The end of the first month of any season carries with it more than a bit of uncertainty. There are only six months, roughly speaking, in a campaign, so the data generated in those early weeks is one-sixth of the data we'll end up with by late September. But it's not enough for us to let go of the expectations for the season established by things like preseason predictions, betting markets, analytical projections and our own set of preconceived projections.
In other words, we know some of what we've seen so far is real, some is fodder for dreamers and the exact split of those things is unknown.
As we lean into the month of May, the ratings behind the Stock Watch reflect this gray area between expectation and reality. There are more than 500 games of real-life results that have to be weighed. At the same time, the preseason projections can't yet be ignored, either. Love 'em or hate 'em, projections are based on research, established patterns and past results.
With that in mind, the pecking order laid out in the Stock Watch has evolved since the beginning of the season. That order has not, however, been overwhelmed by, for example, the tepid start of the defending champion Red Sox or the amazing start of the upstart Padres. This evolution will continue, of course, as the standings are further validated with each day's slate of games.
Before you know it, teams will start acting on those results. General managers will stop saying, "It's early" or "We believe in our guys." Teams in contention will move toward proactively bolstering their roster. The others will pivot to positioning their organization for a future push at contention. Even as Opening Day remains fresh in our minds and many games are still being played in chilly conditions -- in the upper Midwest, at least -- we're only 11 weeks away from the trade deadline. The end of July will be here before you know it.
Don't forget: Beginning with this season, there is only one trade deadline. The August waiver-wire processes have been eliminated, so late-season trades such as the one that sent ace Justin Verlander from Detroit to Houston in 2017 will no longer be possible. The timeline for in-season improvement has been accelerated.
One thing about this year's standings is that in both leagues there hasn't been a tremendous amount of separation. It's too soon to start identifying buyers, sellers and holders, but we are seeing emergent shortcomings on rosters and in organizations that might have to be addressed via outside acquisition before that July deadline arrives. As you wind your way through the data accompanying the May Stock Watch, these possible holes will be the focus of our commentary.
1. WIN FORECAST: 97.9 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: +2.9
DIVISION%: 92.4 | PLAYOFF%: 96.6
PENNANT%: 34.1 | TITLE%: 20.2
Biggest fix: As was pointed out in this week's Power Rankings, first base is the closest thing the Astros have to a sore spot. Yuli Gurriel has been the regular there, so this is, in effect, an observation about his play thus far, which has produced a 94 wRC+, according to FanGraphs. He is at 109 for his career, and his forecasts ranged from 103 (ZiPS) to 108 (Steamer), so it's reasonable to expect him to improve. Even if he doesn't, and if the Astros want to give Yordan Alvarez more time, Houston has more than enough depth to get by with a replacement-level Gurriel. However, Gurriel has positional flexibility, and whether it's Alvarez or an outside addition, getting a big-time bat at first base would enable Gurriel to move around the diamond and lessen the need for regular appearances by weak-hitting Aledmys Diaz.
Potential solution: Alvarez
2. WIN FORECAST: 96.6 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: +1.6
DIVISION%: 83.7 | PLAYOFF%: 92.8
PENNANT%: 30.4 | TITLE%: 17.0
Biggest fix: Quality bullpen depth has never been more difficult to find, especially as innings continue to shift from starters to relievers. The Dodgers have been able to cobble together solid options in front of Kenley Jansen in recent seasons, but to date, six of the 13 relievers to have appeared so far for L.A. have produced at replacement-level or below, according to FanGraphs. Even if Jansen recovers from recent inconsistencies and gets on a roll, this isn't a problem likely to go away for the Dodgers.
Potential solutions: Ian Kennedy (Royals), Roenis Elias (Mariners), Reyes Moronta (Giants)
3. Chicago Cubs
WIN FORECAST: 96.2 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: +3.3
DIVISION%: 65.6 | PLAYOFF%: 90.7
PENNANT%: 28.8 | TITLE%: 16.2
Biggest fix: The Cubs' worst positional ranking by bWAR is in left field, where Kyle Schwarber has gotten off to a slow start. Well, with a wOBA (.300) that is a good 40 to 50 points below projection, chances are Chicago simply needs to stand pat and let Schwarber find his level. The glaring item on his stat line is a diminished isolated power figure (.172), so he is one power spree away from righting the ship. His game tends to warm up with the weather anyway.
