St. LOUIS -- Phillies owner John Middleton flew cross-country for face-to-face meetings to chase the player he wanted, and then committed $330 million in lure Bryce Harper in his effort to make the Phillies relevant in October again. You can safely say Middleton's team will be a highly motivated buyer before the July 31 trade deadline.
The Indians will work from a very different place, in measured pursuit of an October playoff berth. They've made the postseason each of the past three years, and as of this morning, they're nine games out of first place in the AL Central, a long shot to catch the Minnesota Twins -- and through the second half, Cleveland will have to manage some pressing roster and budget issues.
For the Phillies and Indians and many other teams, a wild-card berth might be the most likely avenue for reaching the playoffs, given the separation that has already developed in five of the six division races. But each team has its own distinct set of challenges and catalysts that will shape their actions leading up to the trade deadline.
Philadelphia Phillies
Current chances for making the playoffs, per FanGraphs: 22.7 percent
A playoff berth would mean some measure of vindication, for a front office that has worked on a long, slow rebuild, and for Middleton, who spent big dollars to upgrade the lineup, adding Harper, Andrew McCutchen, David Robertson and Jake Arrieta. It has been far from a seamless process for the Phillies, but the team hasn't reached the postseason since 2011, and for a big-market team like Philadelphia, that feels like a century. Rival executives expect the Phillies to tinker extensively.
Texas Rangers
Playoff chances, per FanGraphs: 2.6 percent
Texas will move into its new ballpark next season, so the team's surprising improvement this year should create some buzz about them at just the right time. And after the Astros' recent losing streak, the Rangers have pulled to within 6.5 games of first place. All of this puts Texas in a better position to maintain a high asking price on some of its tradable assets -- like left-hander Mike Minor -- through July, and could nudge the team into adding a few modest pieces before the deadline. A playoff berth -- or heck, even a late-season run -- could glean significant benefits for Texas.
Oakland Athletics
Playoff chances, per FanGraphs: 9.4 percent
The suspension of Frankie Montas is a tremendous body blow, but Oakland will do what the team has usually done (with the notable exception of the 2014 trades for Jeff Samardzija and Jon Lester) in the days and weeks leading up to the trade deadline. The Athletics will likely assess all buy and sell opportunities in their ongoing effort to maximize value within their modest budget. It's hard to imagine them spending big, given the preeminence of the Astros and given that a playoff berth wouldn't necessarily move the needle significantly for them.
Cincinnati Reds
Playoff chances, per FanGraphs: 11.4 percent
They've played well in the past week, winning six of seven games, spurred by rookie Nick Senzel and the team's excellent rotation. The Reds last made the playoffs in 2013, as a wild-card entrant, and lost to the Pirates, and since then they've been going through a long, slow overhaul. Over the winter, however, Cincinnati signaled its intention to make a push this year, through the additions of Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood and Matt Kemp (who has since been dumped). The Reds' offense has been surprisingly inconsistent, ranking 23rd in runs, and it would not be surprising if Cincinnati added a veteran hitter before the deadline. Scooter Gennett will be back soon and that should help, and the Reds need another typically strong second half from Joey Votto, who currently has a .735 OPS.
New York Mets
Playoff chances, per FanGraphs: 16 percent
The Mets bet a whole lot of resources on 2019, in dollars and prospect value, so they'll continue to play out their hand. And while the Braves appear to be poised to run away in the NL East, a wild-card berth would be especially meaningful to new GM Brodie Van Wagenen and the ownership. An appearance in the postseason, even in a short-lived wild-card appearance, would represent some justification for how the team went all-in for 2019 and 2020.
So it would seem possible that the Mets could have two rounds of action over the next five weeks -- some moves, in addition to the coaching changes, to improve the current team. If the Mets gain ground in the wild-card race before July 31, they could be buyers, and if they collapse, they should at least consider a sell-off, of the likes of Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard and others.
Washington Nationals
Playoff chances, per FanGraphs: 50.9 percent
Even before Saturday's devastating loss to the Braves, clubhouse veterans were frustrated by the failures of the bullpen. But the Nationals have been trending in the right direction, pushed by starting pitching so potent that it probably inflates FanGraphs' projection for the Washington playoff odds. The Nationals are just three games behind in the chase for the NL's second wild card, a margin theoretically surmountable for a rotation headed by Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin. Washington might view a wild-card berth with more hope than most teams, because of the presence of Scherzer, who could be lined up to make that start.
