WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The Washington Nationals' deficit out of first place would almost be in double digits if they were part of the National League Central, the best and most competitive division in the majors. Instead, Washington is trying to find traction in the NL East slog, where the Braves desperately need relief help; the Phillies' slumping Bryce Harper is looking to build on his monster homer from Saturday; the Mets might soon be on to their next manager; and the Marlins could struggle to get to 50 wins.
The working theory in the Nationals clubhouse is that it's still early. And that there's still time for a turnaround behind the rotation of Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg. And that the team will stabilize now that Trea Turner is back at shortstop, while wearing a protective splint on his fractured index finger -- and with Turner at short, Washington's hopes for a greatly improved defense in 2019 have a better chance of being realized.
But what if Washington doesn't bounce back? Rival evaluators probably will salivate over the Nationals' roster as they look for difference-making trade targets before the July 31 deadline. Last summer, the Nationals swapped Brandon Kintzler, Daniel Murphy and others, and they seriously engaged the Astros and other teams about a possible Harper trade, so Washington's ownership has demonstrated it will embrace a reality check.
If the Nationals turn into sellers, these are the players who could draw the most interest:
• Anthony Rendon: He remains eligible for free agency in the fall, after spring contract talks did not yield a long-term extension. If the Nationals ever put him up for auction, he is bound to become the most coveted position player available. In his first 30 games this season, Rendon mustered 15 doubles, seven homers, 11 walks and an OPS of over 1.000, and like the Dodgers' Justin Turner, he is well-established as one of baseball's toughest outs, against all types of pitchers -- hard throwers, relievers, starters. He is a good defender as well.
Contending teams would love to have him and probably would be willing to go so far as to move their own established third baseman to another position for the stretch drive in order to fit in Rendon, who continues to be one of the game's most underrated players, partly because he isn't a self-promoter.
At times, Manny Machado seemed to struggle in the glare of being a hired gun for the Dodgers. Rendon, on the other hand, would probably thrive, given his particular strengths as a hitter. If the Nationals drift out of contention, they could trade Rendon for prospects, then pick up where they left off in contract talks in the spring and try to re-sign him in free agency.
• Sean Doolittle: Amid the rubble of the early-season Washington bullpen performance, Doolittle has continued to pitch well. He is left-handed, he is a closer, he has been a setup man and he dominates left-handed hitters; he would be perfect for contenders.
But he also is perfect for the Nationals, because they hold a $6.5 million option on his contract for 2020. Given the presence of Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin, it would make sense for Washington to keep him at that price -- but the Nationals could always listen to offers and demand to be overwhelmed.
• Adam Eaton: The outfielder's contract contains two more club options -- for $9.5 million in 2020 and $10.5 million in 2021, each with a $1.5 million buyout -- and because of the no-risk nature of his deal, he could draw interest. But if he is healthy and productive, then he probably is worth more to the Nationals under that deal than he would necessarily pull in trade return.
• Matt Adams: He has eight productive years in the big leagues -- valuable experience for a contender -- and he is not expensive, making $3 million in salary. He and the Nationals hold a mutual $4 million option on his deal for 2020, with a $1 million buyout.
• Gerardo Parra: The veteran outfielder has shown his value in recent days with some big hits for the Nationals, and given his years of service in right, center and left, there would be need in the market for him.
News from around the major leagues
Kyle Hendricks will pitch against the Nationals on Sunday Night Baseball, bearing a 2.86 ERA. While he has the lowest average fastball velocity of any starting pitcher in the majors, at 86.5 mph, he works quickly and throws strikes. The metrics dug out by Paul Hembekides indicates that the Cubs' right-hander tends to get more calls on the edges of the strike zone than his peers:
1. Hendricks owns the highest called strike percentage in the past two seasons of any qualified pitcher (40 percent).
2. He has received more called strikes in the past five seasons than any pitcher in baseball (2,528 pitches).
3. He owns a called strike percentage of 10.7 percent on pitches outside the zone over the past five seasons (league average is 7.6 percent).
So, as Hembo notes, you can safely say that his control combined with his quick pace produces a high volume of called strikes and a well-above-average rate of called strikes outside the zone.
When Hendricks throws a pitch, he will almost never turn his back on the hitter. Rather, he'll keep his eyes on the batter for a moment or two after the pitch crosses home plate, and like a poker player watching an opponent at the table, he'll look for the tells in the hitters' reaction. A gesture of frustration could show the hitter felt like he just missed the previous pitch with his swing. A comfortable, balanced take of a Hendricks changeup is a sign to Hendricks that the hitter was looking for the changeup -- and almost certainly wouldn't look for back-to-back changeups.
