This time of the year, it's hard not to shift into postseason mode, at least a little bit. Some teams have clinched playoff spots, quite a few others have been eliminated from the chase. We can start evaluating possible matchups and those of us who will be covering October madness are already puzzling over our travel jigsaw.
We've got 10 precious days of regular-season baseball left, so let's not completely overlook them. Crazy stuff can still happen and, in fact, late-season shakeups have given us some of our most memorable baseball memories. Admittedly, it's not as easy these days for such history-making meltdowns to occur. First-place teams have two wild-card slots to fall back on even if they collapse, and with the 10-team postseason format, the powerhouse-versus-powerhouse photo finish is no longer possible.
In that vein, let's consider some of the biggest late-season turnarounds in the game's history. Using Baseball-Reference.com, I generated every team's record on Sept. 20 of each season going back to 1901, along with their standing in their division or pennant race. I found five instances in which a team trailed by at least four games on Sept. 20 and still ended up in first place. Let's go through that dashing quartet, plumb for some memories, and see if any of these examples provide hope for teams with flagging playoff probability percentages. Or, conversely, if they serve as a cautionary tale for teams on the verge of booking their postseason passage.
All told, 91.2% of teams in first place through Sept. 20 have ended up in the postseason. But that leaves 8.8%, right? If your team is still chasing and has not yet been eliminated, you can look at history and in all earnestness declare, "So you're saying there is still a chance."
We'll work our way up to the largest deficit that has been overcome. The big moment for each team was identified by using the championship probability added (CPA) metric at thebaseballgauge.com.
5. 2012 Oakland Athletics (trailed Texas by four games on Sept. 20)
What happened: The A's seem to always be coming from behind in their playoff chases, a pattern they've followed this season. In 2012, Oakland trailed by as many as 12 games in the AL West and still had ground to make up after beating Detroit on Sept. 20. Oakland then lost the next two and three of four, slipping five back of the Rangers. Then they stopped losing, winning their last six games, including a three-game sweep of Texas to finish the season and take the division. When they beat the Rangers 12-5 on the last day of the regular season, it was the only day during the entire campaign the A's held sole possession of first place.
Big moment: (.15 CPA) -- The A's scored two runs in the fourth inning of the season finale when Texas' Josh Hamilton just plain whiffed on a routine fly to center off the bat of Yoenis Cespedes. The miscue scored two runs, breaking a 5-5 tie and Oakland went on to pull away.
Hope or caution: The Indians, Cubs and Brewers are all within that four-game or so range of first place. There's still hope, and none of them have Hamilton playing center field.
4. 1965 Los Angeles Dodgers (trailed the Giants by four games in the NL)
When you talk about all-time great pennant races, the kind that simply can't happen any longer, the 1965 National League was a prototype. The Dodgers led the NL by a game through the results of Sept. 1. They then went 22-6 the rest of the way, a stretch that included a 13-game winning streak. And they still won the division by only two games over the Giants, who had a 14-game winning streak during the final month. Truly, they just don't make 'em like that any more.
Big moment: (.05 CPA) -- On Sept. 28, Lou Johnson hit a 12th-inning homer off Cincinnati's Joey Jay, giving the Dodgers a 2-1 win. That put L.A. in first place all alone, a lead they never relinquished.
Hope or caution: Johnson was 30 years old in 1965 and before that season, hadn't played in the majors since 1962. Entering the campaign, he had a total of 47 career hits. He ended up getting a smattering of votes in the NL MVP balloting. His case reminds me very much of Cleveland's Mike Freeman. Freeman won't get any MVP votes, but he's 31, had two career homers coming into this season, in which he has collected 41 of his 52 career hits. And with Jason Kipnis injured, the opportunity for an unsung hero is glaring in Cleveland.
3. 1962 San Francisco Giants (trailed the Dodgers by four games on Sept. 20)
Sept. 20, 1962, was a rough day for the Giants. Behind Jack Sanford, San Francisco led the Cardinals 4-1 entering the bottom of the seventh. But Sanford was tiring and after giving up a single and issuing two walks, Alvin Dark called for veteran Billy Pierce to escape the jam. Pierce promptly walked Stan Musial to force in a run. Another scored on a Julian Javier error. Still, San Francisco took a 4-3 lead into the ninth. First, Dick LeMay balked in the tying run. Then Dark brought on Don Larsen, who gave up a single to Ken Boyer, driving home Mike Shannon with the winning run. With that loss, the Giants were four back, their largest deficit since early August. San Francisco recovered, but more than that, the Dodgers collapsed, losing four straight to finish the regular season. That forced a best-of-three tiebreaker that the Giants won in three.
