The winner-take-all wild-card games are in the books. Time for the best-of-fives.
With the National League Division Series beginning Thursday and the American League Division Series starting Friday, ESPN.com MLB insiders Buster Olney, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield set the stage for the next round.
ALDS
Yankees vs. Twins: Who will hit more home runs and will it be the same team that wins the series?
Buster Olney: If the two teams play to form and the series goes to five games, we might see something in the range of 20 to 25 home runs in the series. But I don't think that'll happen -- as the heart rates increase, the pitching performances generally improve. I'll say the Twins hit more home runs but not so many more that the Bomba Squad pushes the team to a series win.
Bradford Doolittle: I'll cheat and say they will tie. After all, the Twins hit only one more than New York over 162 games. But I do this to make a point: Both teams will rely on homers to move the scoreboard, but the team that wins will have more runners on base when the dingers fly. I like the Yankees to be that team.
David Schoenfield: Yes, the team that hits more home runs will win the series -- as is almost always the case in October baseball these days. That team will be ... the Yankees. Sorry, Twins, your postseason horror story against the Yankees will continue. As powerful as the Minnesota offense was this year, the Twins did take advantage of three horrible pitching staffs in their division, and while they slugged .531 against bad teams, they slugged .443 against good teams. That's a much wider difference than any other playoff team.
On a scale from not worried to panicked, how concerned should the Yankees be about their rotation heading into the ALDS?
Olney: On a scale of 1-10, the panic should be at about 2½, because even if those guys were going great, manager Aaron Boone would still rely heavily on his bullpen, which will be fully rested, prepped and ready to go. Remember, the many off days early in the playoffs really help the relievers -- they'll have four days off this week, another after Game 2, perhaps another after Game 4 (if necessary). The staggered schedule is what allowed the Indians to get through the first two rounds of the 2016 postseason while mostly using Corey Kluber and three relievers.
Doolittle: Concern is healthy. Panic is not. There were enough good things happening down the stretch that if James Paxton is a full go, the Yankees can hope for enough passable rotation innings to be able to leverage their powerful bullpen. I'd give the Yankees three fingers of scotch on a five-finger scale.
Schoenfield: I prefer the more well-known "one Pepto-Bismol liquicap before the game to drinking the entire bottle before the fourth inning is over" scale. The Yankees rank somewhere around a couple of caps and maybe the bottle being kept close by ... just in case. Look, Luis Severino has made three starts and was wild in the last one. Paxton finished strong and then left his last start with a sore muscle in his rear end. Those are concerns. Still, the Yankees can bullpen their way through a best-of-five ALDS that includes two off days. That will be harder to do in the next two rounds.
Give us one good reason the Rays can beat the Astros.
Olney: They'll have absolutely nothing to lose. This potential matchup reminds me of the Dodgers and Mets in 1988: New York won 10 of 11 regular-season games against L.A., and it went into that series as the overwhelming favorite. But in the postseason, one game or even one moment can shift the direction of a series, and if the Rays could steal a Game 1 against Justin Verlander while using an opener, playing pressure-free, then they could roll on, as the '88 Dodgers did. But let's be clear: The Astros should win this series.
Doolittle: The Rays play postseason-style baseball from the first day of the season. The Astros have been able to adapt their pitcher usage from regular-season patterns to a playoff model, a process that changes each season depending on the makeup of the Houston staff. Tampa Bay doesn't have to adapt -- its roster is already composed in a way that allows Kevin Cash to insert the right player in the right moment. Tampa Bay is built for this stuff, especially given the return of some key arms late in the season.
Schoenfield: Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow came off the injured list late in the season, and while they haven't yet pitched deep into games, their returns do give the Rays a lot more pitching depth. Both have the ability to dominate in short stints as starters -- along with ace Charlie Morton -- and a deep arsenal of bullpen arms could hold down the Houston offense. If the Rays win, it will be because that pitching excels in a low-scoring series.
