CLEVELAND -- In a first month of mostly bad days, the Boston Red Sox had a good day Friday. Mookie Betts swung confidently, aggressively, and as he told reporters afterward, it felt good to square up a ball again. Rafael Devers started a sweet double play, and the Boston bullpen was excellent, contributing 3⅔ scoreless innings against the Rays, the team the Red Sox are chasing in the AL East.
On Saturday, however, the Red Sox learned that they will be without World Series hero Nathan Eovaldi for the foreseeable future because of elbow trouble. It's possible that the Red Sox, who won 119 games last season, will climb their way back to contention; Boston's offense might be too good to remain dormant for very much longer.
But if the problems persist, if Chris Sale's command remains spotty and the team's drift continues, Boston's management will have a choice to make in midseason about whether to become sellers and begin to focus on 2020.
Really, it should be an easy decision, because the team's ownership and front office have earned credibility. They should have a "Get Out Of Jail Free" card to play with the Red Sox fan base. They stacked the roster, expending prospects and dollars compiling the highest payroll in the majors in 2018, and enjoyed record-setting success. Boston continued to spend money this spring, investing big to keep Sale and shortstop Xander Bogaerts and demonstrating, again, that yes, this team wants to win and is trying to win.
A choice to sell off some pieces -- if that is what occurs -- should be received as an earnest assessment by Dave Dombrowski and his bosses of the best way to fuel a rebound in 2020.
If the Red Sox go into sell mode, it would make lots of sense for them to take offers for slugger J.D. Martinez. He has an opt-out in his contract after this season, and considering how good he has been in recent seasons, he should explore that possibility. Martinez, who turns 32 in August, is owed about $62.5 million for the next three seasons. Although the going rate for DH/corner outfield types for deals of that length seems to be about $60 million -- that's what Edwin Encarnacion and Carlos Santana got in free agency in three-year deals -- Martinez would probably do better than that after compiling 358 total bases last year and hitting .351 in his first 20 games this year. The Red Sox could flip Martinez for prospects this summer -- the Dodgers could be a fit, and hell, any contender could be a fit -- and then join the bidding for him in the fall.
Mitch Moreland is an experienced and accomplished first baseman who is in the second year of a two-year, $13 million deal. Rick Porcello is allowing about two hits and one run per inning so far this year and would have to make a turnaround to build some trade value, but if that happens, the Red Sox could eat some of the last dollars on his deal and move him for some minor league pieces. The Boston farm system is depleted and could use an injection of talent.
On Friday's podcast, Karl Ravech speculated about the possibility of the Red Sox listening to offers for Mookie Betts. The Red Sox have made overtures to Betts' camp about working out an extension, but Betts has fended those off and is less than two years from reaching free agency -- so yes, there might come a day when Boston listens to offers for the AL MVP.
It seems unlikely that would be this summer, however. No matter how the Red Sox finish in 2019, they'll be trying to win in 2020, and Betts will presumably be part of that effort. The Red Sox have big money invested in Sale and Bogaerts already, perhaps with more to come.
If they do become measured sellers, however, with Martinez and Moreland and maybe others, it would be a rational response to a historically bad start for the defending champions.
News from around the majors
As the Atlanta Braves batted late on Sunday Night Baseball on April 14, Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr. sat on the steps at the outfield end of the home dugout, poking at each other like brothers until one grabbed the other in a wrestling hold. A steel cage match seemed imminent until Johan Camargo ripped a ball between outfielders, and then Albies and Acuna jumped up to celebrate -- again, bumping each other:
.@ronaldacunajr24: Baseball player, coach and cheerleader 😂 pic.twitter.com/pA6G0YUTvz
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) April 15, 2019
The two friends probably have a lot more moments like this ahead of them, now that each is locked into a long-term deal. Last week, Albies' seven-year, $35 million contract was the source of a lot of agita: criticism of the player for accepting the deal and criticism of the Braves for supposedly taking advantage of Albies.
But some stuff worth remembering:
1. Albies is not a superstar prospect at the level of his teammate Acuna. Rather, Albies is a really good young player with some notable flaws. He is a free swinger, hacking aggressively, and pitchers used that trait against him in the second half of last season. As Paul Hembekides notes, so far in his career, Albies's production has been a .303 average and a .943 OPS in March/April regular-season games and .254/.705 OPS thereafter.
The past two years, his swing rate of 57 percent is the sixth-highest among all hitters who qualified for batting titles. His chase rate of 33 percent is 30th-highest in the majors. His strikeout-to-walk ratio -- about 3-to-1 -- is 34th-lowest in the majors.
It's possible that he could evolve as a hitter, but typically, batters with a hyper-aggressive approach such as this don't change that much. Last year, in a season in which evaluators fell in love with Albies, he generated an on-base percentage of .305 and was dropped into the middle of the Atlanta batting order because of his OBP. Albies is a switch-hitter, but he struggled last year from the left side.