Potential solution: Schwarber
4. WIN FORECAST: 93.1 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: -2.6
DIVISION%: 48.7 | PLAYOFF%: 82.6
PENNANT%: 21.0 | TITLE%: 10.6
Biggest fix: There are 190 players who have compiled at least 100 plate appearances so far, or about 6.3 per team. Only four of those players are Yankees -- Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres, Brett Gardner and DJ LeMahieu. This is only one way to contextualize the stunning plague of injuries to beset New York this season. Despite it all, the Yankees remain largely on track to hit their preseason forecasts at the team level. Time and health are the only fixes this team needs, and sometime after the season, general manager Brian Cashman and/or manager Aaron Boone seem lined up to win some kind of major award.
Potential solution: Better health
5. WIN FORECAST: 91.3 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: -4.4
DIVISION%: 56.9 | PLAYOFF%: 77.5
PENNANT%: 13.4 | TITLE%: 6.3
Biggest fix: The win forecasts in Stock Watch have been run through a simulation of the rest of the season, so it boosts the Indians and Twins, who seem positioned to dominate their division. However, the Indians are still benefiting here from preseason projections that currently feel very shaky. The rotation has produced at top-10 level, but Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger are injured. The Indians rank 27th in WAR for non-pitchers and in the bottom eight at six positions. Some of that should self-correct as Jose Ramirez recovers from a slow start and Francisco Lindor finds his stride. But the Indians need power bats on the outfield corners in the worst way. Cleveland ranks 29th in slugging percentage from left fielders and 27th in right field.
Potential solution: Nicholas Castellanos, Tigers
6. WIN FORECAST: 91.2 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: +9.4
DIVISION%: 32.7 | PLAYOFF%: 74.1
PENNANT%: 11.1 | TITLE%: 5.0
Biggest fix: The Rays have built a pretty complete roster and seem primed to contend all season, even if the Yankees get healthy and the Red Sox overcome their sluggish start. It still feels like the Rays could use another power bat. Tampa Bay ranks in the bottom 10 in homers and doesn't really make up for that shortcoming with overwhelming batting average or walk totals. The obvious place to add some power is by acquiring an everyday designated hitter. The Rays have gotten five homers from their DHs to date, but all were hit by players who are regulars at other positions. Using the DH as a quasi-rest position is fine in many instances, but when you need homers, what better spot to find them?
Potential solution: Jose Abreu, White Sox
7. WIN FORECAST: 90.2 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: +6.8
DIVISION%: 21.9 | PLAYOFF%: 67.8
PENNANT%: 10.1 | TITLE%: 4.6
Biggest fix: The St. Louis rotation has underachieved so far, ranking 23rd in WAR and in the bottom half of the majors in quality start percentage. This is not by design; the Cardinals are a team that wants as many quality innings from its starters as it can get. Entering the season, the Cardinals' rotation looked solid and deep, if not spectacular. Not only has the group struggled, but defense-independent measures offer little to suggest that things are going to get better. If things continue on this path beyond the June draft, St. Louis might have a greater need for Dallas Keuchel than anyone.
Potential solution: Madison Bumgarner, Giants
8. WIN FORECAST: 89.7 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: +9.8
DIVISION%: 41.7 | PLAYOFF%: 67.9
PENNANT%: 8.9 | TITLE%: 3.4
Biggest fix: While there is reason to doubt whether the Twins have a balanced enough offense to sustain their early scoring, the focus probably should be on adding quality depth to the pitching staff. That could come in the form of starters (17th in WAR), relievers (20th) or both. Minnesota has exceptional foundations in both groups, with Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi heading up the rotation and Taylor Rogers becoming a relief ace in the bullpen. But there are holes pretty high up on those depth charts that will need to be shored up if the Twins are going to make this push to contention last.
