Houston Astros teammates Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are well positioned in the race to win the American League Cy Young Award, and good luck to the voters who might have to choose between numbers as similar as these:
Verlander: 2.77 ERA, 239 strikeouts, 15-5 won-loss record
Cole: 2.75 ERA, 238 strikeouts, 15-5 W-L
They are at very different stages in their respective careers, with Verlander now well established in Houston and, at age 36, perhaps destined to pitch for the Astros for years to come. Cole turns 29 next month, and is poised to join the exclusive club of starting pitchers who have signed deals for more than $200 million. He'll be a free agent in the fall, seemingly at the peak of his career. ESPN researcher Paul Hembekides dug up the fact that, on Saturday morning, Cole had almost as many strikeouts on pitches thrown at 98 mph with 117 K's as Noah Syndergaard (49), Edwin Diaz (35) and Aroldis Chapman (34) combined.
Manny Machado and Bryce Harper learned firsthand last winter that there is not a huge number of teams lined up to offer record-setting deals, and Cole might have the same experience. The Boston Red Sox have almost $80 million committed to David Price, Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi, so the timing might not be right for them to take a shot at Cole. Cole Hamels' current deal runs out this fall and Jon Lester is signed for at least one more season, so the Chicago Cubs could be involved in the Cole bidding -- but they've already got a lot of other dollars on the books.
But here are three teams on the early watch list in the Cole sweepstakes:
• The Philadelphia Phillies: John Middleton, the leader of the organization, has established a good business rapport with Cole's agent, Scott Boras, who tends to circle back to the same owners and teams (such as the late Mike Ilitch of the Detroit Tigers and Ted Lerner of the Washington Nationals). Jake Arrieta has one more year left on his deal, so there really won't be any future financial impediments on the Phillies' roster if Middleton feels his team needs Cole to keep up with the Atlanta Braves and other aggressive National League East teams.
• The Los Angeles Angels: Now that Mike Trout's future is settled, the franchise can go about the business of trying to figure out the best way to allocate remaining dollars -- and it's possible that Cole's annual salary, likely north of the $35 million range, will be too much.
But it's hard to imagine any free agent who could be a more perfect fit, theoretically, for what the Angels really need to get back to the postseason. Landing an established ace will be incredibly tempting for a team that has struggled for rotation stability because of injuries, and the addition of Cole would mean taking him away from the Astros.
If Cole wants to play closer to home, the Angels could be extremely attractive -- he was born about 20 minutes from Angels Stadium, in Newport Beach, and attended high school in the shadow of Trout's home park, less than five miles away.
The Angels owe Albert Pujols $59 million over the next two seasons, and about $78 million to Justin Upton through 2022, but beyond that, Trout is their only long-term contractual obligation.
• The New York Yankees: Cole is the great white whale of Brian Cashman's stewardship of the Yankees. New York drafted Cole as a high school senior, but he chose college over pro ball. Two winters ago, the Yankees tried to acquire Cole from the Pirates, but wouldn't surrender Miguel Andujar and Cole went to the Astros.
With Luis Severino out this season, the Yankees have had a glaring need for a front-of-the-rotation type of starter, and if the Yankees outbid the field for Cole, he would step right into the No. 1 spot. The Yankees have some payroll flexibility developing over the next couple of years -- CC Sabathia is retiring after this season, Masahiro Tanaka has one year left on the seven-year, $155 million contract he signed before the 2014 season, and J.A. Happ's deal could expire after next season, as well.
It might be that the same dynamic will be in place for the Yankees' conversation with Cole, if it happens, as it was when they signed Sabathia. At that time, the left-hander really wanted to return to his home state of California, and the Angels offered $100 million. Sabathia was wary of New York, and his agent, Brian Peters, informed the Yankees that they'd basically have to bid him away from California -- and then the Steinbrenner family offered him a record-setting $161 million contract. The Yankees might have the same kind of financial challenge if they want Cole.
