The Houston Astros have made yet another huge trade for a starter, acquiring Zack Greinke from the Arizona Diamondbacks for a package of four prospects, improving their World Series odds while the D-backs clear some payroll and boost an already-strong farm system.
Greinke has pitched for the past two seasons with reduced velocity, but he has made it work because his command and control are so good, and because he has always been a master at adding and subtracting velocity to keep hitters off balance. There's some minor cause for concern in the increased contact rates he's allowing, although he has managed to minimize the damage he has allowed on contact this year and will be going from one analytically focused coaching staff to another. His skill set seems like one that will allow him to continue to be effective even as he gets older and loses more velocity with age. He's under contract for two more years, which helps the Astros fill Gerrit Cole's slot if he leaves as a free agent after the season, and can help if Forrest Whitley isn't ready next year after a disastrous, injury-plagued 2019.
The Diamondbacks got four players coming back, although I'm slightly surprised Kyle Tucker wasn't among them, as the Astros seem to have decided to go in a different direction for their outfield. Arizona gets Houston's two best pitching prospects below Whitley in right-handlers J.B. Bukauskas and Corbin Martin. Bukauskas is a former first-round pick who is consistently up to 97-98 with a wipeout slider, though he has a high-effort delivery that doesn't use his lower half well, and he might be a power reliever rather than a starter. Martin looked great in his MLB debut this year but blew out his elbow shortly afterward, requiring Tommy John surgery. He could be a fourth starter or better, depending on how he recovers from the operation.
Mark Teixeira and Tim Kurkjian are confident that with the Astros trading for Zack Greinke, they strongly increased their chances of winning a second World Series in three years.
Arizona also gets first baseman/designated hitter Seth Beer, the Astros' first-round pick from 2018, a very patient hitter with power and no clear position. He has had some trouble with lefties in a limited sample this year, and that's something to watch going forward. Josh Rojas is the sleeper in the deal, a high-contact hitter with plus speed and good instincts at bat and on the bases; he can play multiple positions, probably stretched as a regular at shortstop but ideal as a multiposition guy who can play regularly. Of course, the best part of the deal for the Diamondbacks is getting out from Greinke's onerous contract, but they got two quality pitching prospects, a utility infielder (or better) who can play in the majors right now, and a patient power hitter with some question marks about his ceiling. The Astros, meanwhile, traded four prospects, three of whom were not going to help the MLB club this year or next, between Martin's injury, Beer's lack of a position, and players blocking Rojas and Beer all over the place. Only Bukauskas might have helped them in 2020, and the rotation spot that might have gone to him at some point goes to Greinke.
Houston wasn't done, adding Aaron Sanchez and Joe Biagini from the Blue Jays for Derek Fisher. Sanchez needed a change of scenery a while ago, and his sinker has been completely ineffective for him as a starter this season. He could go right into the Astros' bullpen while they try to rework his delivery and get him back to the sinker/curveball guy he was a few years ago, when he looked like he had No. 2 starter potential or more; he shortened his stride not long after he reached full-season ball and has struggled to find consistent mechanics since then. He has also dealt with injury and blister issues. They could use him in relief now, as he wasn't effective enough as a starter to join their rotation, and try to work him back into a starter role in the winter. Biagini is a competent middle reliever without the upside of Sanchez but who helps the Astros now.
Fisher was lapped by other outfield prospects in the Astros' system, but could still end up a regular or a quality fourth outfielder for the Jays. He has huge power and plus speed, with a long swing and some pitch recognition issues that at least improved a little this year after two stints in 2017-18 with huge strikeout rates. Despite the speed, he's a poor defensive outfielder -- it's confusing, but his reads on balls have never been good -- and may just have to play left, but he has 25-homer/25-steal upside if he makes enough contact to get to it. It's a shame that Sanchez never reached his potential for the Blue Jays, but at this point his trade value was probably pretty low, and the Jays at least got a potential regular and likely fourth outfielder in return.