When Jake Arrieta joined the Philadelphia Phillies, he arrived on a private plane in the middle of spring training, posing on the tarmac for pictures after landing as the would-be savior for a pitching staff badly in need of a veteran anchor. At the time, it seemed as if he had joined a growing power.
The flight he took Sunday evening must've felt very different, with an impending decision looming over him -- his best interests perhaps diverging from those of the Phillies.
Arrieta has pitched with a bone spur in his elbow this summer, with sporadic effectiveness, and on Sunday in San Francisco, the right-hander had his worst outing of the year: seven hits, a walk and five runs allowed in three innings and just 66 pitches. The Phillies have operated under the assumption that Arrieta would pitch through the rest of this regular season before having the arthroscopic procedure he will eventually need, but after the short start against the Giants, Arrieta didn't fully commit either way when reporters asked about his plans.
His command has suffered. His stuff is diminished, because the spur has affected his ability to throw a breaking ball. His performance has waned, and his elbow hurts, as he explained Sunday evening. "I don't necessarily want to make a decision right now," he said. "We'll have the off-day Monday and maybe have a conversation Tuesday."
The Phillies flew home to face the Chicago Cubs in a series that begins tonight, and Arrieta has had time to crystallize his thoughts. Over his past 13 starts, he has a 5.76 ERA, with 84 hits and 25 walks allowed in 65⅔ innings. He has not pitched well, but the Phillies' rotation has been thin, and Arrieta at least offers the hope of some decent starts -- he's allowed three runs or fewer in six of those 13 starts, including solid performances last month against the Nationals and Pirates.
Part of the conversation between Arrieta and the Phillies will be about practicality. The Phillies are 60-58 and two games out in the NL wild-card race, and according to Fangraphs, their chances to make the playoffs stand at about 5.8% -- although the Mets have reminded everyone how quickly those odds can change.
If Arrieta's spur treatment and rehab are typical, he could have the procedure at the end of the season and still have time to be ready for the start of next season.
But if he has the surgery now, when the Phillies are not currently projected to be part of the playoff field, he would have more time to prepare for 2020 -- a year that might serve as a platform for his next round of free agency. Or, it might not. His contractual situation is complicated.
Under the terms of his current contract, Arrieta was guaranteed $75 million over three seasons: $30 million for 2018, $25 million for 2019 and $20 million for 2020. He could opt out of his deal following this season, and if he did that, the Phillies would have the option of guaranteeing two option years at $20 million annually for 2021 and 2022 -- to effectively give him a new three-year, $60 million deal going into 2020.
Some industry sources believe Arrieta's best play at this stage is to return to the Phillies for the final year of his contract in 2020 for $20 million. "If he [opts out] and goes into free agency, he'll be coming off surgery and a down year," said one front-office type in recent weeks. "He's probably not going to get that [$20 million] salary."
The same uncertainty that would factor in for other teams would presumably weigh on the Phillies as well, reducing the chances they would give him that three-year, $60 million deal. Arrieta turns 34 next spring, and in recent winters, free agents in that age range haven't fared as well as they once did.
Last winter, J.A. Happ -- entering his age-36 season -- got a two-year, $34 million deal from the Yankees, with a $17 million vesting option for 2021. The 31-year-old Dallas Keuchel, who, like Arrieta, is represented by Scott Boras, waited into June before taking a prorated one-year, $20 million deal with the Braves, and Keuchel will be a free agent again this fall.
Everyone in the industry is well aware that Arrieta has been pitching with the spur, but mitigating factors are hidden underneath bottom-line numbers in player evaluations in this era, and what's happening in 2019 might hurt his résumé in the open market. Arrieta with the Phillies: 4.26 ERA in 55 starts, 248 strikeouts, 108 walks and 42 homers given up in 308⅓ innings. According to Fangraphs, his WAR among pitchers with 250 or more innings in 2018-2019 ranks 58th of 67, and his ERA is 53rd of 67.
Arrieta's best chance for another significant payday would be to have a bounce-back season in 2020, and for him, the best chance of that happening might be to have surgery sooner rather than later.
On the other hand, the Phillies' chances for reaching the postseason for the first time since 2011 could be augmented if Arrieta defers the elbow procedure and just grinds through the rest of this season.
That's a lot to think about on a cross-country flight.