Potential solution: Keuchel, free agent
9. WIN FORECAST: 87.7 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: -12.4
DIVISION%: 18.2 | PLAYOFF%: 57.1
PENNANT%: 9.0 | TITLE%: 4.1
Biggest fix: Let's focus on Jackie Bradley Jr. here. The Red Sox rank dead last in the majors in WAR at center field. Bradley (slash line of .155/.245/.186 in 111 plate appearances) has been the main offender in that area. On one hand, this is an extreme continuation of a career offensive slide that began after he made the All-Star team in 2016. On the other, Bradley did this last season, batting .195, .203 and .202 over the season's first three months, then ramping up to .269 after the All-Star break. That's more than good enough when you're playing Gold Glove defense. However, early this season, Boston ranks last in the American League with minus-11 defensive runs saved among center fielders. It's way too soon to give up on Bradley, but it's a situation to monitor closely. If the Red Sox target a replacement, it doesn't have to be a center fielder, since Andrew Benintendi and Mookie Betts both can man the position.
Potential solution: Yasiel Puig, Reds
10. WIN FORECAST: 87.0 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: -0.9
DIVISION%: 11.3 | PLAYOFF%: 47.7
PENNANT%: 5.1 | TITLE%: 2.0
Biggest fix: The Brewers already have added Gio Gonzalez to bolster the rotation, and don't forget about Jimmy Nelson, who just made his first rehab outing at Triple-A in his quest to return from shoulder surgery. Milwaukee has been able to find quality rotation innings in the past, and let's give them some more time to do that. More worrisome is a No. 19 ranking in relief WAR. The Brewers need a deep and powerful bullpen to contend, not just to lock down games late but to fully support a rotation that is built to only go through opposing lineups a couple of times per contest. The loss of Corey Knebel (Tommy John surgery) has been felt.
Potential solutions: Kennedy, Elias, Moronta or Craig Kimbrel, free agent
11. Atlanta Braves
WIN FORECAST: 86.4 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: -0.7
DIVISION%: 41.5 | PLAYOFF%: 50.8
PENNANT%: 8.2 | TITLE%: 3.6
Biggest fix: The Braves are 29th in relief bWAR. Obviously, if Atlanta is going to win the National League East again, that number has to climb about 20 spots. We know that the Braves have a lot of talented young arms in the system, something that helped them navigate heavy bullpen workloads last season en route to the division crown. However, with youth often comes inconsistency, and so far, no other teams' relievers have walked more batters than Atlanta's (71). If this keeps up, how can the Braves not pursue Craig Kimbrel a month from now?
Potential solution: Kimbrel
12. WIN FORECAST: 85.6 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: +12.8
DIVISION%: 11.9 | PLAYOFF%: 38.5
PENNANT%: 4.3 | TITLE%: 1.5
Biggest fix: After Seattle's bubble burst, the Diamondbacks emerged as baseball's biggest early surprise. Last season, the Diamondbacks finished 82-80 with a run differential of plus-49. Then they lost A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt and Patrick Corbin over the winter. So far this season, Arizona is on pace to go 98-64 with a run differential of plus-152. Thus, you see a revised forecast; and if this trend continues, the Diamondbacks will be in the wild-card race. The Diamondbacks have been good all around -- across all position groups, hitting, pitching, fielding. The great start has been more a product of balance than anything spectacular, and sure, the forecasts suggest it won't continue. Still, why plug holes that haven't popped open yet? Let this dog hunt for a while.
Potential solution: None needed at present.
13. WIN FORECAST: 85.3 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: +2.0
DIVISION%: 31.7 | PLAYOFF%: 43.3
PENNANT%: 5.9 | TITLE%: 2.0
Biggest fix: Let's ignore the Phillies' replacement-level right-field standing (sorry, Bryce Harper) and focus on the two spots that have been Philadelphia's most enigmatic positions for a few seasons now. That would be third base, primarily Maikel Franco, and center field, the domain of Odubel Herrera. We've been waiting for this pair to put it together consistently for so long now that it's hard to remember whether they did or did not play alongside Mike Schmidt and Garry Maddox. Franco is 26 and Herrera 27, and both have logged more than 500 games and 2,000 plate appearances at the big league level. Herrera just returned from the injured list, so it's time for both of these guys to put up numbers or become change-of-scenery candidates.
