The Los Angeles Dodgers have spent the past two months steamrollering just about everything in their path. Ever since a six-game losing streak leveled their record at 8-8, they've gone 40-16 for an MLB-best .714 winning percentage while outscoring their opponents by 95 runs. Part of that has been outstanding work from a rotation led by Cy Young hopeful Hyun-Jin Ryu, and while their bullpen has been shaky, their lineup has largely papered over its mistakes by pummeling opponents. The team's 5.18 runs per game ranks fourth in the league, but adjusted for ballpark, their 113 wRC+ is first, and they also have the Senior Circuit's strongest defense, whether measured by UZR, DRS or defensive efficiency.
While it's not easy to measure, defense counts. For this exercise, I'm using FanGraphs' version of WAR to estimate each team's offensive and defensive production to date (the latter using UZR) and to forecast its work going forward. For the latter aspect, I'm relying upon FanGraphs' Depth Charts projections, which use as its inputs the average of two excellent projection systems (Steamer and ZiPS) and manually applied estimates of playing time for the remainder of the season.
I've divided the 30 teams into six not-necessarily-equally-sized tiers based upon those combined numbers and gaps in the rankings. For example, the top three teams here, all with combined WARs (season-to-date and rest-of-season) in the 31-35 range, are clearly ahead of the next seven, in the 24-28 WAR range, and everybody from that latter group appears to be a cut above the third tier, in the 20-23 WAR range. Within those tiers, I've reserved the right to go off-menu if I think it's merited, particularly when playing time estimates appear out of line or projections appear to be underselling prospects who have clearly broken through. All statistics are through Sunday.
Tier 1: The Elite
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Cody Bellinger is having an MVP-caliber season, Max Muncy has shown that last year was no fluke, and Corey Seager was finally rounding into form before he suffered a hamstring strain that -- silver lining alert -- should open up more playing time for Chris Taylor, who has struggled while playing only sporadically. The team is getting average or better production at every position except center field, where A.J. Pollock's subpar work before being injured, Alex Verdugo's slump and Enrique Hernandez's small-sample struggles within that role have been roughly replacement level -- though they project to improve significantly, particularly once Pollock returns.
2. They're cranking out an MLB-best 5.96 runs per game and also own the majors' highest wRC+ (123), UZR (15.7) and run differential (+116) as well as the American League's best record (47-23). With 11 players posting a 100 wRC+ or better in at least 100 plate appearances and seven already in double digits with homers (led by Eddie Rosario's 19), they've gotten above-average offense at every position except third base, where Miguel Sano's right heel injury left Marwin Gonzalez overexposed; Sano has returned and is now mashing. They project well going forward, with at least 1.5 WAR at every position except first base.
3. A few weeks ago, they looked unbeatable, but the hamstring injuries to Jose Altuve, Aledmys Diaz and George Springer, plus Carlos Correa's broken rib, have deprived them of four of their most potent bats, which makes the lack of production from their first base and DH slots (mainly occupied by Yuli Gurriel and Tyler White) really stand out. The recall of prospect Yordan Alvarez to help at DH could help; he homered in his debut and has added three more homers since.
Tier 2: The Very Good
4. The Rays are the only team in the majors with more than four batting title-qualified hitters with a wRC+ of at least 120 (Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham, Brandon Lowe, Avisail Garcia, Yandy Diaz and Ji-Man Choi, thank you very much). The team's 109 mark is tied for fifth in the majors, though they're just 18th in homers. A key to that is their taking advantage of the Tropicana Dome's turf. Their .287 BABIP on ground balls hit at home is the majors' highest and 52 points above the MLB average.
5. It's flat-out remarkable what the Yankees have done while getting just three games from Giancarlo Stanton, four from Didi Gregorius, 12 from Miguel Andujar, 20 from Aaron Judge and 21 from Aaron Hicks -- their top five home run hitters from last season. A rejuvenated Gary Sanchez, an improved Gleyber Torres and bargain-basement finds like Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu and Gio Urshela have greatly bolstered the offense, as has young Clint Frazier, wretched defense and all. Stanton returns this week, Judge by month's end, so in the signature words of longtime broadcaster Ken Singleton (a pretty fair hitter in his day), "Look out!"
6. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez haven't approached their MVP-caliber 2018 seasons, and both Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley Jr. have disappointed. But the steady Xander Bogaerts and the much-improved Rafael Devers, Christian Vazquez and Mitch Moreland have picked up some slack, and rookie Michael Chavis has shored up a Pedroia-sized hole at second base. The lineup as a whole projects better than all but the Dodgers, Astros and Yankees the rest of the way.
7. Chicago Cubs
Kris Bryant has already surpassed last year's home run total and fWAR, and Anthony Rizzo has put his subpar 2018 behind him as well. They're less spectacular at other positions; they've gotten just an 85 wRC+ at second base (Daniel Descalso with bits of David Bote, Addison Russell and the now-absent Ben Zobrist) and a 90 wRC+ from center field (Albert Almora Jr. and Jason Heyward) and project to finish below 2.0 fWAR at both positions and right field (Heyward's primary domain).
8. A top-heavy lineup here. Christian Yelich is having another MVP-caliber season and now leads the majors in both wRC+ (192) and home runs (26) while running with Bellinger and Mike Trout for the fWAR lead. Free agents Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas are both mashing and playing respectable defense; the latter has held his own at second base when he wasn't covering third in place of the injured Travis Shaw. That said, Lorenzo Cain has been subpar, Shaw and Jesus Aguilar even worse. They're forecast to receive less than 1.0 WAR the rest of the way at first base (where Aguilar shares time with Eric Thames), shortstop (Orlando Arcia) and left field (where Ryan Braun has been only so-so).
9. In case you were wondering whether Yelich or Bellinger has dethroned Trout as the game's best player yet, the answer is no. A month-long hot streak has carried Trout back to the fWAR lead as well as the AL lead in wRC+ (180). Despite the absences of Shohei Ohtani due to Tommy John surgery and Justin Upton due to turf toe (the former has returned, the latter just began a rehab assignment) -- not to mention the more recent losses of Zack Cozart (post-surgical shoulder tightness) and Andrelton Simmons (Grade 3 ankle sprain) -- the rest of the lineup has picked up the slack, led by the breakouts of Tommy La Stella and David Fletcher and a rebound from Kole Calhoun.
10. Atlanta Braves
Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr. and rookie Austin Riley -- who has homered 11 times in his first 29 games -- lead an offense that has nine players with a 100 wRC+ or better in at least 100 plate appearances. That said, Josh Donaldson and Ozzie Albies have underachieved, which is to say that they project better than they've produced so far, and Nick Markakis is quite ordinary again after a hot first half of 2018 that netted him his first All-Star berth at age 34.
Tier 3: The Pretty Good
11. Though they're scoring a robust 5.26 runs per game (third in the NL), their offense rates average, according to wRC+, and their projected fWAR going forward ranks just 20th, though forecasts for a combined 0.5 WAR from first base and right field (where Christian Walker and Adam Jones are the respective primaries) almost certainly undersell both. What boosts their ranking is defense, particularly from shortstop Nick Ahmed, second baseman/center fielder Ketel Marte and left fielder David Peralta.
12. Paul De Jong has emerged as a true two-way force, and Marcell Ozuna has rebounded from last year's shoulder woes, but the power outages of Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Martinez and Matt Carpenter have left the Cardinals significantly short in the power department. The strength of their track records (well, those of Goldschmidt and Carpenter) suggests better days ahead.
13. In Marcus Semien and Matt Chapman, the A's have two of the AL's 10 most valuable players, according to fWAR. The pair are not just bolstering the offense -- which has additional firepower via Matt Olson, Mark Canha and Khris Davis -- but also a defense that ranks third overall in UZR. They could really use more production from both outfield corners and second base, where the finally freed Jurickson Profar has been sub-replacement level.
