Memorial Day is a good point to look back on the first part of the Major League Baseball season. With a big enough sample size, we can begin to determine if what we've seen is a fluke ... or a real trend.
With a multitude of bets available before the season, Doug Kezirian and Preston Johnson look back at what we've learned so far and what it means going forward from a betting perspective.
Kezirian: Entering the season, my favorite futures bet was the Baltimore Orioles under 59.5 wins (closed 57.5). Baltimore would have to finish with a winning percentage of .370 for me to lose. The O's currently sit at .302 (16-37), on pace for 48.9 wins.
Johnson How worried were you after they won their opening series against the Yankees? What about when they were 4-1 a few days later?
Kezirian: I was definitely stressing. Aside from my own heavy bet, I hate making strong predictions on a national platform and being wrong -- even incredibly wrong. I also heard solid rationale on the over from an oddsmaker I truly respect: ridding themselves of veterans would translate to a more upbeat clubhouse. Plus, the overall nature of baseball lends itself to unpredictable wins over a large sample size. However, I saw no overwhelming reason they could improve 13 wins over their 2018 finish of 47-115. Baltimore's pitching regressed and the Orioles lost manager Buck Showalter. The full rebuild is on, and I am happy with my position so far -- and thoroughly enjoy blown leads in the ninth, like Sunday's game. However, the schedule has not done them any favors. They've already faced the Yankees 12 times. They're bad, but all it takes is a short win streak to get back on track.
Johnson Speaking of the Yankees, would you ever have anticipated they would be sitting atop the AL East at 32-17 in late May given all of their injuries?
Kezirian: Not at all. I did pick them to win the division and discussed it on Daily Wager. I anticipated some regression with the Red Sox. Chris Sale's velocity was a minor concern, and the bullpen was destined for mediocrity. Plus, when everything goes right in a season (like it did last year for Boston), it is virtually impossible to duplicate all of it. And we are seeing some of that already. Buster Olney said the Rays were more than frisky, and that turned out to be right. I just thought the Yankees were the play, but of course I did not anticipate their weathering all of these injuries.
Johnson: I bet them to win the World Series at +700 a couple of days ago. Their 32-17 record isn't too fluky. They still lead the AL East in run differential despite all of these injuries, and Dellin Betances, Didi Gregorius, Ben Heller, Jordan Montgomery, James Paxton, CC Sabathia, Luis Severino, Giancarlo Stanton and Troy Tulowitzki are all expected to make returns by the All-Star break (mid-July).
Kezirian: I like that play. Baseball has recently become more like the NBA in its predictability. The Astros are loaded but Gerrit Cole has shown occasional vulnerability and Justin Verlander figures to show his age at some point, although he has allowed more than one run in only one of his past eight starts. The Astros lineup is scary good, but they are also the favorite. I think the Astros or Yankees represent the AL in the World Series.
Johnson Let's talk MVP race. I know you had some thoughts on betting Mike Trout before the season.
Kezirian: I was adamant that no one should wager on Trout at even money to win the American League MVP. He opened 3-1 and that market crashed with some big bets backing the two-time MVP before the season started. Given injuries, the Angels' likely mediocre season and other candidates, it just seemed foolish to make that kind of wager. After all, Christian Yelich came out of nowhere last season to win his award. As for 2019, here we are, with one-quarter of the season in the books, and Trout is posting solid numbers (.289 BA, 11 HR, 28 RBIs). Joey Gallo and George Springer are likely ahead of Trout in the race.
Johnson Any thoughts on Springer heading to the IL now with a hamstring injury? Is it now or never for Trout before he becomes a considerable favorite? Joey Gallo can be had at +5,000 right now at William Hill.
Kezirian: I saw the Gallo play and almost made that bet. The problem with that is he needs to be overwhelmingly great, since the Rangers likely will not compete for the division. Trout was able to pull that off in 2016, when the Angels finished with 74 wins in fourth place. I don't think Gallo is regarded that way. I still wouldn't bet Trout right now, though. To me, it's like a blackjack hand and hitting on 15 against a 4. Even if you pull a 6, it's still not the right call. There are just too many variables at this juncture for such a small return (1-to-1 payout).
Kezirian: However, as you know, I am not opposed to laying lumber. Why not bet the Astros at -2,000 to win the AL West? Last year, they withstood Oakland's torrid second half and 97-win finish. In 2017, they won the division by 21 games. Houston should cruise, and -2,000 actually seems like value, but you need a decent bankroll to make it worth the investment. Otherwise, you can find other bets for that drink ticket.
Johnson I don't think anybody could make a sound argument for any team in the AL West catching the Astros. With Jose Altuve set to make a few Triple-A rehab starts this week and rejoin Houston if all goes well in those, the Astros are only going to keep extending their division lead. I project them to win the AL West by 20 games, on average. However, I only project them to win the division 94.2 percent of the time. Long-term laying -2,000 wouldn't be a profitable play versus my projections, but it's unlikely it would ever come back to haunt you anyway. I'd prefer to lay -110 on the Yankees to win the AL East, which is correlated to my World Series future bet. I project New York to win the division 57.0 percent of the time at this point in the season.
Kezirian: What about the National League Rookie of the Year? Chris Paddack and Mike Soroka are right there (each 3-1) but Pete Alonso plays in New York and will not have his innings monitored.
Johnson I would feel more comfortable taking Paddack and Soroka as a tandem over Alonso. The conundrum is that the winner between those two pitchers may ultimately be which of their teams makes the playoffs. The Braves currently have a one-game lead over the Padres for an NL wild-card spot. At this point in the race I would be passing, but my heart is with Paddack after I grabbed his future before the season. So if you want to root along with me the rest of the way, he can still be had at +300 and has as good a shot as the other rookies in contention.