Potential solution: Starlin Castro, Marlins
14. New York Mets
WIN FORECAST: 81.5 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: -5.1
DIVISION%: 13.8 | PLAYOFF%: 20.8
PENNANT%: 2.8 | TITLE%: 1.1
Biggest fix: If the Mets weren't trying to contend, it would be easier to preach continued patience with Amed Rosario. But New York is trying to contend. The Mets appeared to be in the mix on paper before the season, and despite some ups and downs thus far, they are well in range of the Phillies in the NL East. That's despite the fact that Rosario continues to be a so-so offensive producer and has thus far been the second-worst defensive shortstop in baseball, according to FanGraphs metrics. Trading Rosario would probably be hasty, given that he is still just 23. But bringing in someone to stabilize a team defense that ranks 14th in the NL might be a good idea if this doesn't change soon.
Potential solution: Elvis Andrus, Rangers
15. WIN FORECAST: 80.8 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: -5.4
DIVISION%: 13.0 | PLAYOFF%: 19.6
PENNANT%: 2.2 | TITLE%: 1.0
Biggest fix: The Nationals rank 24th in reliever bWAR and 29th in save percentage, even though closer Sean Doolittle has been solid. Finding someone to help Kyle Barraclough to get leads to Doolittle is a massive need for a Washington club that already has pulled the plug on pitching coach Derek Lilliquist. Erick Fedde has been shifted full time to a relief role, and that might help. But the Nationals need more.
Potential solutions: Kennedy, Elias, Moronta and Keuchel
16. WIN FORECAST: 79.5 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: -7.2
DIVISION%: 2.6 | PLAYOFF%: 13.0
PENNANT%: 1.0 | TITLE%: 0.4
Biggest fix: This is not a repeat: The Angels rank last in rotation bWAR. There have been 10 pitchers to start games already for Los Angeles. Of the ones to start more than one, only Tyler Skaggs has been better than replacement. Prospect Griffin Canning was called up last week and was not great in his first outing, but let's give the kid a chance. After that, how long will the Angels let the journeymen flounder? Matt Harvey, Chris Stratton, Felix Pena, Trevor Cahill ... there are some replaceable slots in that depth chart.
Potential solutions: Bumgarner and Keuchel
17. Seattle Mariners
WIN FORECAST: 79.2 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: +3.4
DIVISION%: 2.4 | PLAYOFF%: 11.1
PENNANT%: 0.6 | TITLE%: 0.2
Biggest fix: We already alluded to the fact that the Mariners' 13-2 start has done an about-face. Even so, despite a 5-15 correction, Seattle is still a game over .500 and has a break-even run differential. There's no reason to give up on the season just yet. The sliding offense could be bolstered by the return of Kyle Seager by the end of the month. In the meantime, the bullpen that Jerry DiPoto ripped apart over the offseason has been performing like a group that has been ripped apart. Obviously, the Mariners aren't likely to reverse the work they've done in bulking up their farm system, but they do need to keep the roster churn going when it comes to beefing up the middle and front of the bullpen.
Potential solutions: Pitchers from the waiver wire caught in roster crunches
18. Colorado Rockies
WIN FORECAST: 78.8 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: -2.9
DIVISION%: 2.3 | PLAYOFF%: 9.4
PENNANT%: 1.0 | TITLE%: 0.4
Biggest fix: For most of the Rockies' roster, a bit of regression to norm should be all that is needed to help get the season on track. However, regression actually might work against a starting rotation that was so strong in 2018. Tyler Anderson was recently demoted after losing his way, while neither Jeff Hoffman nor Chad Bettis have looked ready to fill the void. This is another logical landing spot for Keuchel, given his ground ball ways. He has never pitched at Coors Field, so at the very least we can state that he has never allowed a run there.
Potential solution: Keuchel
19. San Diego Padres
WIN FORECAST: 78.4 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: +4.2
DIVISION%: 2.0 | PLAYOFF%: 8.5
PENNANT%: 0.4 | TITLE%: 0.1
Biggest fix: For a team just emerging from a rebuild, the Padres seem to have a good deal of pitching depth, though injuries have hit the bullpen hard. That's worth monitoring, but until it becomes an issue, the Padres need to find more offense from a roster with an OPS+ of just 89. It's a delicate balance, because the players who have compiled that number also are responsible for San Diego's plus-16 defensive runs saved. It's not apparent that an outside addition is needed. San Diego could certainly use better offense from veterans Eric Hosmer and Ian Kinsler, but even if Kinsler proves to be washed up, the Padres have good internal options for the middle of the infield. As long as the Padres can navigate their bullpen injuries, they seem poised for a fun summer.
