BOSTON -- The conventional wisdom is that Mookie Betts is having a down year. Yet by the end of the season, he's going to post statistics pretty similar to what he had in 2018, when he was the American League MVP. He'll score more runs this year than last, he already has more walks than last year, and he could have more extra-base hits.
In a sense, Betts has the Boston Red Sox franchise backed into a corner. If the Sox try (again) to sign him, his contract would probably be the highest baseball deal doled out in the Northeast corridor. If they can't sign him -- Betts is eligible for free agency next fall -- or won't, they'd have to consider dealing their best and most popular player, and in any trade, they would probably not be able to replicate his actual value and probably would ignite anger and frustration in their fan base.
Teams generally adhere to what the numbers say, but Betts clearly has emotional leverage over the Red Sox in his contract situation. He isn't the only one. Here are some of the other players who do:
• Marcus Stroman, New York Mets. The Mets built their midseason strategy around acquiring the right-hander, sacrificing future assets to go all-in on trying to win in 2019 and 2020 and selling the idea of how perfect the Long Island product Stroman is for New York. Stroman said in conversation last week that he'd be very open to a multiyear deal and believes he'll be an even better pitcher once his future is settled.
• J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies. A whole lot has gone wrong for the Phillies this year, from rotation and bullpen injuries to the loss of leadoff hitter Andrew McCutchen. But Realmuto has been everything the Phillies thought they were buying when they dealt for him last winter. He has been playing like the majors' best catcher, posting an .830 OPS and gunning down 43 of 84 would-be base-stealers. The 6-foot-6 Zach Eflin says he has had a couple of moments when he has almost been hit by Realmuto throws to second base. "I've heard the ball go by," he said.
The Phillies gave up major assets to get Realmuto, and given the growing expectations of the franchise, there is pressure on the team to execute a long-term deal with the catcher, who is eligible for free agency after 2020. As Teddy KGB said in the movie "Rounders," "Pay that man his money." Ken Rosenthal recently noted that Realmuto is in position to be the second catcher in history with a deal of $100 million-plus, following Buster Posey.
• Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves. The first baseman has two years left on an eight-year, $135 million contract signed in the spring of 2014. Freeman is the leader of the franchise, the heir apparent to Chipper Jones and John Smoltz, and he turns 30 later this week. Braves fans have enjoyed many longstanding relationships with homegrown talents such as Freeman, and there will be pressure on Atlanta to re-sign the four-time All-Star.
• George Springer, Houston Astros. The outfielder is about a week younger than Freeman and turns 30 this winter. Coming off this, the best season of his career, it would make sense for the Astros and Springer to work something out this winter.
News from around the major leagues
Masahiro Tanaka starts for the New York Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball, having turned a corner in his performance after adjusting the grip on his split-finger fastball. Like a lot of pitchers, Tanaka struggled with the changed, lower seams that players have talked about since spring training. Although his velocity was about the same as it had been in recent seasons, his splitter lost an average of two inches' drop from what it did last year, with opponents doing big damage.
In his first years as a professional in Japan, Tanaka used a forkball grip, he recalled in conversation Saturday, with his index and middle finger spread wide around the seams. But at age 21, he shifted to a splitter grip, with the index and middle finger spread less.
As Tanaka looked to make the pitch more functional after the All-Star break, he tinkered with his grip -- and initially went back to something closer to the forkball. "But I still wasn't getting the results I wanted," he said through an interpreter, "with the movement or the way hitters reacted to it."
Tanaka changed the grip again, spreading his fingers a little less than he does with a forkball but a little more than he did with the splitter earlier this year. With Tanaka's modified splitter grip, his hand is anchored to the ball a little more than in the first months, and in his past five starts, Tanaka has a 2.43 ERA and has held opponents to a .588 OPS. "It feels better," he said. "I don't want to go too much into detail, but it does feel better."
• The other day, Jhoulys Chacin -- signed by the Red Sox last week -- compared reliever Darwinzon Hernandez, in an interview with WEEI, to his former teammate Josh Hader. In Chacin's eyes, Hernandez's fastball moves similarly to Hader's, beating hitters at the top of the strike zone. Like Hader, Chacin is averaging about two strikeouts per inning: 54 in 28⅔ innings.
Boston catcher Sandy Leon nodded when he heard what Chacin said. He talked about how special Hernandez's four-seam fastball is in how he can throw it up and away or up and in to right-handed hitters and how special Hernandez is.
"He asks a lot of questions of the other pitchers," Leon said. "He wants to be 'The Guy.'"
• Kole Calhoun was drafted by the Los Angeles Angels almost a decade ago, an eighth-round pick out of Arizona State, and he has thrived in the organization, with eight seasons in the major leagues, 135 home runs and a Gold Glove Award. But his time with the team is probably nearing an end. Calhoun turns 32 in October, and the Angels hold a $14 million option on the right fielder. Mike Trout and Justin Upton, who have manned the other two spots in the outfield, are under contract for years to come, and the organization will look to make room for top prospect Jo Adell, the 20-year-old monster talent who has an .834 OPS across three levels of the minors this year. Calhoun does have value, and the Angels could exercise the option and then trade him, perhaps kicking in some money to offset the salary, or they could decline the option altogether and move on.