Big moment: (.158 CPA) -- The Giants won the playoff clincher by scoring four runs in the top of the ninth and winning 6-4. By the metrics, the key play was Jim Davenport's bases-loaded walk off Stan Williams that forced in Felipe Alou with the go-ahead run.
Hope or caution: Twins, beware. Minnesota has a nice cushion but like the '65 Dodgers, the Twins have a pretty strong team chasing them in Cleveland. And the Indians won the season series, so they'd get to host a tiebreaker game.
2. 1951 New York Giants (trailed the Dodgers by 4½ games on Sept. 20)
We know how this one turned out -- "The Shot Heard 'Round the World." The Giants had already trimmed a 13-game deficit to three, but on Sept. 20 they lost 3-1 to Cincinnati, while the Dodgers beat the Cardinals and opened their lead to 4½. Breathing room! But there was no denying those Giants, who won their last seven games to force a three-game playoff. They split the first two and then New York took the finale at the Polo Grounds in one of the most famous games ever played.
Big moment: (.357 CPA) -- Yeah, that's the Bobby Thomson homer off Ralph Branca. Sometimes the metrics get it right.
1. 1964 St. Louis Cardinals (trailed the Phillies by 6½ games on Sept. 20)
St. Louis was also tied with the Reds on Sept. 20, when the Redbirds dropped a 9-6 decision to Cincinnati. The Giants were lurking just a half-game back of the Cardinals and Reds. But what did it matter? The Phillies led by 6½ games with 13 to play! A 1964 version of me would already have been thumbing through the Philly yellow pages looking for a hotel near Connie Mack Stadium. The Phillies beat the Dodgers on Sept. 20 then lost 10 straight. When they finally snapped the skid on the second-to-last day of the season, they had already been eliminated. Their manager, Gene Mauch, managed 22 more seasons in the big leagues but never did win a pennant. There is so much more to say about 1964 that someone really ought to write a book about it.
Big moment: (.059 CPA) -- The Phillies' face-plant opened the door for St. Louis, which went on an eight-game tear to seize the lead. Still, they entered the final day of the season tied with Cincinnati, while the Phillies trailed by a game. The Cardinals needed to win their last game or they'd either finish a game back of Cincinnati, or in a three-way tie with the Reds and Phils. Philadelphia pounded the Reds 10-0. Meanwhile, the Cardinals romped over the woeful Mets 11-5. The biggest CPA score in that finale was Ken Boyer's tying double off Galen Cisco in the fifth.
Hope or caution: Well, the Mets pop up in this tale, so why not throw some hope their way? New York is but 3½ games out of a wild-card slot. Historically speaking, it's nothing.
EXTRA INNINGS
1. In a recent piece I did looking at various home run quests for each team, I wrote about how this year's Blue Jays were climbing the list of clubs for most homers by rookies. Well, Toronto recently climbed another rung. Through Wednesday, Jays rookies had hit 86 homers this season, a total that has been bested only three times: The 2006 Marlins (112), 2003 Indians (107) and the 1982 Twins (106). The Blue Jays are probably not catching any of those three.
2. We've heard plenty about baseball's attendance decline this year. Well, if such a thing is a referendum on the sport in general, you'd never know it by looking at minor league attendance figures. The bottom line: Attendance in the bushes is up more than one million over last season.
3. My colleague David Schoenfield recently listed his best-possible World Series matchups. Not that you need another such list, but as it happens, I have a system, one that is heavily weighted toward classic matchups, rematches and the narrative momentum that is created by a team with a long-existing title drought. Here's my top five:
1. Yankees-Dodgers
2. Yankees-Cardinals
3. Yankees-Cubs
4. Yankees-Braves
5. Astros-Dodgers
Again, that's just the system. I'll leave my subjective preferences out of it, lest I end up covering a team that I've publicly declared I want to lose.