The long-rumored trade of Sonny Gray to the Reds came through on Monday, with Gray and minor league reliever Reiver Sanmartin going to Cincinnati, infielder Shed Long going to the Seattle Mariners and outfielder Josh Stowers and a 2019 competitive balance pick (from the Reds) going to the New York Yankees. It's a puzzling deal for the Reds, it adds some value for the Yankees in moving a player they didn't want and I'm not really sure why the Mariners are here, unless Jerry Dipoto was bored.
Gray's tenure in New York was a disaster, but the Reds are hoping that reuniting him with his college pitching coach Derek Johnson -- who came over from the Milwaukee Brewers and was with Gray at Vanderbilt -- will help Gray rediscover his form.
Gray seemed healthy; he was at least throwing as hard as ever, although the Yankees had him go away from throwing his fastball in favor of a cutter/curveball approach that didn't work well for him. Gray is listed at 5-foot-10 -- sure, Jan -- and has had issues with the long ball when he doesn't get the fastball down enough; last year, he got killed by homers on pitches he left a few inches above or below the belt. His curveball was a hammer in college and in his first two seasons with the Oakland Athletics, but it has been gradually less effective since then, and Johnson would be the first person I'd ask to figure out why.
The bigger question for Gray and the Reds is the ballpark. Gray was awful at Yankee Stadium last year, allowing 11 homers in 59⅓ innings for a 6.98 ERA; on the road, his entire line was better, from strikeouts to walks to homers allowed (three), with a 3.17 ERA in 71 innings. Maybe Yankee Stadium, which can be homer-friendly, spooked him -- but the Reds' home park is more homer-friendly, and it's not a great place to be a fly ball pitcher.
Gray has kept his ground ball rates at 50 percent or higher in every year of his career, but when he gives up something in the air, the results are a lot worse than average, and that has been consistent over the past three years now. I don't think that's just the ballpark, although I'm sure it hasn't helped; I think it's a question of execution, of getting those pitches higher or lower in the strike zone, which he did more in Oakland prior to 2016.
The Reds signed Gray to a three-year extension that looks very team-friendly if he's even a fringe-average starter who can throw 150 innings a year. It's not a bad deal for him if he just wanted some security for himself; but if he gets even partway back to his old self, the Reds will have a very tradable asset in his contract.
My question for the Reds on this deal, though, is why now: They're not likely to contend in a tough division this year -- although Chicago Cubs fans must be wondering when their front office is going to do something significant -- and I don't see Gray pushing them over the top in the next few seasons. If the deal didn't cost the Reds their second draft pick, with pool value probably around $2 million, I'd say it was great. That pick has a lot of value, especially to a lower-revenue team like the Reds. They can take an extra player there, but more importantly, they can reallocate some of that pool value to go over slot somewhere and grab a first-round talent who slipped. The draft is still the best value in baseball, where teams like the Reds can get a star for a fraction of what he'll be worth in the first six years of his career. Losing that pick stings, even if, at the moment, its value seems too abstract to matter.
The Reds also picked up the lefty Sanmartin, a low-slot reliever who kills left-handed batters (.154/.195/.167) and rarely walks anyone but is very vulnerable to right-handers and is probably a specialist, if anything.
Neither Long nor Stowers was in my top 10s for their respective organizations.
Long is a well below-average defensive second baseman who has some pop at the plate but looks like he'll have contact issues as he moves up. Long is listed at 5-foot-8 and 184 pounds, so he's a little guy with a big swing who gets locked into a grooved path that can drive the ball when he connects but would seem to make him vulnerable to breaking stuff, especially down and away. He is a 55-grade runner with a 78 percent success rate on the bases over the last three seasons, but that speed hasn't translated into good range at second, and he has hands of stone out there. The bat is still interesting, since he has produced a little over the past few years and been young for his leagues, but there aren't many Dustin Pedroias out there, and Long probably has to move to left field.
Stowers is not very advanced for his age, with tools but not much in the way of instincts; scouts who saw him in pro ball say he might have to move to a corner. He's quick-twitch with bat speed and good hand strength; his path to the ball is short, but he can get very uphill, which gives pitchers a lot of ways to attack him. He is probably a fourth outfielder, but if his overall feel for the game, hitting and fielding comes along, there is everyday player ceiling. He also doesn't have to go on the 40-man for a few more years, which further helps the Yankees as they have a wave of minor league pitchers who will need to be protected after 2019 or 2020.