In the midst of the American League Championship Series the Houston Astros lost, Jose Altuve sat back in the chair in front of his locker and explained how his knee problem affected him and when the pain was most acute. In the midst of that conversation, Altuve paused and said, "I know who the MVP will be next year."
Really? Who?
"He will," Altuve said, gesturing toward shortstop Carlos Correa, who struggled through back trouble and the worst of his three full seasons in the big leagues in 2018. By Altuve's way of thinking, Correa was destined to charge into his offseason workouts, driven to have a bounce-back season, obsessed with getting back on track.
You could apply Altuve's theory to the rest of the Astros, as well. Early last season, when Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole kept generating zeroes, it looked like Houston might become the first team since the 1998-2000 Yankees to go back-to-back. But in mid-October, the Astros' inconsistent offense and injuries -- and the Boston Red Sox -- took them down.
Many Astros have a lot at stake: Verlander and Cole both will be eligible for free agency in the fall, and at a time when teams seem devoted to paying only for future performance rather than past production, both right-handers could use a catapult into the open market. The 29-year-old George Springer, two years from free agency, is a candidate for a long-term deal. Alex Bregman climbed into the upper echelon of players last season, and armed with his unwavering confidence, he probably believes he can overtake Mike Trout and Mookie Betts for the title of best player on the planet.
The Astros' rotation is going to be a concern, with three-fifths of the 2018 rotation yet to be filled. Lance McCullers Jr. is out for the year after having Tommy John surgery, Charlie Morton signed a two-year deal with the Rays, and Dallas Keuchel is a free agent and unlikely to return. Collin McHugh could move from the bullpen back to the rotation. Lefty Wade Miley signed for 2019, with the Astros intent on refining his cutter. Josh James, who turns 26 in a few days, impressed in his work for the Astros at the end of last season. Houston has high hopes for Forrest Whitley, but Whitley has just a handful of innings in pro ball, and like the Dodgers' Walker Buehler in 2018, he will be limited even if he reaches the big leagues.
The Astros will miss utility man Marwin Gonzalez undoubtedly. But the offense should be better, augmented by the signing of the left-handed-hitting Michael Brantley. The bullpen should be pretty good. And with Cole and Verlander nearing free agency, it seems likely that Astros leadership will do what it needs to do to fill holes with midseason deals, as Houston did with the addition of Verlander.
The Astros are already dangerous; heck, following their championship season of 2017, they won 103 games in the 2018 regular season. They're the pick from here to get back to the World Series -- and beat the Atlanta Braves.
• It remains to be seen whether the San Diego Padres are serious in their effort to land Bryce Harper or Manny Machado and are willing to outbid other suitors, and whether Harper or Machado would be serious about playing in San Diego, at the right price.
But as one evaluator noted, the Padres' late-winter conversations with Harper and Machado are a signal that they are prepared to do something significant -- and it would be something of a surprise at this point if they didn't make another big move before the start of the 2019 season. Harper or Machado would make them better, of course, but just as the timing of their signing of Eric Hosmer seemed off, neither Harper nor Machado would address their most glaring need. The Padres will not be relevant nor a serious threat to challenge the Dodgers in the National League West until they improve their starting pitching.
This is why Keuchel could be an interesting option for San Diego.
"You wonder if the Harper talk might be a run-up to talks about Keuchel," said the evaluator, fully aware that Keuchel, like Harper, is represented by agent Scott Boras.
• A good launching pad for any serious negotiations between Major League Baseball and the players' association could be this: Both sides would be well served to do what they can to eliminate noncompetitive behavior by front offices that have become so good at finding and exploiting loopholes. Two examples, in particular:
1. The practice of tanking isn't good for the players, obviously, because you now have anywhere from five to eight teams willfully staying out of the free-agent market in an effort to pick at or near the top of the draft, taking tens of millions of dollars out of the pile of money that could go to union members.
But tanking isn't good for the teams, either -- and privately, many club executives rage about the practice and hate it, believing that their own sense of competitive integrity puts them at a disadvantage. For some executives, the quandary is like the front-office version of the PED problem that clean players faced a couple of decades ago -- either act with what you believe to be competitive integrity and risk falling behind, or do something you feel is wrong to keep up. The polarity in the standings in recent years seems to be a direct reflection of tanking, and having a group of teams that design their rosters to be terrible is not good for the overall product.
It was a surprise that the union didn't push aggressively for anti-tanking in the most recent collective bargaining talks, and so the players bear some responsibility for the perpetuation of the problem. But this is something the league should work against, as well.
2. Service-time manipulation. The logic behind the service-time decisions is sound, of course. By holding a player in the minor leagues until mid-April, a team can delay the player's journey into free agency by a year; by waiting until mid- to late June to promote a player for the first time, the team can delay arbitration eligibility. That's the business of baseball.
But this particular aspect stinks for the players, for the teams and for the fans. The Toronto Blue Jays' camp should be all about the potential and ascension of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who appears destined to be one of the best hitters of his generation. Instead, there will be dozens of stories about the forthcoming delay to his major league debut. Vlad Jr. could probably hit 1.000 in the exhibition season and yet the Blue Jays will pretend he needs to be sent down for a bit more seasoning. He'll start the year in Triple-A, and if healthy, he'll be promoted during the 2019 season.
If Toronto doesn't do this, the Jays will be at a competitive disadvantage. This is what happened with Kris Bryant, this is what happens with dozens and dozens of players. Everybody knows it.
And everybody knows it stinks, and it doesn't happen in the NBA nor the NFL, two leagues in which there is incentive to get the best and most exciting young players into action. In baseball, the rules create a disincentive, and within the context of a broader discussion about the sport's financial landscape and a possible CBA extension, it would be great if the two sides can find a way to end this practice.
The best idea I've heard: Start a player's clock to free agency the day he's drafted. It could be set at six or seven years for collegians, eight or nine years for high school kids. That way, teams don't benefit from holding a player in the minors; rather, they would want to maximize return from an elite prospect.