• The most difficult managerial decision between now and the start of the postseason might be in the hands of Washington's Dave Martinez. As Max Scherzer has dealt with injury in recent weeks, Stephen Strasburg has been dominant in leading the Nationals' staff, with a 2.96 ERA in his past 12 starts and 98 strikeouts in 76 innings. Left-hander Patrick Corbin has been more than solid in his first year in Washington. Either of those two veterans could be a worthy pick to start the National League wild-card game, which Washington might host.
But Scherzer is one of the best pitchers of his generation, and he bears the sort of personality that engenders confidence. He has pitched OK in a handful of outings since being activated off the injured list -- but certainly not as well as Strasburg.
Whom will Martinez pick: the pitcher who is going the best or the three-time Cy Young Award winner and leader of the staff?
• The Yankees' acquisition cost for Gio Urshela in the summer of 2018: $25,000 in a straight purchase from the Blue Jays.
• Rafael Devers is closing in on 200 hits for the season, and he has accumulated more than 80 extra-base hits. The most recent Red Sox player to achieve the 200/80 hit/extra-base hit benchmarks in a season: Jim Rice in 1978, when the AL MVP compiled 86 extra-base hits among 213 hits.
• A GM said recently that the worst job in baseball is that of hitting coach because an increasing number of hitters use personal coaches, leaving the hitting coaches in a terrible position. When a player does well, the credit goes to the personal coach, and on the other hand, the personal coach is not in the dugout to deal with the inevitable struggles, so the blame for those tends to be aimed at the guy in the dugout, the team hitting coach.
One evaluator said he witnessed this scene in 2019: As a group of hitters took batting practice before a game, three were on the phone FaceTiming with their personal coaches between rounds of their swings.
• Back in the days when Realmuto was with the Miami Marlins, a fellow Oklahoman sought him out -- Hall of Fame catcher Johnny Bench, who asked former teammate Tony Perez to arrange a meeting one year in spring training. Bench grew up about 90 minutes from where Realmuto was raised.
• Club executives have become increasingly wary of players who remain unsigned late in spring training or beyond the start of the regular season because they think those free agents can't ever catch up to their peers -- and sometimes push themselves to the point of injury. Craig Kimbrel signed with the Cubs in June and posted an ERA of 5.68 before landing on the injured list a second time on Friday. He's dealing with inflammation in his elbow. Dallas Keuchel landed with the Braves in June and has pitched successfully, with a 3.72 ERA over 84 ⅔ innings in 14 starts.
Awards watch
With three weeks to go, this is what the top of the major awards ballots would look like:
AL Cy Young Award
1. Justin Verlander, Astros. He leads the league in innings and ERA, and the no-hitter is a nice chit to have on his Cy Young Award résumé. If he wins, this would be his second Cy Young Award -- and the sixth time he has finished in the top three in the voting.
1a. Gerrit Cole, Astros. This probably will come down to which of these teammates pitches better in the next three-and-a-half weeks.
3. Charlie Morton, Tampa Bay Rays. With apologies to the Rangers' Mike Minor.
AL MVP
1. Mike Trout, Angels. He could take the rest of the season off, and he would still be the MVP. Trout has accumulated 8.7 fWAR, the most in the big leagues and almost two wins better than that of the next player.
2. Alex Bregman, Astros.
3. Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox.
NL Cy Young Award
1. Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers. This standing is in serious jeopardy. Because of Ryu's recent slump and his rate of innings, the Dodgers are skipping his next start and might continue to scale back his work as he prepares for the playoffs.
2. Jacob deGrom, Mets. He's second in the NL in strikeouts, fifth in ERA and fifth in innings.
3. Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals. It's incredible that he is still high on category leaderboards, despite missing a lot of the past two months.
This race is increasingly wide open, with Stephen Strasburg, Mike Soroka and perhaps others still in play.
NL MVP
1. Cody Bellinger, Dodgers. He has been the best player on the best team, posting big numbers offensively and defensively.
2. Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers.
3. Anthony Rendon, Nationals.
Baseball Tonight Podcast
Friday: Karl Ravech on the importance of the home-field advantage among the Dodgers, Astros and Yankees; Boog Sciambi plays some roles, projecting his best John Henry, Tony Clark and Aaron Boone; Rena Wang's Bleacher Tweets.
Thursday: Keith Law talks about what should be next in the plans of the Giants, Angels and Padres and the future of Gavin Lux; Sarah Langs on how Hyun-Jin Ryu's slump might alter the NL Cy Young Award landscape; a chat with Twins manager Rocco Baldelli.
Wednesday: Bryce Harper has some cool stories; Dave Schoenfield discusses the Nationals' incredible comeback and how history will remember this group of Cubs players; Paul Hembekides talks about the Phillies' surge; this week's Power 10.
Tuesday: Justin Verlander discusses his no-hitter; Tim Kurkjian on the AL Cy Young Award race and Verlander's career revival; Sarah Langs ranks the Top 10 pitches of MLB relievers; Todd Radom's cap talk and weekly quiz.