2. Albies plays with a screw in the elbow of his throwing arm, as the result of a devastating injury he suffered in the minors -- a freakish fracture that occurred in the midst of a swing of the bat, not in a collision with a baserunner nor on a headlong dive into the stands nor on some freakish defensive play. He broke his elbow taking a swing, something he'll do dozens of times daily. Albies knows firsthand how quickly a career might evaporate in one serendipitous moment.
3. Teams love positional flexibility and will pay for that. Javier Baez can play shortstop, third and second and could probably punt for the Bears. DJ LeMahieu has shown this year that he can play all over. Ben Zobrist is the ultimate utilityman. Albies is a second baseman, and because of his throwing arm, that's it.
Second basemen have done very poorly in the market in recent years, relative to their position-player peers. In 2017, Jonathan Schoop hit 32 homers for the Orioles and made the All-Star team, and last fall, the Brewers dumped him, declining to tender him a contract partly because of where the salary scale has gone at the position. LeMahieu has been an All-Star, a Gold Glover and a batting-title contender, and he couldn't get anything more than a two-year deal from the Yankees. Neil Walker, a solid veteran for years with the Pirates, has made a total of $6 million in his past two contracts. It's possible that Albies could evolve and separate himself from that group, mostly through his speed and experience. It's possible that he'd grow into more of a comparable to Jose Altuve than to the second basemen mentioned above, but some evaluators see that as unlikely.
For the Braves, it's a solid deal either way because of the cost certainty and salary containment in compensating a really good young player. If Albies gains some discipline at the plate, he could turn out to be wildly underpaid at the end of this contract.
But no matter what happens with his swing or his baseball health, Ozzie Albies' family is assured financial security, something he never knew while growing up. Albies told an acquaintance recently that during his childhood, he looked forward to a monthly meal at a fast-food restaurant -- something his family regarded at that time as a significant expenditure.
He is the oldest of three siblings, and shortly after he signed in pro ball, his father, Osgarry Albies, died from a heart attack at age 40. Albies, friends say, has felt the responsibility of taking care of his family. Now, with this new contract, Albies gets guaranteed millions, and more importantly, the others around him are financially safe -- something probably worth far more to him than the money.
• Khris Davis joined the ranks of players who have agreed to team-friendly multiyear contract extensions, with more to come. For example, Oakland has also talked with Marcus Semien about a new deal.
As the number of players under contract continues to grow, some agents and players increasingly doubt whether the union has the foundation from which to suggest, as a standard means of labor leverage, that the players could threaten work stoppage. Those who have signed contract extensions might have less motivation to support a strike because they have more to lose under the terms of their deals.
The shift in the relative power between the union and Major League Baseball in the past three years is probably the most significant since the players won free agency with the Andy Messersmith and Dave McNally arbitration decision in 1975, with the owners continually gaining ground.
• Before Derek Jeter became the chief executive officer and part owner of the Marlins, he played much of his career for George Steinbrenner, and the Marlins' decision to fire hitting coach Mike Pagliarulo was very Steinbrenner-esque. In less than two years, the franchise traded away the best and most experienced hitters on the roster -- Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto, Marcell Ozuna, Justin Bour and others -- and replaced them with a lot of very young and very inexperienced hitters. Shockingly (or not so shockingly), the Marlins' offense hasn't been very good.
But it's Pagliarulo who loses his job, on April 20, after 20 games of the 2019 season. Steinbrenner executed one of the most ridiculous firings in history in 1985, when he fired manager Yogi Berra 16 games into the season on April 28, with the team's record at 6-10. Berra famously stayed away from Yankee Stadium for 14 years before settling his differences with the Yankees' owner.
You wouldn't blame Pagliarulo if he feels like he has been scapegoated. In 2017, when the Marlins still had Yelich ... and Stanton ... and Bour ... and Ozuna ... and Realmuto ... and others, Miami finished fifth in the NL in runs, despite playing its home games in a park distinctly favorable for pitchers.
Baseball Tonight podcast
• Friday: Wayne Coffey, author of a new book on the 1969 New York Mets, discusses that team's legacy and the late Gil Hodges' Hall of Fame candidacy; Karl Ravech talks about who would be part of an all-pitching Mount Rushmore among players past and present; Jessica Mendoza on Josh Donaldson.
• Thursday: CC Sabathia weighs in on the retaliation aimed at Tim Anderson of the White Sox after his celebratory bat throw; Keith Law weighs in on the panic in Boston; Sarah Langs and The Numbers Game.
• Wednesday: Paul Hembekides on the ascension of Christian Yelich; Boog Sciambi on the Anthony Rendon contract negotiations; Alex Speier of the Boston Globe on the Red Sox's problems.
• Tuesday: A conversation with Hank Aaron; Sharon Robinson talks about her dad, Jackie; Dave Schoenfield on Yasiel Puig 's return to L.A. and Clayton Kershaw's return to the rotation; Sarah Langs and The Numbers Game.
• Monday: Jacob deGrom talks about his unusual career path and teenage insistence that he didn't want to pitch; Tim Kurkjian on Jackie Robinson Day; Negro Leagues president Bob Kendrick; cap talk with Todd Radom.