Madison Bumgarner will be the most prominent pitcher available in the trade market, but that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be the most coveted. Last summer, a bunch of big-name relievers were moved before July 31, including Jeurys Familia, Joakim Soria and Brad Hand, and as it turned out, the guy who had the most impact was a Red Sox reject who suddenly mastered his craft and blossomed at age 29 -- Ryan Pressly.
Since the Astros targeted him in trade talks with the Twins last summer, he has allowed two runs in 42 regular-season appearances (no runs in 2019), with three walks and 50 strikeouts. Either he or Josh Hader probably has the standing as baseball's best reliever, and yet most casual baseball fans wouldn't recognize Pressly.
It might be that other available starting pitchers could perform better than Bumgarner and perhaps draw more trade interest. But because of Bumgarner's excellent postseason history and his longstanding ties to the Giants, his situation will get the most attention -- and there is interest. San Francisco is willing to discuss the left-hander now, and with the July 31 trade deadline newly cemented and August safety-net deals no longer allowed, Bumgarner seems more likely to be moved soon after the draft in three weeks than to dangle in the market past the All-Star break.
Yes, Bumgarner does have a no-trade clause that includes eight clubs -- the Astros, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Phillies, Red Sox and Yankees. But, as we wrote in more detail Monday, interested executives see it as an opportunity for the pitcher to get some extra cash from the Giants on the way out -- and not as a roadblock to a deal.
Based on conversations with rival evaluators, here's how teams could stack up as possible fits for a Bumgarner trade with the Giants:
1. San Diego Padres: For decades, a longstanding practice of front offices was to never trade with a division rival, lest you have to watch your former player dog pile in a celebration with a team you're supposed to hate. But mostly, that sort of superstition is going by the wayside; in Farhan Zaidi's formative baseball experience, the Giants president worked in Oakland for Billy Beane, who believed that old-school thought was stupid. First and foremost, Beane thought, you want to get the best possible return in whatever trade you make, regardless of whether it's from your division or some other division, and secondly, by choosing prospects from a rival, you should have the confidence your deal will hurt them in the long run.
It seems unlikely, then, that Zaidi would hesitate to trade Bumgarner to the Padres, whose distinct need for experienced starting pitching might be exacerbated later in the summer by the team's increased chances for the playoffs and Chris Paddack's innings limits. Bumgarner could be a perfect fit for the Padres, given his experience in the division and in pennant races, and Zaidi could choose from what generally is regarded as the best and deepest farm system in baseball.
By the way: There is probably one team with which the Giants would not make a Bumgarner trade -- the Dodgers. The politics of sending an important part of the San Francisco legacy to L.A. might simply be too much to overcome.
2. St. Louis Cardinals: They've made a big push in the NL Central this year, with the trade for Paul Goldschmidt and other moves, and their lineup and bullpen are performing well. But their rotation has had some trouble spots and is entirely right-handed. Bumgarner would slot in nicely, and the Cardinals have the sort of major league-ready prospects to make a deal, in the eyes of rival evaluators.
3. Philadelphia Phillies: The need will be there, and the desire to make a deal could be there. But their farm system is seen by other teams as depleted after some of their recent moves, and in a competitive bidding situation, they might be overwhelmed by other contenders.
4. Houston Astros: Jeff Luhnow has executed difference-making deals in the past -- for Justin Verlander, for Pressly, and he tried to land Bryce Harper last summer. The Astros have good, young pitching at the top of their farm system, but with Gerrit Cole headed into free agency in the fall, Houston could target Bumgarner in the same way it went after Verlander -- hoping to bring on a pitcher who could help win in the postseason, with an eye toward persuading the player to stay. Houston might already be the favorite to win the World Series, and if the Astros traded for Bumgarner and helped him make adjustments, as they did with Verlander, they would probably be prohibitive favorites in October.
5. Milwaukee Brewers: On paper, Bumgarner could fill needs for the Brewers -- a rotation stabilizer, somebody who chews up innings, somebody who has pitched in big games. But since David Stearns took over as head of baseball operations for Milwaukee, he has demonstrated that he's not inclined to pay sticker price for anything -- and the bidding for Bumgarner figures to push the asking price. Additionally, other teams think the Brewers have an OK but unspectacular farm system, and Stearns might prefer to go back to the bargain bin for pitching, something he has done well over the past two years.
Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell noted in conversation over the weekend that when discussing the Brewers' pitching needs, it's important to remember they're not a franchise of unlimited resources.
6. Minnesota Twins: The Twins might have the need and the will to do a Bumgarner deal, although the lackluster AL Central takes the pressure off Minnesota to pay aggressively for anybody.
7. New York Yankees: The Yankees have such a crazy-long list of injuries, it's difficult to define exactly what their trade priorities will be in the weeks ahead. Eventually, they'll probably be in the market for a starting pitcher ... but with a farm system relatively thin in the upper levels, they would seem to be at a competitive disadvantage.
8. Boston Red Sox: The need might be there, but the bullpen will likely be their priority in this summer's market.
9. Atlanta Braves: Bumgarner could be a stabilizer for the rotation, and Atlanta is loaded with major league-ready pitching assets, but as with the Red Sox, relief help might be the priority.
10. Los Angeles Angels: They're playing well lately and they want to win ASAP -- but it's hard to see them being hyperaggressive right now, given the strength of the Astros. It might make more sense to target less costly options in the starting pitching market.