Olney: The X factor of every playoff team heading into October

A rival executive said recently that he feels as if Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has continued to improve in his role, gradually constructing more assertiveness on top of his relentless good nature. As he wins more games and the Dodgers promote more buy-in from players drafted and developed under Andrew Friedman, Roberts has piled up credibility.

And he might need it, if the Dodgers' greatest uncertainty manifests itself in October. Kenley Jansen is the team's great X factor for the postseason: When he's at his best, his velocity reaches 94 mph and his cutter cuts, and Roberts can confidently call on him believing he will shake Jansen's hand in a victory line at night's end.

But at his worst, Jansen struggles, as he did from time to time during the 2019 season. Jansen's ERA of 3.71 is a career worst. He has given up nine homers in 62 innings this season, the second most in any year of his 10-year career. Opponents have put up a .383 slugging percentage against him, pretty good among most relievers -- but Jansen is the closer of a team with aspirations of winning its first championship in 31 years.

In past postseasons, Jansen would regularly contribute more than three outs in an outing, but it seems unlikely Roberts will continue to extend him in that way -- and if Jansen gets hit, Roberts might reach for alternatives in the way that Astros manager AJ Hinch did in the 2017 postseason. Roberts and the Dodgers staff have seemingly built an array of safety nets over the past four weeks in case they need somebody else to get the last outs, but if those are needed, it'll be Roberts who must have that conversation with his All-Star closer.

Other X factors among the teams heading into the postseason:

Milwaukee Brewers: Lorenzo Cain. Milwaukee's late-season run has been incredible, and Cain has been right in the middle of that, salvaging a mediocre season with a strong finish. Over his past 24 games, Cain is hitting .320 with an .856 OPS. The veteran outfielder has almost 200 plate appearances in the postseason, and Milwaukee will need him to lead, particularly in the absence of Christian Yelich.

St. Louis Cardinals: Jack Flaherty. Yes, the Nationals and Dodgers have deeper rotations than St. Louis, and Milwaukee might have a better bullpen, and the Braves could have a more consistent lineup. But the Cardinals have Flaherty, the National League's hottest pitcher, seemingly a cross between John Smoltz and Chris Carpenter in his stuff and demeanor.

Oakland Athletics: Sean Manaea. When the left-hander was shut down because of shoulder trouble last year, there were questions about whether he could be a factor this year. Typically, shoulder issues bear greater uncertainty than elbow problems, with pitchers often taking a long time to regain command.

But since Manaea had surgery in September 2018, he has recovered his control -- after giving up only 10 walks in 36⅓ innings in the minors, he was promoted to the big leagues Sept. 1 and has been exceptional. Manaea has a 1.21 ERA in five starts, showing good stuff and striking out 30 in 29⅔ innings. The Athletics haven't formally announced who will start the AL wild-card game for them, but Manaea is in the mix -- and even if he doesn't pitch in that game, it appears he could play a significant role for Oakland if it advances to face Houston, little more than a year after evaluators feared for his future.

Houston Astros: Roberto Osuna. The Astros will enter the postseason as the clear favorites to win their second title in the past three years, and other than the persistent back trouble of shortstop Carlos Correa, everything else seems to be in place. Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole will finish first and second in the AL Cy Young voting (not necessarily in that order), and the Astros have won eight of the 10 starts made by Zack Greinke, who has a 3.10 ERA since joining Houston. The Astros lead the majors in runs scored since the All-Star break, also posting an MLB-best .884 team OPS.

And remember, in 2017, Houston won the World Series even though Ken Giles lost his job as closer early in the playoffs. They could probably succeed even without a strong performance from Osuna, but he is probably their greatest potential vulnerability, despite a strong finish to his 2019 season -- Osuna hasn't given up a run in his past 10 outings. But in the 2018 playoffs, Osuna gave up five runs in a small sample size of six innings, and will continue to be under scrutiny this year.

Minnesota Twins: Jose Berrios. He is more capable than any other Minnesota starting pitcher of shutting down a good lineup, and the Twins will be facing a great lineup in the division series when they'll match up against the Yankees. Interestingly, Berrios did not have a start against the Yankees during the regular season and hasn't pitched against New York since April 24, 2018 (when he gave up five runs in four innings).

Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman and his elbow. When healthy, he's among the very best hitters in baseball, sometimes turning on pitches and driving them into the right-field stands, but mostly carving line drives to left-center and center field. He is the anchor of Atlanta's potent lineup. But Freeman has been hampered by a bone spur in his right elbow: Over his past 12 games, Freeman is 4-for-37 with one extra-base hit, nine walks and 10 strikeouts. Time will tell if he'll find some comfort with his ailment and get back to being the Braves' biggest threat against the best pitchers in October.

Tampa Bay Rays: Efficiency. They have developed a very deep bullpen in the way that the Brewers did last year, and Tampa Bay has demonstrated it can have success without relying heavily on their starting pitchers. But think about what happened with the 2016 Indians, who leaned on Corey Kluber and three relievers until that group tired out in the World Series, or the Brewers, who battled the Dodgers to Game 7 of the NL Championship Series last year but similarly saw their pitching wear out. For the Rays to navigate their way through the postseason, they'll need the likes of Charlie Morton, Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell to pitch well -- but also to suck up a good share of innings to take pressure off the bullpen.

New York Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton. He has played a week's worth of games in his effort to prepare for the postseason and has looked good. When he's on track and on time, he can carry an offense; when he's in a funk, he can become an island of hope for opposing pitchers and managers. The depth of the Yankees' lineup will depend largely on how Stanton is swinging.

Washington Nationals: Max Scherzer. He'll start the NL wild-card game for Washington, a decision that makes all the sense in the world if you've been watching Scherzer dominate for years and recognize his standing as a the Nationals' emotional leader. But Scherzer has had mixed results since coming off the injured list in late August, and over his past three starts, he has given up 12 runs in 17⅔ innings. Manager Dave Martinez has made it clear that it will be all hands on deck in the one-game playoff Tuesday, so he could reach for Stephen Strasburg or Patrick Corbin in relief. But if the Nationals are going to finally win in October, they'll need Scherzer to be... well, Mad Max.

News from around the majors

Joe Maddon might soon be out as the Chicago Cubs manager, with his place in Chicago sports lore deeply inscribed. Lured to the Cubs by Theo Epstein after nine years in Tampa Bay, Maddon was an immediate difference-maker. Maddon brought in magicians and zoo animals and on-field breakfast buffets -- for the fun of it, and perhaps also to keep the conversation around the team away from the onerous doubts over whether the Cubs could win their first championship in more than a century. The Cubs won 97 games in Maddon's first season in 2015, and then in 2016 they reached the World Series. With one final throw to Anthony Rizzo -- Joseph John Maddon Jr., the pride of Hazelton, Pennsylvania -- joined the storied list of Chicago's championship coaches and managers: Phil Jackson, Joel Quenneville, Ozzie Guillen and Mike Ditka.

But like Ditka's Bears, Maddon's Cubs struggled to repeat that success. Epstein mentioned a lack of urgency last fall, and in Maddon's last few days of the season the collapse was total. Maddon just opened a restaurant next to Wrigley Field, however, so he won't ever be that far away, and whether he moves on to another team or never manages again, he will always be remembered for his role in conquering the longest championship drought in baseball history.

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