NEW YORK -- The Houston Astros competed in the National League from their formation in 1962 until they moved to the American League West in 2013. The Washington Nationals didn't exist until 2005, though their forerunners, the Montreal Expos, shared a league with the Astros from 1969 to 2004.
Thus, the only possible seasons that could have ended in an Astros-Nationals World Series have been the past seven. This season marked just the second time in those seven seasons that both teams made the playoffs. And so here we are: the Astros and Nationals in a brand-new Fall Classic rivalry.
In fact, there isn't a ton of history in terms of high-profile sports clashes between these two cities. The one that does come to mind is the 1984 NCAA tournament, in which the Patrick Ewing-led Georgetown Hoyas defeated Akeem (as it was spelled at the time) Olajuwon's Houston Cougars in the championship game.
There are a few elements of historical irony in play. The Astros spent most of their history in the NL, while Washington for decades was a fixture in the AL, albeit typically in the second division (Washington: first in war, first in peace and last in the American League). In that way, the teams are flip-flopped. This is Washington's first NL flag, and Houston now has two in the AL.
The Astros are playing in their second World Series in three seasons, having defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers in a thrilling, seven-game series in 2017. On the other hand, this is the first pennant for the Expos/Nationals franchise. It's the first pennant for a Washington-based team since the Senators won the 1933 AL flag. When the Nationals host Game 3 on Friday, it will be the first World Series game in the nation's capital since Oct. 7, 1933, when the Senators lost to the New York Giants on a 10th-inning home run by Mel Ott.
History aside, the 2019 version of this brand-new rivalry is a fascinating one. Both teams have been playing elite baseball for months. The end points are arbitrary, but we're talking about a large swath of the schedule: After the Nationals' low-water point of 12 games under .500 on May 23, Washington went 74-38, with a Pythagorean win percentage of .651. Houston went 74-37 and .653 during that span. That's pretty much dead even.
With a bit of a layoff until the World Series begins on Tuesday, we'll have a couple of days to dig deep into this matchup. But here are a few morsels to chew on from what promises to be a compelling Fall Classic.
1. Power trio versus four-man band
A lot has been written about the return of starting pitching as a key part of the October formula, and in that respect, the Astros and Nationals make the perfect World Series pairing. You would be hard-pressed to find more elite starting pitchers in any possible matchup than what will be on display the next couple of weeks.
According to the FanGraphs version of WAR, here are the top 10 pitchers in baseball the past three seasons:
fWAR, PITCHERS (2017 TO 2019)
1. Max Scherzer, Nationals (20.5)
2. Jacob deGrom, Mets (20.2)
3. Chris Sale, Red Sox (17.4)
4. Justin Verlander, Astros (17.2)
5. Gerrit Cole, Astros (16.8)
6. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals (14.0)
7. Patrick Corbin, Nationals (13.7)
8. Aaron Nola, Phillies (13.4)
9. Corey Kluber, Indians (13.3)
10. Zack Greinke, Astros (13.1)
Five of the top seven! Six of the top 10! Lovers of starting pitching and old-fashioned aces have to be enthused. If baseball is a copycat league to an extent, then having two teams fueled by stud starting pitchers in the World Series is a good thing. Finding ace pitchers is obviously easier said than done, but having a clutch of these guys is still the simplest recipe for high-level success.
The possible pitching matchups are tasty. Most likely, we're looking at Cole against Scherzer in Game 1, followed by Verlander against Strasburg in Game 2 and Greinke against Corbin in Game 3. Game 4 becomes interesting in this respect: The Nationals can trot out Anibal Sanchez, who has been lights-out in this postseason and very good in the playoffs over the course of his career. The Astros, on the other hand, have had questions about their lack of a good fourth starter hovering over them all October.
Houston hasn't had to answer those questions because the Astros navigated through the ALDS and ALCS with three starters. They won't be able to do that in the World Series without another intervention by Mother Nature.
There are also lots of interrelationships among the pitchers on these teams. Sanchez, Scherzer and Verlander were members of the same Detroit Tigers rotation on some postseason teams earlier in the decade. Greinke and Corbin likewise were rotation-mates in Arizona. Cole and Strasburg are both from Southern California and Scott Boras clients.
2. Rust never sleeps
After a five-game ALDS and three games in three days to finish off the Yankees, the Astros' two days off before the World Series bring a welcome break and a chance to set the starting rotation. The Nationals have had that and then some. When the Series begins, the Nats will have had six days off since they finished their sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals.
According to ESPN Stats & Info, six teams have had a layoff of six or more days between the LCS and the World Series. Their collective record in Games 1 and 2 of the Fall Classic is 5-7. The list:
• The 1995 Braves went 2-0 in Games 1 and 2 and went on to win the title in six games.
• The 1996 Yankees went 0-2 in Games 1 and 2 but won the title in six.
• The 2007 Rockies went 0-2 in Games 1 and 2 and were swept in four.
• The other three teams (2006 Tigers, 2008 Phillies, 2009 Phillies) split their first two games of the World Series.