But last year's experience may have chastened ownership and the front office. The Nationals waited and waited for the team to play more consistently, clinging to Bryce Harper through the trade deadline, only to see him walk away in free agency with little return. Now they have the position player who would be most coveted in the market, in Rendon, and if they're drifting in late July, they could be more inclined to sell than they were in 2018.
Cleveland Indians
Playoff chances, per FanGraphs: 60.2 percent
Cleveland continues to try out different outfield combinations, dumping Leonys Martin on Saturday and moving Oscar Mercado into center field. Slugger Bobby Bradley has just been called up from the minors after hitting 17 doubles and 24 homers; he could play a corner spot, and push the Indians' outfield production.
But the Indians will continue to be open-minded about offers for their veteran pitchers, because Trevor Bauer will be arbitration-eligible for one more season, in 2020, before reaching free agency. Bauer's value is at its peak right now, because he can impact two pennant races and postseasons for any acquiring team. If the Indians wait until the winter, any acquiring team would have him for only one season. The Indians' front office seems very unlikely to swap major assets in an effort to augment the team's wild-card chances.
Boston Red Sox
Playoff chances, per FanGraphs: 68.3 percent
Let's face it -- if the Red Sox don't make the playoffs this year, the team's leadership would be mostly inoculated from serious criticism because of the aggressive spending it executed in winning the 2018 World Series. But if Boston's play continues to improve, there will be increased temptation to add bullpen help before July 31, to augment the team's chances to become the first team to win back-to-back titles since the 1998-2000 Yankees.
And the uncertainty beyond this year should weigh into the front office's choices this summer. J.D. Martinez can opt out of his contract after this season, and his teammates aren't sure he'll be back. Mookie Betts will move one year closer to a possible departure as a free agent, and so will Jackie Bradley, Jr.
With a relatively thin farm system, the Red Sox aren't necessarily in the best position to bid for the best available relievers in the trade market, like the Giants' Will Smith. But evaluators expect there will be a lot of relievers available in the last days of July, and the Red Sox could grab a couple who could help a heavily used bullpen.
News from around the major leagues
Albert Pujols will play in St. Louis for the final time tonight (in all likelihood) on Sunday Night Baseball. There will be one last standing ovation in the late innings, after earlier ovations, all ushered by Yadier Molina, who has been the perfect ambassador this weekend.
If Pujols had returned to St. Louis the year after he signed with the Angels as a free agent, the response probably would have been different than it has been in 2019; he probably would have been booed. But almost eight years have passed since Pujols and the Cardinals separated, and with Pujols now nearing the end of a Hall of Fame career, Molina ensured that the relationship between Pujols and St. Louis will continue forever. After attending Pujols' press conference on Friday before the first game of the series, Molina walked up in front of home plate before Pujols' first plate appearance, leading by example, effectively announcing to the crowd that as far as he was concerned, this was a player who has earned respect and reverence for all that he has done for the Cardinals and for St. Louis.
Molina continued to do this before each of Pujols' at-bats on Friday, and through Saturday's game, even in the ninth inning of a game St. Louis led 4-2. Molina is known as an intense competitor, someone who prepares diligently and is extremely serious about his work, but through his actions, he has fostered grace. Decades from now, nobody will remember who won the games this weekend, but everybody will remember the response of the Cardinals' fans, and Pujols' outward joy and appreciation, certain to linger when he makes his induction speech at Cooperstown.
What has happened here this weekend will become part of Molina's legacy as well, from the shared hug before the first plate appearance, to the dirt he good-naturedly threw on Pujols as he crossed home plate, to whatever Molina does tonight to honor his friend.