NLDS
Which young star will have a bigger impact on their NLDS -- Ronald Acuna Jr. or Jack Flaherty?
Olney: Flaherty, because the Cardinals' fate probably rests on him -- if he dominates, he'll drive St. Louis into the National League Championship Series, and if he struggles, it's hard to imagine the Cardinals overcoming that. I'll say it again: He's the closest thing we've seen to John Smoltz.
Doolittle: I don't think it's a stretch to say that, based on his age and trajectory, Acuna looks like a future Hall of Famer. We can't say that about Flaherty at this point. Still, Flaherty is the hottest player in either league entering the playoffs, and as a starting pitcher who works deep, he can dominate a game anytime he takes the hill. Acuna is a bit hobbled and has only one plate appearance since Sept. 21. Hard to pick against Acuna, but it seems wise in this instance.
Schoenfield: How can I pick against the hottest pitcher in the game? Flaherty has a 0.91 ERA in the second half and finished with two of his best starts of the season: seven innings in both starts, no runs, three combined hits. Because the Cards had to use him Sunday to wrap up the division, he won't be ready to go until Game 2, but with two potential off days, he'd be ready to go again in Game 5 if the series goes that far.
Which NLDS pitcher would you most want on the mound for a Game 5 next week?
Olney: Wow. Tough question. I'll go with the guy who has pitched the best in the second half -- Flaherty, who has pitched almost as well as Jake Arrieta did in the second half of 2015.
Doolittle: A relatively struggling Max Scherzer. There's no Jacob deGrom. Clayton Kershaw isn't as dominant as he used to be. It comes down to a young gun: Flaherty or Walker Buehler. As hot as Flaherty has been, I'll go with Buehler for a slightly longer window of dominance. Flaherty has 20 starts with a game score of 70 or better the past two seasons; Buehler is at 21. But Flaherty has needed 61 starts to get to that number, and Buehler needed only 53. This is a tough call, and while I don't think the postseason stage will bother Flaherty, I'll go with Buehler because he has experienced October baseball firsthand.
Schoenfield: I'm all-in on Flaherty right now. The only concern with Flaherty: He has thrown 196 innings, so he's already in uncharted territory for him. He seems to be getting stronger, however, as his three highest pitch counts of the season came in September. Maybe that's a bad thing. Or maybe it's a sign of a huge October to come. I'll take Flaherty, even with his lack of playoff experience.
Is the winner of Nats-Dodgers going to the World Series?
Olney: If Freddie Freeman is able to find some kind of functional comfort zone with his elbow, the Braves will find a way to push through. They are much more equipped for the postseason than they were a year ago, but there will be moments when they'll need Freeman to be Freeman.
Doolittle: That'd be my pick, though it won't be easy to get past the Braves-Cardinals winner. The Dodgers are on a different tier than anyone else in the NL. But if the Nats knock them out, it figures to be because of transcendent performances by their stars -- Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner and Juan Soto. If those guys are clicking well enough to survive L.A., Washington will be in good shape for the NLCS.
Schoenfield: Funny story. I've been saying all year that I had Astros over Dodgers as my preseason World Series. Then I just realized I had Astros over Nationals. So I guess the winner of this series will indeed go to the World Series. And don't discount the Nationals' chances. Corbin will get the NLDS opener and he's extremely tough on lefties: .190/.260/.248, which pushes Joc Pederson to the bench and could neutralize Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy.
And then there were four ...
Predictions reset: What are your ALCS and NLCS matchups today?
Olney: I've got Braves-Dodgers in the NL and Yankees-Astros in the AL.
Doolittle: In the AL, Astros-Yankees, something that has seemed so inevitable for so long you can almost assume it won't happen. I'll stick with Cardinals-Dodgers in the NL. St. Louis is my gut pick, though I think their matchup with the Braves is very close when you dig in deep.
Schoenfield: Yankees versus Astros and Cardinals versus Dodgers. Although the more I look at the idea of Corbin getting two starts, plus Scherzer and Strasburg ...