Flash back to the middle of winter and you'll find the St. Louis Blues well out of the NHL playoff picture and sitting on some long odds -- 250-1, to be exact -- to win the Stanley Cup. What happened next is the stuff betting dreams are made of as St. Louis heated up enough to reach the playoffs, advanced through the postseason and outlasted the Boston Bruins to win the franchise's first title. And those who were bold -- or lucky -- enough to bet on the Blues were rewarded in a major way.
So as we hit the halfway point of the major league season, we started wondering if there could be an MLB equivalent of hockey's unlikely champions -- and who that team could be. To adjust for the reality that the NHL playoffs and MLB playoffs are not equals and an out-of-nowhere baseball champion is even more unlikely, we stretched the parameters from looking for another 250-1 team to simply a team with long odds outside the playoff picture and asked our MLB and gambling experts who they thought could be this year's MLB version of the Blues and why. Here is what they said:
Alden Gonzalez: The Angels. Their lineup features Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Andrelton Simmons, Justin Upton and Albert Pujols. Their bullpen has been solid. And the AL wild card is wide open. The Angels just need some help in their rotation, which, admittedly, is a lot easier said than done.
David Schoenfield: If I found $5 in a pair of jeans I haven't worn in three years, I guess I'd put it on the Angels (75-1 odds). But $10? I'd probably just go have lunch at Chipotle. OK, the Angels have a few positives to consider. They just got Upton back and Simmons will be back soon and add those two to Mike Trout, Tommy La Stella and Ohtani and this lineup suddenly looks pretty good.
Obviously, the rotation has to figure things out -- what would theirs look like if Billy Eppler had done better on the free agent market than Matt Harvey (7.50 ERA) and Trevor Cahill (7.18) -- but the Rays have faded a bit of late, and the Red Sox haven't put it all together, so now both wild cards appear in play.
Dan Mullen: As I type this, the Oakland A's, who have 60-1 odds, are in third place in the AL West with a 41-38 record. A year ago at this time, the Oakland A's were in third place in the AL West with a 41-38 record ... and ended up with 97 wins and a spot in the postseason. So if I'm going to bet on something, why not bet on a front office that has a long history of pulling off remarkable runs against all odds to doing what it did as recently as a season ago -- and this time getting hot in the postseason?
Sam Miller: I'd much rather bet on an NL team. It looks like it'll take at least 90 wins to make the playoffs in the AL, but could take only 85 or so in the NL; and, once the playoffs start, the AL's wild-card team could be facing more than 300 regular season wins even before reaching the World Series. I wouldn't quite take the Padres at 150-to-1, but there's some real hope: They're deep, they're young, they've got trade pieces and players to call up still, and in this NL they're two good weeks from leading the wild-card chase. After that, it's at least possible to imagine a path with only one insurmountable obstacle (the Dodgers) in the way. For the Angels, or the White Sox, or any other AL surprise, there could be four such obstacles.
Jesse Rogers: Without a doubt, the Cincinnati Reds (50-1) have to be included in this discussion. They have been the "unluckiest" team in baseball to this point as their Pythagorean W-L record has them a half-game out of first place going into the week. Those things usually even out over the course of the season. Just look at the Seattle Mariners last season. Dubbed the luckiest team in the first half, they fell apart after the All-Star break. And the Reds have the second-lowest ERA in the NL, which tells you everything you need to know about their chances. Pitching wins championships, right?
Doug Kezirian: Let's be clear: The Blues' run was unprecedented and historic. It is basically impossible to find a similar outcome within the same calendar year. However, expanding the search a bit, one could make a case for a few teams.
Arizona catches my eye at 75-1 odds. I prefer a path through the National League. The Dodgers have dominated, but I think they could be a more manageable opponent than the Yankees or Astros would be on the AL side of the playoffs. Clayton Kershaw is not the same and Hyun-Jin Ryu should come back to earth. Plus, they will not really play a meaningful game the final two months of the regular season, and that may pose problems once the playoffs arrive.
The Diamondbacks have only played .500 ball but own a run differential of plus-41, which is fifth-best in the N.L. I believe starters Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray are capable of having the stars align for a postseason run. The offense is pretty much full of random dudes and does not overwhelm you. However, they do have the highest stolen base percentage in all of baseball. Couple that with the second-highest fielding percentage, and Arizona might have the recipe for a "small ball" playoff run.