14. Among their newcomers, it's J.T. Realmuto (2.6 fWAR), not Bryce Harper (1.8), who has had the biggest impact, but the latter's contributions have still helped to offset an outfield decimated by injuries (most notably to Andrew McCutchen) and the pending suspension of Odubel Herrera due to a violation of MLB's domestic violence policy (officially, he's still on administrative leave). Jean Segura (1.5 fWAR) has been a positive addition as well, and the defense -- which last year ranked 28th in UZR and set a season record for the worst DRS -- is much, much improved. (Harper's own rebound from fluky-bad metrics has helped.) They'll need more reinforcements than just Jay Bruce and rookie Adam Haseley, but with this front office's aggressive approach this past winter, it's a safe bet they'll get them.
Tier 4: Meh
15. San Diego Padres
While certainly an interesting and significantly improved team relative to last year -- and waaaay more fun than the next two teams in these rankings -- they haven't delivered on the offensive side. Five regulars have on-base percentages of .300 or worse and the team's 90 wRC+ is tied for the majors' ninth-lowest. While Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes have broken out, Manny Machado hasn't been the star at the plate he was expected to be, Fernando Tatis Jr. -- their best hitter, with a 164 wRC+ -- missed five weeks due to a hamstring injury, and Ian Kinsler persists at second base despite a lifeless bat and an alternative (prospect Luis Urias) who is shredding the PCL.
16. Between an underwhelming offense and the NL's worst defense, according to UZR, the Nationals have again belly-flopped after being projected to win the NL East. While Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto and the versatile Howie Kendrick have excelled at the plate, top prospect Victor Robles and newcomers Brian Dozier and Yan Gomes have not. Injuries to Trea Turner and Ryan Zimmerman have hit especially hard, as the team has gotten replacement-level production at both short and first base.
17. New York Mets
The offense has significantly improved over last year thanks mainly to the additions of rookie slugger Pete Alonso, super-utilityman Jeff McNeil and catcher Wilson Ramos, but by trying to squeeze more offense out of every position, the defense has suffered. Their second basemen, shortstops and third basemen have combined for minus-8.9 UZR. What's more, Robinson Cano has suddenly grown old, and his recurrent left quad strain reminds of this team's eternal knack for turning small injuries into major crises.
18. Texas Rangers
Forecast to surpass 90 losses for the second consecutive season, the Rangers rate among the biggest surprises; at 38-33, they're in the mix for the second AL wild-card spot. Among the keys have been the breakout of Joey Gallo (now down with an oblique strain that could cost him all of June) and the bouncebacks of Elvis Andrus, Shin-Soo Choo and -- most unexpectedly, given two straight dreadful seasons -- Hunter Pence. Alas, four positions project to produce less than 1.0 fWAR apiece the rest of the way, and the team's total projection of 7.4 remaining fWAR is the majors' sixth-lowest.
19. Seattle Mariners
Since starting 13-2 while cranking out 7.8 runs per game, they've gone a major-league-worst 18-42 while scoring 4.6 runs -- but allowing 6.4. Losing Mitch Haniger to a gruesome testicular injury hasn't helped, and things aren't likely to get better once general manager Jerry Dipoto finishes cleaning house after already trading away Edwin Encarnacion. The defense is gruesome in its own right; their minus-34.0 UZR is worse than those of the 28th-ranked Orioles (-13.8) and 29th-ranked Nationals (-17.8) combined. Domingo Santana and Mallex Smith have been butchers in the outfield, and the left side of the infield -- shortstop Tim Beckham and the fill-ins for the injured Kyle Seager -- has been ghastly, too.
Tier 5: Hard to win with this
20. Colorado Rockies
Most of the Rockies you'd expect to hit -- Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl and Trevor Story -- are hitting just fine, but the right side of their infield, including free agent Daniel Murphy and once-touted prospect Ryan McMahon, has provided a net minus-2.3 fWAR. Meanwhile, it has taken two months' worth of a 136 wRC+ to get Ian Desmond all the way to 0.4 fWAR.
21. Their failure to secure outfield help this past winter has cost them dearly. The outfield's combined minus-0.1 fWAR is worse than that of any other contender. What's more, Jose Ramirez -- who last year deservedly finished third in the AL in both WAR and the MVP voting -- is still mired in a mystifying, epic collapse. He's struggling to escape the Mendoza Line and replacement level (-0.2 fWAR), and Jason Kipnis is in the red on the latter front too. Rest-of-season projections place them mid-pack, but that assumes Ramirez recovers to near All-Star form, so skepticism is warranted.
