Bad weather chased me around Texas -- or so I choose to believe -- but I did manage to see my main target for the trip, Colleyville Heritage High School shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., for one game on Saturday before leaving town (his team's Friday doubleheader was washed out). Witt, the presumptive top high school player in the draft class and the son of the No. 3 overall pick in the 1985 draft, went 4-for-4 with four singles in his team's 20-1 victory over Midlothian. (You might say their win by mercy rule ripped out ... the heart of Midlothian. Or you might not.)
Witt is a gifted athlete who certainly shows three of the five tools and very good instincts on both sides of the ball. His swing is simple and direct, and he shows excellent hand strength for hard contact. His load and setup are fine, but his swing gets long, and he collapses his back side on nearly every swing. There might be power here from his strength and swing path, but he'll swing and miss quite a bit with that kind of finish, and he can be vulnerable in several ways to pitchers with decent off-speed stuff.
In the field, however, he is smooth and definitely projects to stay at shortstop with a plus arm, good range to his left and soft hands. He also is a plus runner, and he seemed to steal bases at will against a weak opponent, even with lefties on the mound the entire game.
Witt is well-known and has shown well in various showcases and summer events over the past few years, so he is going to be drafted high, likely higher than I'd rank him, given the concerns I have with his swing. He also is going to turn 19 just a week after the draft, putting him on the old side for a prep hitter (although not the oldest in this report), which also will cost him with teams that draft using analytical models that incorporate age as a variable. He could be a star, but I don't think he is the sort of high-ceiling/high-probability prospect teams typically want with one of the top three picks.
• Houston-area Cypress Ranch High School has two top prospects for this year's draft, both right-handed pitchers, and one helped himself in a doubleheader on Thursday, while the other's start was a catastrophe. JJ Goss was outstanding, as he struck out 15 and didn't give up a hit until the final inning (which he shouldn't even have started given his pitch count and the cold, wet conditions). He pitched at 90 to 94 mph his entire outing with good life and moved the ball around well left, right and especially up for swings-and-misses. His slider was 81 to 85 mph, short and tight, and he showed some feel to command it, burying it in to left-handed batters rather than going to his changeup, which he showed but just barely and which was probably too firm to be a viable third weapon. Goss is very aggressive on the mound, maybe a little too much so as he rushes his delivery and separates his hands a bit early, but he gets good extension out front and showed zero fear or ill effects from the weather.
• His teammate Matt Thompson had hit 95 mph in his previous start, but he cut Thursday's pregame bullpen short with a nosebleed, then was awful in the game -- 90 to 92 mph in the first, 86 to 88 in the second and 84 to 86 in the third. He did show a good slider, short and tight like a cutter, in the first, and had some four-seam life to his fastball, but everything else was off. He was coming across his body, couldn't command either pitch and left the game after four innings. He looks very athletic, and his arm path seemed fine, but pitchers who lose velocity like that are often hurt in some way.
• Lake Travis HS outside of Austin also has a pair of potential high draft picks, both of whom looked like first-rounders this week. Right-hander Jimmy Lewis was dominant on Wednesday, working 90 to 94 mph and moving the ball well to both sides of the plate, with a tight-spinning curveball that seemed to improve as the game went on. Lewis also really competed, looking more focused and pitching more efficiently when he started approaching the pitch limit his coach had set for him before the game. Lewis has a very quick arm and gets great extension over his front side, with some effort to the delivery, in part because he doesn't repeat it that well, but he looks athletic enough that he should be able to do so. He also is still quite projectable, and I could see him sitting at 93 to 96 mph in a few years with a plus curveball.
• Teammate Brett Baty, a third baseman, has the potential for a plus-hit/plus-power combination that should be enough to overcome concerns about his size. He has very fast hands, and he showed a good approach for a high school hitter. There's obvious power here, which he showed the day after I was there with a huge homer in his first at-bat; while on Wednesday, he stayed shorter to the ball and hit a pair of singles, both well-hit, around an intentional walk and an HBP. Baty is listed at 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds, both of which seem well out of date; he looks 6-foot-5 and probably 235 pounds or more. He is agile for someone so big, but the odds of him playing anywhere but first base or an outfield corner are pretty slim, so he has to hit. Baty's other drawback is his age; he already is 19 and will be past 19½ on draft day, which will kill him in some analytical models. I do think age matters, but it's not definitive; J.T. Realmuto was about 19¼ when he was drafted, and he has turned out OK, while Blake Rutherford was 19 and a month, and so far he hasn't hit like he did in high school. Baty looks like he has enough hit and power to at least move into low-A in 2020 after he signs, which would be my main scouting criterion for clearing a 19-year-old prep hitter for a high pick.
• TCU lefty Nick Lodolo was the 41st overall pick in 2016, but he turned down a reported seven-figure bonus from the Pittsburgh Pirates to play for the Horned Frogs. He'll probably do better in the draft this time around as a college starter in a weak class, but I don't think he has developed as much as scouts expected. Pitching against Grand Canyon on Friday night, Lodolo was mostly 91 to 94 mph with a big-breaking slider of 79 to 82 mph, using the latter to get chase swings, and he threw both pitches for strikes when he wanted to. Neither pitch gets swings-and-misses in the zone, however, and I don't think his fastball plays up to its velocity. He flashed a changeup with some fading action, too firm at 85 to 86 mph but very promising at 81 to 82. Lodolo's arm slot looks a little higher to me than it did three years ago, which probably helps him have a chance to start, and he still has some room to get stronger and perhaps throw harder. He struck out 12 but gave up a pair of solo homers, one very well-struck by the Antelopes' best prospect.
• That would be Grand Canyon right fielder Quin Cotton, who took an 0-2 pitch that was running in on him out with a great two-strike swing where he waited on the pitch, letting it travel before starting his bat. He is an above-average runner with quick hands at the plate, but he was seen as an extra outfielder in pro ball because he didn't have the power for a corner. (He had nine homers total in two years at Grand Canyon and three summers in wood-bat leagues.) I don't think he's a plus-power guy even in the future, but he seems strong enough to hit for enough power and quality contact to profile as a soft regular.
• Kansas' series against Texas Southern was moved south to Melissa, Texas, so a number of us in town to see Witt and Lodolo went there to see Jayhawks right-hander Ryan Zeferjahn, who was 89 to 95 mph in his 11 a.m. start but didn't show much in the way of secondary stuff. His slider at 79 to 83 mph wasn't very sharp and only showed good tilt at the very top end of that range, and his changeup at 80 to 81 -- a circle change or palmball, I think -- seemed too easy to spot. He also dropped down several times when throwing his slider, with a slot above three-quarters for his fastball and change. He comes from the extreme third-base side of the rubber, so he is a little across his body to get on line to the plate, but it gives him modest deception, as well. Between the lack of secondaries and below-average command, he is more likely to be a reliever or less than a major league starter.
• There was a lot of buzz among area scouts about Texas Tech infielder Josh Jung's bat, with most saying he is a top-half-of-the-first-round guy, even though he doesn't project to stay at third. That could give the state three picks in the top 10, with Witt and Baylor catcher Shea Langeliers, who broke a hamate bone last Saturday and will be out for the next few weeks -- and likely won't show the same hand strength or contact quality after he returns.