• Miles Mikolas starts for the Cardinals tonight, against the Angels' Tyler Skaggs, and he's coming off a strong outing in which Mikolas decided to focus on keeping the ball down. To that end, he locked in on lower targets -- on below the catcher's glove, sometimes between the catcher's feet. What resulted was one of Mikolas' best outings of his season, and the highest ground ball percentage he's had in any of his 2019 starts, at 68.4 percent. Mikolas had four strikeouts and no walks, and so the Marlins' hitters mostly whiffed or pounded the ball into the ground, with the right-hander working quickly; his average of just 22.4 seconds between pitches is the eighth-fastest in the majors. Mikolas and some of the other Cardinals starting pitchers have an informal competition about who can generate the most games that last under three hours.
In a conversation in the Cardinals dugout Saturday, Mikolas talked about this rapid-fire approach, which seems to appeal to the baseball fan in him. "Maybe it would lead to more exciting games and more offense if hitters just got in there (the batter's box) and had to react," he said, "and pitchers had to pitch quick, and (think) on your feet. More action, more exciting."
"What's exciting to the fans -- a diving play by the shortstop, (Kolten) Wong making an incredible play, or guys throwing 100 and hitters walking back to the dugout all the time? I want to see (Harrison) Bader dive, or Wong make a backhand double play."
A reporter mentioned the old line from "Bull Durham": "Ground balls are more democratic."
And without missing a beat, Mikolas responded, "Strikeouts are fascist."
• Mikolas doesn't view himself as a big numbers guy, in an era when players are increasingly assessing themselves by the numbers almost pitch to pitch, and at-bat to at-bat. He's a throwback. When asked about his favorite stat Saturday, he said, "I like Wins. My job as a starting pitcher I feel like is to get outs and hold the other team to as few runs as possible."
• The concerns about Madison Bumgarner's recent results are real among the contenders, and the interest in him as a trade target is modest at this stage. Among all starting pitchers in baseball, Bumgarner has allowed the highest rate of hard-hit balls per FanGraphs, at 47 percent and he is trending in the wrong direction, surrendering hard-hit rates of 56 percent in each of his last three starts.
"For the way he's been pitching lately," said one evaluator, "you'd look at him as being a No. 3 type starter on a contender. He takes the ball and he'll give you innings, and maybe the team that takes him on will have something (information) that helps him."
The Giants had hoped to get a big haul for Bumgarner in a trade, with at least one elite prospect, but at this stage, a more realistic expectation might be a package closer to what the Rangers got for Yu Darvish a couple of years ago. San Francisco could get better return for its deep stock of available relievers -- Will Smith, Tony Watson, Sam Dyson and Reyes Moronta. Smith has allowed just seven walks and racked up 47 strikeouts in 31⅓ innings, with a 2.01 ERA, and would be attractive to a wide range of contenders because he can fill any spot in a bullpen, from closer to mid-inning setup man to matchup master: Left-handed hitters are 5-for-29 with 15 strikeouts and one extra-base hit against Smith.
Moronta interests teams because of his performance, the 43 strikeouts in 31⅔ innings, but also because he's cheap, making close to minimum wage, and would come with lots of years of team control -- he has four years of team control remaining after this season.
• There is already some speculation among executives that the Rangers could be pursue Anthony Rendon in free agency this winter, as a lineup anchor and as a draw in its new park.
Baseball Tonight podcast
Friday: Rays outfielder Austin Meadows, about having more All-Star votes than Mookie Betts or Aaron Judge, and what he learned when Tampa Bay acquired him from Pittsburgh.
Thursday: Xander Bogaerts on how he learned not be so hard on himself; Hunter Pence on his remarkable 2019 resurgence; Keith Law about Max Scherzer's toughness, and whether Scherzer might be traded; Sarah Langs and The Numbers Game.
Wednesday: Karl Ravech on the emergence of Eloy Jimenez and the strange social media post by the umpires union; Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch on what's gone wrong with Cardinals' trades, and what St. Louis might do next; Paul Hembekides brings some numbers.
Tuesday: Yankees GM Brian Cashman on his team's revamped lineup and the pitching market; Dave Schoenfield discusses Manny Machado's suspension and the Mets' struggles; Sarah Langs and The Numbers Game.
Monday: Tim Kurkjian on the Edwin Encarnacion trade, and Hyun-Jin Ryu's dominance; a conversation with Hall of Fame inductee Edgar Martinez; Todd Radom with cap talk and the weekly quiz.