Potential solution: None for now
20. Texas Rangers
WIN FORECAST: 77.8 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: +5.2
DIVISION%: 1.6 | PLAYOFF%: 9.0
PENNANT%: 0.4 | TITLE%: 0.1
Biggest fix: The Rangers' catchers (Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Jeff Mathis) have been baseball's worst. Mathis' revered framing abilities have been muted, with Baseball Prospectus rating him at just plus-0.3 in framing runs above average. Meanwhile, Kiner-Falefa ranks last among all catchers with minus-3.2. Like the Mariners in their own division, the Rangers weren't really thought to be contenders this season. But here they are, hovering around .500 with a plus run differential. If they hang in, finding a better partner for Mathis would be a cheap upgrade.
Potential solutions: Martin Maldonado, Royals
21. Cincinnati Reds
WIN FORECAST: 77.0 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: +0.8
DIVISION%: 0.8 | PLAYOFF%: 6.5
PENNANT%: 0.6 | TITLE%: 0.2
Biggest fix: For years, it was so certain that the Reds' biggest need would be an upgrade in starting pitching that you could almost make it part of a template. But this season, the Reds are fourth in starting pitcher bWAR. Finally! Now Cincinnati, which looms as a sleeper contender if ever there was one, has to get better production from its outfield. The Reds already have cast Matt Kemp adrift and demoted Scott Schebler. One instant flash of production seems to have arrived in the form of young Nick Senzel as the new center fielder. Meanwhile, it's reasonable to expect Yasiel Puig to regress toward career norms. He is a hot-and-cold player who hasn't yet put up a hot streak. That kind of leaves it up to Jesse Winker to flash some prolonged substance with his considerable style. In other words, with Senzel's arrival, the Reds might have in place all the pieces they need.
Potential solution: None at present
22. WIN FORECAST: 75.6 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: -4.5
DIVISION%: 0.9 | PLAYOFF%: 4.6
PENNANT%: 0.3 | TITLE%: 0.0
Biggest fix: After an ugly stretch in mid-April, the Oakland rotation seems to be trending in the right direction. Edwin Jackson, signed after the season started, has been good in two minor league outings and should be ready to help at the big league level soon, if he's not already. So, what looked like a festering wound has been patched up well enough. But as the A's build toward consistency, you have to be worried about the performance of second baseman Jurickson Profar. Oakland ranks last in bWAR at second, with Profar hitting .181/.244/.276 thus far, with the worst FanGraphs defensive rating in the majors at the position. Unless this turns soon, targeting an external upgrade might be necessary. It's not that you give up on Profar altogether, but the competition in the AL playoff race is rugged, and Oakland is coming off a 97-win season and expects to be in the midst of that chase.
Potential solution: Josh Harrison, Tigers
23. WIN FORECAST: 74.2 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: +3.1
DIVISION%: 0.4 | PLAYOFF%: 3.1
PENNANT%: 0.1 | TITLE%: 0.0
Biggest fix: The Blue Jays might end up more likely to sell than buy, and with the trade of Kevin Pillar to the Giants earlier this season, Toronto's brass seems to be anticipating that direction. But with the arrival of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., there is a window here to replenish a vanishing species known as the Blue Jays fan. The pitching has been good, so what jumps out is the across-the-board weak rankings in the outfield. The entrenched regular there is Randal Grichuk.
Potential solution: Denard Span, free agent
24. WIN FORECAST: 74.1 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: -2.5
DIVISION%: 0.4 | PLAYOFF%: 2.8
PENNANT%: 0.1 | TITLE%: 0.1
Biggest fix: The Pirates' play over the past month has been disappointing. While we're not talking Astros or Dodgers here in terms of expectations, Pittsburgh has underachieved in recent weeks. There's not a magic bullet solution to any of it. Colin Moran, Jung Ho Kang, Kevin Newman, Francisco Cervelli and others just need to play better. The Pirates don't have the upper-crust talents on the roster to make up for below-projection performances elsewhere.