For the record: During regular-season play, Scherzer is 14-10 with a 2.98 ERA in 40 starts on six or more days' rest. Strasburg is 19-13 with a 3.10 ERA in 42 long-rest starts. Corbin is 13-7 with a 3.43 ERA in 24 such starts. Sanchez is 19-9 with a 3.37 ERA in 54 such starts.
If the Astros are hoping that rust is their friend, these numbers don't seem like particularly good news.
3. Hot, hot, hot corner
In Washington's Anthony Rendon and Houston's Alex Bregman, we've got arguably baseball's two best third basemen meeting. For fans of a certain age, it hearkens back to the 1980 World Series, in which Kansas City's George Brett went up against Philadelphia's Mike Schmidt.
Apologies to fans of Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, Jose Ramirez and Matt Chapman, but over the past three seasons, Rendon leads all third basemen with 19.9 fWAR, and Bregman is a close second with 19.5. From there, third-place Ramirez is at 17.9.
Rendon and Bregman are both on top of their games as the series begins, though Rendon has had the more dynamic playoff run so far. They are both leading MVP candidates in their respective leagues, with fan bases chanting "MVP! MVP!" when they step to the plate. Neither player is likely to actually win the award ... but they might.
Also, there are cross-city personal connections in play. Rendon was born and raised in Houston and was a star high school player there. Although Bregman grew up in Albuquerque, he has familial ties to D.C. baseball. Bregman's grandfather, Stan, was general counsel for the second version of the Washington Senators, the one that is now the Texas Rangers. His father, Sam, used to hang around the office of those Senators' manager: Ted Williams.
In fact, Bregman once told ESPN, "My dad grew up on Ted Williams' lap when he was with the Senators."
4. Shape of bullpens to come
The Astros' bullpen stood up nicely to its vaunted Yankees counterpart in the ALCS. Of course, it doesn't hurt that Houston's relievers are able to target more regular-season-type roles because of the quality innings AJ Hinch gets from his rotation. The Nationals have that, too, but in the playoffs, Dave Martinez has augmented his thin relief staff with bullpen stints from his top three starters. Strasburg, Scherzer and Corbin have worked a total of five games of relief among them in October.
Hinch has simply not had to do that with his staff. Besides the deep outings he has gotten from Cole and Verlander, Hinch has gradually seen his relief staff crystallize after some rocky beginnings. Closer Roberto Osuna has been solid throughout, and righty-throwing lefty nightmare Will Harris has been dynamite. Young Josh James has emerged as a power leverage option, covering for Hinch's seeming lack of confidence in Hector Rondon, and Joe Smith threw the ball very well against the Yankees.
The best news of all was an outing by Ryan Pressly, one of Houston's key setup relievers. After struggling badly through the opening rounds, Pressly got two big strikeouts with the bases loaded in Game 4 against New York, vindicating Hinch's steadfast confidence in him. (The Astros will be hoping Pressly is ready for the Series after he left Game 6 with knee soreness after fielding a comebacker.)
Washington has gotten good news from its relief staff as well. Sean Doolittle has been throwing the ball with renewed vigor, and Daniel Hudson is a weapon. But the Houston bullpen seems to be coming together at just the right time -- at least to the extent to which it is needed.
5. Clash of the baby bombers
Okay, hitters don't compete head-to-head, per se, except in the Home Run Derby, but the World Series will see two of the most dynamic young left-handed hitters we've seen in a long time: Juan Soto for the Nationals and Yordan Alvarez for the Astros.
Alvarez, 22, is the rookie, but Soto, 20, is younger. Still, Soto has nearly 800 more career plate appearances under his belt, so his numbers to date are more concrete. Still, consider this slash line comparison:
Soto: .287/.403/.535
Alvarez: .313/.412/.655
These guys are both college-aged! Soto averages 34 homers, 110 RBIs and 114 runs per 162 games thus far in his career. Alvarez is at a ridiculous pace of 50 homers, 145 RBIs and 108 runs per 162 games.
Although these are two different players in terms of style and body type, one key thing they have in common is a well-rounded game at the dish. They are not pure sluggers or three-true-outcomes aficionados. Neither player has hit that well so far in October, though Soto has come up with a couple of huge hits for Washington. Alvarez fell into a deep slump during the ALCS. Still, given the range of their skills, it doesn't seem like that will last much longer.
Alvarez has DHed for Hinch this October, which means his presence looms as a key strategic factor in the matchup. In Houston, Alvarez continues to DH, no problem. At Nationals Park, though, he'll come off the bench. Perhaps Hinch would be tempted to move pieces around to wedge Alvarez into the lineup if he were rolling right now, but that isn't the case.
Even so, Hinch is on top of in-game strategies new and old, and he'll know how to recognize the highest-leverage spots in which to get maximum punch from Alvarez's bat. He isn't going to yank Cole or Verlander early, but it doesn't have to be the pitcher's spot: Hinch could send Alvarez up in a key spot to bat for Josh Reddick or Kyle Tucker or Jake Marisnick or even a catcher, depending on his starting lineup. However it happens, Alvarez's presence on the Houston bench will have to be tracked by Martinez.
Game 1 is Tuesday at Minute Maid Park in Houston. Let the clash of aces, baby bombers and star third basemen begin.