My first dispatch from my spring-training rounds, this one from the east coast of Florida ...
Julio Teheran had his worst velocity in 2018, averaging just under 90 mph on his fastball (per FanGraphs), so he enters this season as a major question for Atlanta, a player who has had a rotation spot for years but might no longer be one of the top five options. He started the Braves' game Sunday at the Marlins' stadium in Jupiter, Florida, and the signs from this outing weren't any better than they were coming out of 2018.
Teheran was mostly 89-92 early, hitting some 93s in the fourth inning, but it took a huge amount of effort for him to get there, with a herky-jerky delivery that he couldn't repeat and had his head moving at release. Teheran might not be able to throw in the mid-90s without effort, but the fact that it takes this much work to get to average velocity is a big concern. His slider was just average, maybe a tick below, as was his changeup.
With Mike Soroka out with a sore shoulder and now Mike Foltynewicz, last year's breakout star in the Braves rotation, dealing with a sore elbow, the pitching depth is a little more tested, but I don't think the Braves have to put Teheran in their Opening Day rotation. Max Fried looked very good in relief last year but has a starter's arsenal and delivery, and Kyle Wright debuted last year and isn't far from big-league-ready himself. It's not easy to bump a longtime veteran from a starting spot, but if Teheran doesn't look better between now and Opening Day, they're going to have to do just that.
*The Marlins' starter Sunday was Sandy Alcantara, one of the players who came back from St. Louis in the Marcell Ozuna trade. He had some problems, though velocity wasn't one. Alcantara was 94-98 and looked like he was trying to get a little more life on the pitch, as he has been at 96-100 in previous looks but with no movement or life. He showed what looked like two distinct breaking balls that would blend around 85-86, with 11/5 break on the slower curveball and more power but less tilt or spin on the slider. He mixed in a too-firm changeup starting in the third inning, but it wasn't effective and was easy for hitters to see in his delivery. Ultimately, Alcantara's potential to start comes down to his fastball. He has velocity but not the movement or command to work off it as a primary pitch.
*Lefty Kolby Allard threw in relief for Atlanta but was unable to finish an inning, giving up a grand slam to a right-handed minor league journeyman when he tried to go inside with a bad changeup. Allard was 89-91 with an above-average curveball and a solid slider, but the change was generally below average, and his fastball seems to play down from its velocity.
*Riley Ferrell, whom the Marlins took in the Rule 5 draft from the Astros, didn't look great, pitching at 92-94 with a hard curveball at 81-82. He has never been a command guy, but he had better velocity to get away with it in short bursts.
*On the position-player side, Atlanta started one of its top prospects, third baseman Austin Riley, at first base. I've written about Riley's below-average bat speed before, and while he has performed up through Triple-A, the issue is still there. He was behind good velocity all day, cutting right through 95-96 in the zone, appearing to look fastball in his third at-bat and starting his swing so early he couldn't adjust to a slider away. He has produced enough in the minors that I believe he'll get a real opportunity in Atlanta this year -- someone is likely to get injured and create a space -- but I think he's going to have a hard time with big league fastballs.
*Cristian Pache came in as a substitute and had two hard-hit singles, both on mid-90s fastballs, one off the end of his bat, but still hit it well enough to get the ball to center.
*For the Marlins, Isan Diaz and Monte Harrison played Saturday and Sunday, with Diaz at least showing some of the skills that made him a former top-100 prospect, including strong plate discipline, some power the other way and a plus arm, though he isn't really capitalizing on favorable counts. Harrison unfortunately was overmatched every which way at the plate and still hasn't made any adjustments in his approach, so pitchers get him with velocity in the zone or have him chasing pitches out of it.
*Monday brought me to Palm Beach for the Mets-Astros tilt, which ended up featuring some top prospects from the Houston side. The Astros started Framber Valdez, a power-armed lefty who was up to 95 with his four-seamer and worked with a two-seamer at the 89-91 end of the range, with a tight curveball at 76-79 and below-average changeup at 86-88 (the pitch Pete Alonso murdered for a double to left-center). There's stuff here to like, but I didn't see a put-away pitch, not in the pure stuff and certainly not in how he used it, with the Mets' few right-handlers obviously happy to face him.
*J.B. Bukauskas threw the last two innings for Houston. The former first-rounder was 92-97 with an average slider at 86-88 and fringy changeup at 86-90 that he turns over so hard I have to think hitters will pick it up. His delivery is still very arm-heavy, and as usual, he was around the plate.
*Alonso crushed that double in his first at-bat, then tapped out to the pitcher on 92 away and lined softly to short when he got on top of a right-handed reliever's sinker later in the game. With Dom Smith -- who came in later in the game, bunted once and then struck out on two straight changeups from Bukauskas -- hitting well in camp and finding favor with the Mets' new front office, I wouldn't be that surprised or disappointed to see Alonso spend a few weeks in Triple-A while the Mets let Smith play and see who's healthy among some of their other options.
*Kyle Tucker delivered the winning hit for the Astros in the bottom of the eighth after coming in as a midgame replacement and striking out with a huge swing in his previous at-bat. In the eighth, he got a 1-1 fastball from a right-hander and was all over it, doubling to right field (with help from replacement right fielder Rymer Liriano, who needed a suit of armor out there for his own protection) to drive in two.