If the San Francisco Giants had slogged along to the All-Star break with a record around .500, not really in contention but not really out of it, then Farhan Zaidi, the team's new head of baseball operations, would have faced difficult decisions. He might have been compelled to play out what was probably a losing hand and perhaps hang on to Madison Bumgarner and other veterans for a playoff push, in Bruce Bochy's final year as the team's manager.
But the Giants are lousy in 2019, with 23 losses in 40 games, and they're already 8½ games out of first place, bearing one of the game's worst run differentials. This is more of the same from a team that lost 98 games in 2017 and 89 games a year ago, and Zaidi can now operate untethered from the illusion the core of ring-bearing champions might generate one more run at the playoffs.
Zaidi can get serious about the business of a reconstruction, and the perception of other teams is that the Giants are open for offers, for Bumgarner and others. Right now.
The No. 1 puzzle in this era is how to cope with and adapt to a World Series hangover; like the Cubs and Astros and other teams before them, the Red Sox are trying to become the first repeat champion since the 1998-2000 Yankees by navigating through the complications of a deep run through October. But another major quandary that some front offices have struggled with, in the past decade, is identifying the appropriate time to break up a championship team. With the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, we can say that the Phillies clung too long to the core of the 2008 championship team, and similarly, it's evident that the Giants probably reinvested too much money and hope in the players who helped to win titles in 2010, 2012 and 2014.
Zaidi will have to clean up the mess of those contracts as best he can, while restocking the farm system that has been mostly dormant over the past decade, and he's got some pieces to move.
As reported Saturday, Bumgarner's no-trade clause includes eight teams -- the Braves, Cubs, Red Sox, Astros, Yankees, Brewers, Phillies and Cardinals. But it isn't viewed as a serious impediment by some interested execs; rather, they assume it's just a way for the left-hander to extract a little additional money from the Giants on his way out the door.
An executive with a rival club says that coaxing Bumgarner to waive the no-trade clause will be the Giants' responsibility, and that presumably, San Francisco will pay the additional tariff to make a deal happen in order to facilitate the addition of prospects it'd land in a trade of the left-hander. Something like that is probably worth $1-1.5 million in the eyes of some evaluators, and perhaps more. When Brandon Phillips was traded by the Reds to the Braves, he received about $2.3 million in order to approve the deal.
It's very possible that the no-trade clause won't be a factor at all, because 21 teams are not on the list. But the priority for the Giants will need to be landing the best available prospects in return.
And a final payment to Bumgarner could be seen as one last thank-you bonus to a player who outperformed his salary for the Giants in his role in the three championships of 2010, 2012 and 2014, by many tens of millions of dollars.
The Giants also can flip some pitchers. Derek Holland, making $7 million this year, was dropped out of the rotation Saturday night, but has the stuff to be effective out of the bullpen for a contender. He has held left-handed hitters to five singles and no extra-base hits in 33 plate appearances; San Francisco can expect to get a decent prospect for him. Lefty reliever Will Smith is off to a decent start, and with a salary of $4.23 million, he's very tradable. Drew Pomeranz is in the rotation for now, but as the Giants advance through this lost season, it would make sense for them to move him into the bullpen and trade him, as with Holland, to create opportunities for them to see other, younger pitchers from their farm system.
Other possible trade chips haven't helped their value. Brandon Crawford is hitting .218 at age 32, and is viewed by some evaluators as a player in regression, particularly on defense. Brandon Belt could have some value because of his ability to get on base, but given his injury history and his salary, the Giants would probably have to eat money to move him. Evan Longoria is 33, has a .279 OBP and still has 3½ years left on his deal; San Francisco's only shot at dealing him at this point would be in a swap of bad contracts.
Because the major league roster seemingly provides little trade leverage for Zaidi beyond Bumgarner and Smith deals, he can continue to focus on slowly accumulating bits of value -- something he has tried to do among the outfielders.
But the larger sell-off appears to be inevitable, now that the Giants have declared themselves the kind of team they are in 2019.