Baseball's postseason is a monthlong drama where the stakes grow higher with each passing day. The pressure builds as the finish line nears. But the forces behind that pressure aren't the same for every team.
We did this exercise last year, too. The idea is to quantify the urgency every 2019 playoff team carries with it into October. I didn't change anything in the system, so I'll recap the methodology here:
Baseball historian and stats guru Bill James has a system he developed that he called Happy Years. The idea is to figure out which team "deserves" to win the title most in a given year. It's based on things you'd expect ... how long it has been since a team won the World Series, how long since it has won a pennant. And there is a "knocking on the door" factor that looks at how many good seasons a club has had recently without winning it all.
The system is a positive one. It's called Happy Years, after all. It's about helping us appreciate certain teams and deciding whom we might root for if our primary team is out of the running. The system I present today is not a positive one. It's cynical. This system is a "you'd better win the damn thing already" kind of deal.
Mostly, I'm borrowing James' system as is, only viewing it through the more cynical prism. But I've added another factor, which is impending free agents. I've calculated how much WAR a team's potential free agents are worth, leaving aside those who have contract options yet to be decided. This is meant to approximate a "closing window" effect, the kind of which can heighten the urgency of a club to win in a given season.
Here is a ranking of this year's playoff combatants by "pressure points."
1. Washington Nationals
Pressure points: 282.2
Most recent title: Never
How is it possible that a team has more pressure on it than the two-time defending bridesmaid Los Angeles Dodgers? Well, first of all, the Nationals would have topped this list last season but didn't make the playoffs. This time around, the good seasons continued to pile up even though the Nationals are still looking for their first pennant. It's a drought that extended through the entire history of Washington's forerunner, the Montreal Expos. And let's not forget that Washington, as a city, hasn't hosted a pennant winner since the 1933 Senators or a World Series winner since 1924.
The Nats remain pennantless despite an active streak of eight consecutive winning seasons in which they've averaged 91.3 wins per year. And, oh yeah, one season after losing franchise face Bryce Harper to free agency, his heir apparent in that role, Anthony Rendon, hits the market this winter.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
Pressure points: 214.8
Most recent title: 1988
We know what's up with L.A. One of baseball's glamour franchises, the Dodgers have won the National League West seven years in a row. They've won the past two NL pennants and have advanced to the National League Championship Series four times in six seasons entering this October. And yet, the Dodgers have not won the World Series since 1988. That's plenty of urgency, though these facts aren't really amplified all that much by L.A.'s impending free agents, at least not in the way they were last season when Manny Machado was nearing the end of his walk year.
This year's pending free-agent list for L.A. is topped by Hyun-Jin Ryu. He's a great pitcher, perhaps this year's NL Cy Young winner, but the specter of his departure doesn't exactly mark this as a now-or-never postseason for the Dodgers.
3. Oakland Athletics
Pressure points: 207.4
Most recent title: 1989
The team the Dodgers beat back in '88 was the Athletics, who bounced back to win it all the very next season. Oakland then reeled off a third straight American League pennant in 1990. Since then, zippo in terms of big flags, a stretch that more than encompasses the entire Hall of Fame career of chief executive Billy Beane, who ascended to his role in 1998. Since then, the A's have won 90 or more games 10 times, including 97 in each of the past two campaigns. And yet ... zero pennants. That's enough to slot the A's third, even though they don't have much in the way of key free agents on the way out.
4. Milwaukee Brewers
Pressure points: 190.2
Most recent title: Never
In reality, the Brewers are playing with house money. After Christian Yelich was injured, few observers outside of Wisconsin thought Milwaukee would return to the October melee in the first place. But now that the Brewers are back, their history comes back into the equation. Milwaukee has never won the World Series, and it hasn't won a pennant since moving to the National League in 1998.
And after a run of success ended in 2011, the resurgent Brewers have a winning record in each of the past three campaigns. Milwaukee fell one win shy of the World Series last season, and even with their MVP missing, the pressure is building for the Brewers to carry this thing all the way through.