Potential solution: Play better
25. WIN FORECAST: 70.7 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: -1.3
DIVISION%: 0.1 | PLAYOFF%: 0.8
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Biggest fix: Giants general manager Farhan Zaidi is churning the roster, which is a must-do for teams in a soft rebuild -- that is, teams building for the future without lighting fire to the present. The starters rank second to last in bWAR, which is the antithesis of what we think about when we think about the Bruce Bochy-led Giants. Dereck Rodriguez is young enough that you let him try to find last year's stride. But the leashes should be shorter for Drew Pomeranz and Derek Holland.
Potential solutions: Keuchel, free agent Chris Tillman and Ervin Santana, recently waived by the White Sox
26. WIN FORECAST: 70.7 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: -0.7
DIVISION%: 0.7 | PLAYOFF%: 1.4
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Biggest fix: The Royals are likely a bad team with no real shot at contention or even to be as fun to watch as it seemed like they might be. But the Royals haven't played like a gawdawful bunch for the most part, with the glaring exception being the bullpen. And that's despite the fact that Ian Kennedy has emerged as a revelation as a reliever. He, of course, becomes immediate trade fodder, with Kansas City likely needing to eat a good chunk of cash to make a deal work. But if the Royals are really trying -- and the Royals are really trying -- cycling through waiver relief options is a must. As teams start their bullpen shuttles, names will emerge.
Potential solution: Human relief pitchers with left or right arms
27. WIN FORECAST: 70.2 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: -3.0
DIVISION%: 0.4 | PLAYOFF%: 1.0
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Biggest fix: The White Sox are another club whose potentially exciting start has been undermined by a thin relief corp. Chicago has been proactive in shuttling guys to and from the minors, but they are all names we've seen tried before. The White Sox are further along than the Royals, so they can expand their search beyond the waiver wire to extra arms on the lower-rung teams and take a flier on a fifth- or sixth-year minor leaguer or two.
Potential solution: Human relief pitchers with left or right arms
28. Detroit Tigers
WIN FORECAST: 69.9 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: -0.5
DIVISION%: 0.3 | PLAYOFF%: 0.9
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Biggest fix: Detroit's pitching has been pretty good. No, really. The Tigers' starters rank third in bWAR, while the relief crew is a solid 15th. Detroit would have clearly emerged as the best of the AL Central's three rebuilding teams if not for an offense averaging a meager 3.52 runs per game. Second base has been an issue at the plate, but Josh Harrison has been great in the field. Third baseman Jeimer Candelario hasn't hit for power, but you can afford to wait that slump out. The areas to target are center field (30th in OPS) and DH. The Tigers do have a center-field prospect in Daz Cameron, but he is off to a bad start at Triple-A Toledo, and at 22, he is not at an age when you need to push his timeline. Getting back Christin Stewart, who is out on a rehab assignment, could be a big help to the attack, but he doesn't play center. A low-risk option might be to try utility player Niko Goodrum out there as a regular. As for DH, why not take a flier on free agent Evan Gattis?
Potential solutions: Goodrum and free agent Gattis
29. WIN FORECAST: 60.2 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: -2.2
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.0
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Biggest fix: The Orioles are every bit as bad as we thought they'd be, but they don't yet seem as bad as the club that tumbled to 115 losses last season. Yet there is simply no shortcut to competitiveness for a system that has dropped so far. The Orioles have been active in the quiet parts of the transaction market ever since Mike Elias took over as general manager. But Elias has been tasked with more than a roster makeover; he has to build an entire new infrastructure, just as Theo Epstein had to do when he arrived in Chicago, and that's going to take time.
Potential solution: Read Allan Lokos' "Patience: The Art of Peaceful Living"
30. Miami Marlins
WIN FORECAST: 55.3 | CHANGE FROM APRIL: -8.8
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.0
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Biggest fix: The Marlins rank 11th in bWAR at catcher. Congratulations Jorge Alfaro and Chad Wallach! Your position is the only place where Miami ranks in the top half of the majors. They rank dead last in relievers, left field, right field and pinch hitters. So, gosh, what do you fix first? The Marlins aren't playing to contend, only to avoid ignominy. Check out their revised forecast. They were projected to go 64-98 before the season. That's not a good forecast. They've already played so poorly that the forecast dropped by another nine games.
Potential solution: Hold a seance to contact the ghost of Branch Rickey