J.T. Realmuto has been stuck in purgatory so long there's now a terrace there named after him, but he was finally rescued Thursday by the Philadelphia Phillies, who traded their No. 1 prospect, Sixto Sanchez, as well as their starting catcher, Jorge Alfaro, and another prospect in Will Stewart to save him.
Going from Alfaro to Realmuto behind the plate, the Phillies get about a 2-win upgrade as it stands right now, with the potential for more if they can do anything to improve Realmuto's poor pitch-framing results. Realmuto was the most productive offensive catcher in the majors last season by a wide margin; on a rate basis, only Wilson Ramos was a better hitter, but Realmuto played more and added value on the bases, which is a quiet reminder that he's an exceptional athlete for a catcher. It was a career year for Realmuto at age 27, with career highs in walks, homers and slugging, while his OBP was just a few points off his career high in that category.
Even though we might expect regression after a player's best year, Realmuto delivered by hitting the ball harder, more often, which seems like a good recipe for sustained success. However, he's a below-average framer, and those missed strikes or extra called balls do matter to a team's run prevention, so the potential boost from adding Realmuto is muted, going from something like 3 wins down to 2. For where the Phillies are in their competitive window, adding Realmuto is smart -- it's a clear improvement at a position where clear improvements are hard to find -- and they did so by perhaps selling high on their top prospect.
For the Miami Marlins, this is a fair return, but I would think a big comedown from their initial expectations and some of the demands they made of other teams -- demands that, in my outsider's opinion, didn't reflect the industry's new emphasis on catcher framing and Realmuto's history of negative framing results. They did land Sanchez, the Phillies' top prospect, an oft-injured, 5-foot-10 20-year-old.
Sanchez's velocity will sit in the 96-101 mph range when he starts, and he throws it for strikes to go with secondary stuff that is all largely inconsistent. He'll show feel for a changeup one night, a promising slider another, enough that you can hope he'll end up a three-pitch starter where the slider is a plus pitch -- and given his arm speed, he really should be able to do this -- and the changeup average or better. But he's been hurt frequently, missing the second half of last year with elbow inflammation and then skipping a planned return in the Arizona Fall League. I have had executives express concerns to me over his elbow and his shoulder, and there's just the general industry skepticism of any short right-hander. He could be a top-end starter if he holds up, and if he cannot handle a starter's workload, he would still have a high potential value in a relief role. He's the Marlins' new No. 1 prospect and he now gives them one player on my top 100.
Alfaro used to be a pretty terrible framer himself, but he worked at it, and the Phillies helped him work at it, so that he's about average now, and he has a cannon of an arm. He's a poor blocker and receiver, leading the National League in passed balls last year while coming in one wild pitch behind the leader in that category. But Alfaro's main issue is and always has been that he's an inveterate hacker at the plate: He drew 12 unintentional walks last year in over 370 plate appearances, and even that is with the benefit of batting eighth most of the time he was in the lineup. He'll play at 26 years old this year, and in over 3,400 professional plate appearances, he has an unintentional walk rate of 4 percent. I hate to say a player can't change, but he's here in his mold. He was about a 1.5- to 2-win player last year and that's probably what he'll be.
Will Stewart is the "other" prospect in the deal, a slight lefty who's a bit of a scouts' favorite and was No. 11 on my Phillies list before the trade. He works with solid-average velocity and comes from a low three-quarters arm slot that gets massive sink on the fastball, so his ground ball rates have been over 60 percent the past two years. His best secondary pitch is a plus changeup, so even with the lower arm slot he hasn't had trouble with right-handed batters. He's a strike-thrower with deception in the delivery that makes it tough for lefties in particular to see the ball from his hand. His breaking stuff is below average, and it's an imperfect arm action that gives some question about durability. A best-case scenario for him would have him mature into a league-average starter, assuming he holds up and finds some kind of average third pitch.