Early last winter, the Boston Red Sox dangled an offer of $100 million to J.D. Martinez. And then the Red Sox waited.
And they waited, through the noisy misdirection of reports of mystery teams. And they waited some more. All along, Red Sox staffers were confident that for as great as Martinez had been in 2017, the industry concerns about his outfield defense would manifest and that their $100 million offer was solid. Finally, with the start of exhibition games looming, Martinez's agent and the Red Sox got down to haggling, to $110 million over five years and an opt-out clause, and the deal was pushed across the finish line Feb. 26.
Those circumstances seem to be at play again for this winter's two most notable free agents, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper
Only Dan Lozano, the agent representing Machado, and Scott Boras, who negotiates on behalf of Harper, know the full range of offers and concepts actually being kicked around by teams. Only they know if there are mystery teams with serious interest, or if the mystery teams are just a product of somebody's imagination, designed to increase leverage with the few clubs fully invested in the pursuit of the two players.
Some executives and agents not involved are watching this closely and, like Wall Street analysts, they are trying to dissect what is happening in this market for two young stars, exactly, and why two 26-year-old star players haven't been introduced at a news conference. Many assume Boras and Lozano aren't hearing what they thought they would hear -- that they are waiting for offers closer to the big numbers long anticipated. Media members have speculated in recent years that Harper and Machado might get well north of $300 million, but as each day passes, doubt about that grows among those who aren't in the room.
A common read from those agents and executives -- who might as well be noshing on popcorn and soda, as if they're taking in a theater cliffhanger, without the surround sound -- is that the Phillies could be in a position of tremendous leverage, and perhaps, like the Red Sox with Martinez, in a position to stick to their respective offers to Harper and Machado.
"If you're the Phillies and you don't believe you have [serious] competition for both of them, you're just sitting and waiting," said one agent. "Even if one of them signs [with another team], the other guy probably needs you, at your number."
Reflecting the growing analyst skepticism about the efficacy of really long-term deals -- eight to 10 years in length -- the Dodgers never seemed to buy into the idea of chasing Harper on an eight-to-10-year deal. The Yankees met with Machado, haven't made an offer, and with the much less costly addition of infielders Troy Tulowitzki and DJ LeMahieu this winter, one source says of a possible Yankees-Machado deal: "That ship has probably sailed."
Some of the executives and agents not involved in the talks also wonder about whether the public entrant of a supposed bidder could be read by the Phillies and White Sox and any other team serious involved as a sign of weakness, rather than strength. In recent days, public reports have linked Harper and Machado to the San Diego Padres, a franchise that doesn't seem close to contention; Harper met with the Padres. "If I'm in [Boras'] position, I'm working like crazy to make sure that doesn't [leak] out," said one club official, "because it smells desperate. It makes it seem like you don't have as much as you thought you would."
One agent said that a team jumping into the conversation this late in the winter might be looking for a bargain -- and that perception doesn't help the negotiation leverage for the player. But a club official added, "The Padres were the team that gave [Eric] Hosmer his deal when it didn't look like anybody else was involved, so Boras has a relationship there. Maybe he can make it work."
Whenever Harper and Machado agree to terms, some executives and agents will look past the details initially reported, under the assumption that there will be opt-outs and deferred money and other smoke-and-mirror elements that might hide what really matters for the industry: The amount of money guaranteed to the players, in present-day value. Those will be the numbers used as new precedent, and industry barometers, just as Alex Rodriguez's 10-year, $252 million deal was almost two decades ago.