paid dividends right away. Pretty much from that point forward, he's been the Max that everybody knows now."
It's ironic that the 2012 Tigers rotation would be such a topic on the day before the 2019 World Series, but the connections are deep.
"In Detroit I learned so much from everybody, and especially from Ver," Scherzer said. "Just how to go about it, attack the lineup, how you take a ball every fifth day. Just all the little things that go into being a major league pitcher. He was at the forefront of that, and we all developed together and it was a fun time."
Meanwhile, Greinke and Corbin teamed up in Arizona. Greinke was a long-established ace when he joined the Diamondbacks on a huge free-agent deal before the 2016 season. Their first year together was a rough one for Corbin -- he went 5-13 with a 5.15 ERA. After that, Corbin morphed into the high-strikeout pitcher we've seen the last couple of years and enticed Washington to reinvest some of their Bryce Harper dollars in him.
"I enjoyed [Greinke], for sure," Corbin said. "I just learned a lot from him and his preparation. What he does on the mound is pretty special to do for a long time. I'm happy for the guy."
Strasburg and Cole are both No. 1 overall picks, both hail from Southern California and excelled there through their college years, and both are represented by Scott Boras. They are similar in those ways, though their competitive paths didn't cross that much in their pre-professional years.
"I think I maybe played catch with him once or twice and caught up with him either here or there on the field or offseason in training, occasionally," Cole said. "Obviously, Scott speaks very highly of him. So do his teammates. In the short chance that I've gotten to know him I thought he was really an enjoyable person to be around. Obviously, he's really perfecting his craft at this point in his career."
Friends and foes. Teams flush with aces. It all makes it seem like runs figure to be precious in the days to come. Pitch counts and pitching duels are back. The World Series figures to be a bonanza for aficionados of elite starting pitching.
"You've got to beat their starters," Hinch said, though it was a sentiment that just as well could have been uttered by Martinez. "If you want to do well against the Nats, you've got to beat their starters and then make them make decisions as the game goes on.
"If you sit back and kind of wait for the bullpen or wait for them to make a decision, you'll look at Strasburg and Scherzer throwing 120, 130 pitches and you'll be too deep in the game to make up a difference."