An X factor in all of this is that Boras' negotiations with his best free agents have often carried on into late January or February, and Cashman's history is that he doesn't like to wait for resolution. Last winter, he moved aggressively on James Paxton to ensure rotation help, rather than wait to see what was going to happen with Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel and other starting pitcher options.
News from around the major leagues
On the eve of the 2018 season, the hypercompetitive Clayton Kershaw acknowledged he didn't like having to make adjustments that even the best pitchers must make as they lose velocity -- pitching to both sides of the plate, changing speeds, becoming less predictable in sequencing. For the first decade of his career, Kershaw had attacked and bullied hitters relentlessly, beating them with inside fastballs.
But he has made the transition with tremendous success, throwing more sliders and curveballs in situations when, in the past, he likely would've tossed fastballs. The rate at which hitters are chasing pitches out of the strike zone against Kershaw is one of the highest in his career, according to the stats sent along by researcher Sarah Langs. Kershaw's 33.7% chase rate this season is the third-highest of his career, behind just 2016 (34.0%) and his career best in 2014 (35.6%).
Kershaw's sequencing has changed dramatically, as he's throwing far fewer fastballs when behind in the count. His year-to-year percentage of fastballs when behind in the count:
2011: 85.5%
2012: 81.4%
2013: 75.0%
2014: 63.6%
2015: 63.5%
2016: 61.6%
2017: 51.1%
2018: 40.4%
2019: 38.2%
Kershaw said Saturday that there has never been a specific discussion about making this adjustment in recent seasons.
"No conversations," Kershaw said. "I don't look at that stuff. I just do what I have to do to get guys out. Depends on the hitter. You do your work before, and try to figure out what pitches are best, what sequences are best. Obviously, at the end of the day, you just have to go and compete.
"Adapt or die, right?"
• Kershaw, like many others around the game, is not a fan of the white-and-black uniform color schemes used this weekend. "Brutal," he said. "Absolutely brutal."
He has gone so far as to request that he be allowed to wear the usual blue Dodgers cap for his start on Sunday night. He was turned down.
"The white is fine, but I think just it's funny that Dodgers-Yankees -- other than the Cubs, Red Sox, maybe the two most historic franchises -- playing each other, which rarely happens, and in Dodger Stadium, which rarely happens, and you can't see the home whites and the Yankee gray," Kershaw said. "And then you're wearing the black hats as a pitcher. I think it's terrible. I've never been one for change -- I like the same stuff. I'm not a fan. I'd rather just have 'Kershaw' on the back [of the jersey] and go."
• Aaron Judge has changed as a hitter over the past three years, generating a significantly lower rate of fly balls:
2016: 51.2%
2017: 43.2%
2018: 35.0%
2019: 27.2%
It probably should go without saying that for a power hitter, this is not an ideal trend, but he has homers in three of his past five games.
Baseball Tonight podcast
Friday: The Astros' George Springer talks about the conversation that altered his perspective on failure; Karl Ravech on the Little League World Series, and the future of Gerrit Cole; Rena's Bleacher Tweets for the week.
Thursday: Keith Law on the Mets' road to the postseason, the Dodgers' player development, and the emergence of Lucas Giolito; Sarah Langs and The Numbers Game; author and Boston Globe reporter Alex Speier on his new book, including surprising anecdotes of veteran ostracism that Mookie Betts waded through at the outset of his career.
Wednesday: Bleacher Report's Scott Miller discusses the evolution of Clayton Kershaw, and the future of Fernando Tatis Jr.; Paul Hembekides goes into the numbers; and this week's Power 10.
Tuesday: Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe discusses the future of Dave Dombrowski, head of baseball ops for the Red Sox, and the future of Betts; David Schoenfield on the Braves' acquisition of Billy Hamilton, and Carlos Correa; Sarah Langs and The Numbers Game.
Monday: Todd Radom's weekly quiz and cap talk; Tim Kurkjian discusses Brian Snitker's decision to pull Ronald Acuna Jr.; and Anthony Rizzo on the Little League Classic.