The hitter responds to the pitch, and Hendricks watches, absorbs and assesses the response.
"I really try to get in their mind of what they're trying to do," he said Saturday, in the visitors clubhouse here. "But then it translates into feel for the hitter. I like to watch [batting practice] to see what they're trying to do, what they're trying to work on."
Hendricks credited Bruce Walton, a former minor league pitching coach for the Cubs who now works for the Marlins, with helping him to read swings.
"He talked about it all the time -- being able to read swings, bat paths -- and even talking about it then, I didn't understand what he meant," Hendricks said, with a smile. "I just kept talking about it: 'OK, OK, I think I get this,' 'No, I don't understand this at all.'
"Once I started to see it with my eyes in the game, then it started to open up from there."
• Jamie Moyer threw a fastball 81 mph to 85 mph in the last decade of his career and won 210 games after being released at age 32 by the Orioles, largely because he possessed a relentless competitive arrogance -- the belief that no matter how hard or soft he threw, he would find a way to take advantage of hitters' innate desires to swing and coax them into making outs.
Hendricks nodded and laughed when this part of Moyer's personality was raised in conversation Saturday, and he acknowledged that deep inside, there's a part of him that feels the same way.
"Definitely, definitely," Hendricks said. "It's hard for me voice that. It's deep down; it is deep down. When you're out there on the mound, it's definitely showing. ... You have to tell yourself those thoughts, and never give the hitter too much credit. I know they're going to want to swing, and I know I'm only throwing 86 to 87 [mph]. They want to get me, and it should be easier. It's something I want to play off, for sure."
• Buck Showalter will turn 63 on Thursday, and he doesn't fit the typical profile of most managers being hired in this era -- young, closer in age to the players they manage. Then again, no other manager currently working, other than the Giants' Bruce Bochy, has Showalter's experience of 3,069 games, over 20 years, including five postseason appearances. Most recently, he revitalized the Orioles franchise.
All of this makes him a really good candidate for any team looking for an in-season fix. The standing of Mets manager Mickey Callaway seems tenuous at the moment, based on the whispers emanating out of the organization. And the Nationals tend to hire and fire managers at a faster rate than any club in baseball -- seven managers in the past 13 seasons, and three in the past six seasons, despite the fact that the team has made the playoffs four times. Dave Martinez is currently under contract through 2020, but Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo knows Buck Showalter well: Years ago, Showalter hired Rizzo into the Arizona organization.
• The Orioles are high on the list of concerns for Major League Baseball, given the struggles of the franchise; but according to sources, the league has not set a deadline for the team to anoint a point person, as was reported elsewhere.
• The current labor agreement has just about reached its midpoint -- about 2½ years through a five-year deal -- and despite the fact that there are incredibly complicated and difficult issues to negotiate, there are no active, ongoing talks between the league and the Major League Baseball Players Association.
Baseball Tonight podcast
Friday: San Diego broadcast legend Ted Leitner has poignant Tony Gwynn stories -- about Gwynn's days playing basketball at San Diego State, about him hitting and about the tragic end of his life -- and Leitner addresses the question of whether he was the inspiration for the Ron Burgundy character in "Anchorman"; Jessica Mendoza talks about Kyle Hendricks, the Cubs and the Nationals; Karl Ravech on Ian Kinsler's outburst, and the tenuous job status of Mickey Callaway.
Thursday: Keith Law breaks down the many high-end prospects who have arrived in the big leagues in recent weeks; Alden Gonzalez brings some West Coast Bias, with conversation about Hyun-Jin Ryu, Clayton Kershaw, the Angels and Chris Paddack's pitch count; Sarah Langs and The Numbers Game.
Wednesday: Yankees manager Aaron Boone discusses the administrative and practical process of dealing with injuries and the way his players have responded; Boog Sciambi on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Brewers and Chris Sale; Paul Hembekides brings some great statistics on the Houston Astros.
Tuesday: A chat with Brewers manager Craig Counsell; David Schoenfield on Madison Bumgarner's situation and MLB's weather challenges; Sarah Langs and The Numbers Game.
Monday: Jon Lester discusses how he maintains baseball's most consistent mechanics, and he has a great story about his mom; Tim Kurkjian on the irrelevance of Bumgarner's no-trade clause; Todd Radom's cap talk and quiz.