The Yankees took Clarke Schmidt in the first round in 2017 after he'd already gone down with Tommy John surgery -- which occurred after South Carolina brought him back too quickly from an injury -- based on his competitiveness and potential for two or possibly three above-average pitches. He barely pitched in 2018 even after his rehab due to an oblique injury but has been healthy and very effective this year, including a strong outing last Wednesday afternoon against New Hampshire that showed why the Yankees were willing to take on that risk.
Schmidt was 91-95 mph Wednesday and missed bats with the fastball and with a power breaking ball at 80-85 that had slider shape in most of that range, with good tilt and, more impressive, that he seemed to command. He showed a changeup at 87-89 that had good action but came in too hard and often looked too much like a BP fastball, giving hitters an advantage. His delivery is easier now than it was before the injury -- his front shoulder stays a little more closed and his arm path from where he separates his hands to the point when he releases the ball is shorter -- although there's still some effort with a hard falloff at release. The delivery does give him some deception and I think he's a half-grade on the changeup away from being a potential No. 4 or even No. 3 starter, depending on his health.
• Tigers prospect Matt Manning threw Sunday afternoon at Harrisburg and wasn't as sharp as I'd seen him before, including an outing almost exactly a year ago in the same stadium. Manning was 90-95 mph, with a single 96 in the fifth inning after a long layoff in the top half of the frame, but had some trouble with fastball location and with the consistency of both his curveball at 76-79 and changeup at 83-86 -- although I'd still call all three pitches above-average on the day. The Tigers have done a tremendous job turning Manning, a high school basketball star whose father, Rich, played in the NBA, from a thrower into a pitcher. Manning now has a delivery that takes advantage of his 6-foot-6 frame with good extension out front and has developed that curveball into a real weapon with tight 11/5 break when he hits it. I still think he can be a No. 2 starter even though this wasn't a great look.
• Derek Hill, the Tigers' first-round pick in 2014, has had a disappointing year overall in his Double-A debut after several years of injuries and poor performances, although he remains an elite defender in center who should at least get time as a backup in the majors. Hill has seen his power surge this year, with 14 homers in 2019 after he hit nine in total from 2014-18, but he has just a .309 OBP thanks to a 7% walk rate, and he's striking out 28% of the time. On Sunday, he drew two walks and struck out once, and he seemed to be actively trying to work the count and get to pitches in the zone he could drive, once swinging wildly at a two-strike slider down and away as he tried to protect (he fouled it off) but otherwise making good decisions. The data say he's not always this patient, but if this is an area of focus, there's at least hope he can be more than an emergency call-up thanks to his defense and harder contact.
• Isaac Paredes had a rougher day at the plate with some bad swings and misses, although that's a rarity for him and he hammered a fastball for a hard single. He looked awful at third base, however, with one throw to first on a routine ground ball that bounced at least three times and was so slow it would have gotten there faster if he'd sent it parcel post.
• Harrisburg reliever Jacob Condra-Bogan was all fastballs but it's an easy 93-95 that he throws for strikes. I'm not sure what he can be when he only throws one pitch, but the right-hander, acquired last summer in a trade for Brian Goodwin, doesn't walk guys and that is a major-league fastball in velocity and effectiveness.
• Seattle outfield prospect Julio Rodriguez appeared on my midseason top 50 after he had no trouble adjusting to low-A pitching this year. I caught his final game for low-A West Virginia, at Delmarva, before Seattle promoted him to high-A Modesto, where he's gone 18 for 33 (not a typo) and hit .545/.571/.788 without the benefit of road games at hitter-friendly Lancaster. Of course, I got an 0 for 3 but did see his swing, which is a classic right-handed power stroke with great hip rotation and easy consistency swing to swing. He has a great frame and it seems obvious he's going to grow into a lot of power to make him an impact bat in right field who gets on base and hits 25+ homers.
• Seattle right-hander Devin Sweet, an undrafted free agent out of North Carolina Central, started the game and was mediocre for the first few innings before finding his changeup in the sixth. Sweet was 91-94 with just average spin, but the pitch plays up when his changeup, 78-82 for me, is working, a pitch he turns over well but was telegraphing early in that outing. By his last inning, it was an above-average pitch and helped the fastball miss more bats. His slider is fringy at best, functional up at 84-85 but flat at 82. I'm not sure if that's a starter package but he dominated low-A and has since bumped up to join Rodriguez in Modesto, which should be a better test of his stuff.
• Jonathan Bowlan has been a huge breakout guy for the Royals this year, as the Royals' second-rounder from last year out of the University of Memphis dominated low-A (a level for which he was probably too advanced) and has continued to pitch well in high-A, with 71 strikeouts and just 10 walks so far for Wilmington in 72 innings. The stuff doesn't match the performance, though, as Bowlan was just 90-94 with many of his pitches flat and a bunch of fringe-average secondary pitches in his breaking ball (which varied from curveball shape at 79-82 to more slider-like at 83-85) and changeup at 84-85. He's huge at 6-foot-6 and a listed weight of 262 pounds, with a clean delivery that keeps him online to the plate, although he might have some more room to stride longer and get more extension. I just didn't see any swing-and-miss pitch here for when he gets to higher levels.
• Blue Rocks outfielder Kyle Isbel has been dismal at the plate since returning from a nearly three-month layoff due to two injuries, hitting .178/.236/.295 since he came back to Wilmington on July 14. As far as I can tell, it's a contact-quality issue: He can put the ball in play, but every time I've seen him do so, it's been very weak contact. Isbel broke his hamate bone while rehabbing an injury to his face, which could certainly explain the low-quality contact; his bat speed is fine, but it's like he's been sapped of all his hand and wrist strength.
• Fellow Wilmington outfielder Brewer Hicklen has been giving me grade 70 or better run times all season, including a sub-4-second time last Tuesday when he beat out an infield single. He does strike out too often to project him as a regular but there's some patience, a little pop, and the kind of speed that can change the game when he's on base, enough that I think he's at least a good fourth outfielder.
• Schmidt faced off against the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, a bad lineup with a lot of fairly famous names in it. First-rounder Logan Warmoth has been a huge disappointment since the Jays took him No. 22 overall out of North Carolina in 2017; against Schmidt, he only made weak contact when he wasn't striking out or just well behind 93-94 mph fastballs. He played centerfield in that game and was fine but not terribly challenged out there. Shortstop Kevin Smith continues to show that his low-A performance last year at age 21 was just fool's good; his approach is awful and he's now at .211/.268/.413 this year, really vulnerable to fastballs up in this game and when I saw him earlier this year. If there's a big leaguer in that lineup, I'd bet on Riley Adams, who strikes out way too often (32% in Double-A this year at age 23) but showed the best approach of the Fisher Cats' hitters and showed he could adjust to breaking stuff. He's also a catcher, so the offensive bar for him to clear is lower.