22. Josh Bell is among the top five in the majors in slugging percentage (.653), Starling Marte remains solid, and rookies Brian Reynolds and Kevin Newman have been positive additions to the lineup. Alas, Gregory Polanco has regressed after last year's breakthrough, and the Bucs have too many low-wattage projections here to suggest anything more than an NL Central also-ran. Yarrrgh.
23. Cincinnati Reds
Top prospect Nick Senzel has arrived, Eugenio Suarez remains solid and Derek Dietrich has wielded an exceptionally potent bat while warding off swarms of bees and retrograde broadcasters. The rest of the lineup has largely disappointed, most notably an outfield that has combined for minus-1.4 WAR. And even with a four-week hot streak, Joey Votto has been significantly less productive than last year's career-worst showing, a sobering notion given a contract that runs through 2023.
24. Former first-round pick Hunter Dozier has broken out at age 27, Adalberto Mondesi and Whit Merrifield are pretty good and Alex Gordon is hitting as he did during the team's 2014-15 heyday. The bad news is that for some reason the team has intentionally given almost 900 plate appearances to five players with a wRC+ of 66 or worse, only one of whom (second baseman Nicky Lopez, whose presence has sent Merrifield to right field) has a future as more than a placeholder.
25. They're closer to belonging to the tier below this one than to the teams just above them, but any lineup that has both Yoan Moncada (who has begun to deliver on his promise) and Eloy Jimenez (who has delivered a .376 wOBA since returning from an ankle sprain) gets the benefit of the doubt, because things could come together more quickly than the projections suggest. Tim Anderson is contributing far more than you might expect for a guy with a 3 percent walk rate and James McCann has been a pleasant surprise, but the rest have been pretty grim. Yoan and Eloy, though ...
Tier 6: Abandon all hope
26. Their best hitter this side of a healthy-for-once Brandon Belt is the guy they picked up off the scrap heap after he was dumped with $48 million remaining on the contract for which he skipped town, namely Pablo Sandoval. From there things get depressing. Buster Posey hasn't been himself since returning from late-2018 hip labrum surgery, missing time due to a hamstring strain. Evan Longoria is looking decidedly long in the tooth, Brandon Crawford and Joe Panik have fallen off the proverbial cliff, and they own the majors' worst outfield (60 wRC+ and minus-1.8 fWAR from all participants). Mike Yastrzemski's 79-year-old grandfather might possibly fare better.
27. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has arrived, and after a slow start he's hitting as advertised, but he's just one of four Jays with a wRC+ of at least 100; Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Justin Smoak and Eric Sogard (!) are the others, and the team's position players combined for 0.4 fWAR, "good" for 29th in MLB. The projections for the rest of the season are as bleak as you might expect in mid-rebuild; only Vladdy, Smoak, Danny Jansen and Randal Grichuk project to produce at least 1.0 WAR.
28. Trey Mancini will make a credible All-Star representative, and Renato Nunez is hitting the ball over the fence with regularity, but holy Jesus Sucre, this lineup is for the birds. Chris Davis owns an 81 wRC+ in the two months since ending his nightmarish hitless streak, and there isn't a single position that projects for 1.0 fWAR the rest of the way.
29. Miami Marlins
Neil Walker's resurgence makes him a July trade candidate, but Starlin Castro, Curtis Granderson and Martin Prado have been dreadful enough to drop off at the curb, and only Jorge Alfaro, Brian Anderson and Garrett Cooper project to provide even 0.7 fWAR the rest of the way. As team CEO Derek Jeter's old manager, Joe Girardi, would say, "It's not what you want."
30. Detroit Tigers
They don't have a single player hitting for even a 110 wRC+, and their five players above 100 include such luminaries as Gordon Beckham and Brandon Dixon, both part-timers. Nick Castellanos is barely outside of that group, depressing his trade value, and Miguel Cabrera has just four homers, a .394 slugging percentage and 0.3 fWAR. There's a long way to go in this rebuilding effort, to say the least.