5. Minnesota Twins
Pressure points: 188.6
Most recent title: 1991
A newbie to our list, the Twins would have ranked eighth in last year's ratings had they made the playoffs. The Twins' most recent pennant and World Series title date back to 1991, the year Jack Morris beat the Braves in 10 innings to clinch the title. Minnesota hasn't recorded a single postseason win in 15 years. Beyond that, the Twins had a long run of success during the Ron Gardenhire/Torii Hunter era that included six playoff appearances in nine years without a paying off in a pennant. They made a surprise wild-card appearance just two years ago, but lost to the Yankees.
On top of all this, Minnesota has a pretty good list of impending free agents, including starting pitchers Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda, infielder Jonathan Schoop and reliever Sergio Romo. These things add up.
6. Atlanta Braves
Pressure points: 186.4
Most recent title: 1995
The Braves are up one slot from last season, and the same factors apply this time around. Even though Atlanta is in just its second postseason since emerging from a four-year rebuild, it has been a while since Atlanta's remarkable run of success in the 1990s and early 2000s. The tail end of that spree still shows up in the 20-year window for which we tally "happy" seasons, but don't forget that before the rebuild, Atlanta had made the playoffs in three of four seasons. The Braves' rating is also infused with a free-agent list topped by Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel and Brian McCann.
7. New York Yankees
Pressure points: 177.4
Most recent title: 2009
Isn't playing in New York enough? Should I incorporate a "media glare" factor? Even without all of that, the Yankees' title drought is growing. After losing to Boston in the division round last year, it was up to nine years. The Yankees won 100 games for the 21st time this season. Twelve of those previous century-mark winners went on to win the Fall Classic.
You might think that because everyone is so thrilled with Aaron Boone's team and its ability to work around numerous injuries, the pressure valve might be loosened a bit. But you'd be wrong. We're talking about the New York Yankees in October.
8. Tampa Bay Rays
Pressure points: 159.6
Most recent title: Never
No, there isn't a ton of pressure on the Rays, even though they've never won a World Series to punctuate the end of any of their 21 previous seasons. It's not zero -- the Rays have won 90-plus games two years running now, and enter the playoffs as a deluxe wild-card road team with 96 wins under its belt. But how much pressure could there be on a team that plays in an empty stadium?
9. St. Louis Cardinals
Pressure points: 131.1
Most recent title: 2011
The numbers say the Cardinals aren't under all that much pressure. Oh, there are some big-name free agents, such as Marcell Ozuna, Michael Wacha and franchise stalwart Adam Wainwright. And the Cardinals are making their first playoff appearance since 2015 -- an eon by St. Louis standards. But the Cardinals, who previously won the title in 2011, have a more recent title than any team ranked ahead of them.
The reemergence as a playoff team after a three-year absence buys the Redbirds some goodwill. So too does the trajectory of their season -- don't forget that one game into the second half, St. Louis was a game under .500. So while the pressure points haven't built up, as with the Yankees, the expectation in St. Louis is always about pennants and World Series crowns.
10. Houston Astros
Pressure points: 113.8
Most recent title: 2017
With the Red Sox missing the postseason, the Astros enter the playoffs as the most recent champion among this season's combatants. With a still-young core of position players, the likely AL Rookie of the Year in Yordan Alvarez, all sorts of financial flexibility and a still-strong minor league system, the window remains wide-open for Houston. In fact, the Astros are probably the team currently most well-positioned to someday be anointed a dynasty, particularly since they already have that 2017 title in the bank.
However, it's October, and that's never pressure-free. To be a dynasty, you need more than one title. Houston has the added onus of being the consensus favorite to run the table. And on the free-agent front, Gerrit Cole will carry his 20 wins and 326 strikeouts into the marketplace.
The pressure among these 10 teams might vary in relation to each other, but one thing never changes: In October, there is always pressure. That's what makes it so magical. Let's get started.