Whenever negotiations for big-name free agents drag out, in the way they have for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, inevitably the mystery team is invoked. Maybe it's based on speculation, as competing agents and club executives and reporters trade guesses about whether a team is quietly stalking to add a star.
And sometimes, the mystery team is very real, perhaps because of some hidden development, or because an owner or general manager becomes enamored of a strong talent lingering unsigned.
Executives and agents and analysts are privately swapping thoughts on which team, if any, might be poised to strike for Harper or Machado.
In the winter of 2003-04, for example, it appeared the Rangers' efforts to move Alex Rodriguez were all but dead. He had a full no-trade clause and talks between Texas and the Red Sox had collapsed, after the players' association would not consent to the contractual concessions Boston asked for, because of the precedent that would establish. But then Aaron Boone, then the Yankees' third baseman, blew out his knee playing basketball, setting off a series of events that led to Rodriguez getting traded to New York.
Prince Fielder's free agency dragged out deep into January 2012, and folks in the industry wondered if his agent, Scott Boras, was stuck, with no place to get a big deal. But Victor Martinez suffered a significant knee injury working out on a treadmill, the Tigers had a sudden need for a hitter, and on Jan. 26, the Tigers and Fielder concluded a $214 million contract.
When Albert Pujols was a free agent and St. Louis' talks for the slugger fell apart, it was unclear which team might be willing to spend the type of money his agent, Dan Lozano, had sought. But in a crazy 36-hour window, the Angels jumped into the talks and quickly agreed to a $240 million deal.
There have been other cases, as well, when mystery teams didn't emerge -- like last winter, when the Red Sox offered J.D. Martinez $100 million in a five-year deal ... and then waited. And in late February, despite reports of a mystery team, Boston signed Martinez to a deal close to its initial offer -- $110 million.
Harper has drawn interest from the Nationals and Phillies, and perhaps more measured interest from the Dodgers and White Sox. Sources say Machado has an offer of $175 million in hand from the White Sox -- Lozano, his agent, released a statement Wednesday evening indicating this information is inaccurate -- and at least some interest from the Phillies and the Yankees.
As this plays out, these are some of the clubs drawing speculation from insiders as possibly a mystery team.
For Harper, the Astros. They negotiated a trade for the slugger before the July 31 deadline, before the Nationals pulled Harper off the table. They are in their window to win right now, with George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa all in their prime years, and with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole each entering a final season before reaching free agency. "They've got the money, for sure," said one rival official.
A caveat mentioned by rival officials is they cannot see Astros GM Jeff Luhnow agreeing to a whopper of a decade-long contract, given the growing industry concerns over that type of arrangement. But on a short-term deal with opt-outs, perhaps. Can you imagine the lineup the Astros would field?
CF Springer
LF Harper
2B Altuve
3B Bregman
DH Michael Brantley
SS Correa
1B Yuli Gurriel
C Robinson Chirinos/Max Stassi
RF Josh Reddick
That would be fun to watch (although opposing pitchers might disagree).
For Machado, the Yankees. It might seem odd to have the Yankees as a mystery team, but they are certainly poised to move on, if they choose to do so. They added Troy Tulowitzki to play shortstop, they signed DJ LeMahieu to be their superutility Ben Zobrist, and they believe Miguel Andujar will improve defensively at third base. But if the market has backed up on Machado into a financial realm that's more comfortable, it's possible the Yankees could restart their seemingly dormant conversations with him.
For Harper, the Giants. He makes a lot of sense for a lot of reasons, mostly to help create a bridge of talent beyond the group of older, ring-laden Giants like Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford. But it does seem unlikely, as Farhan Zaidi works to remake the team's farm system and address a payroll filled with expensive and aged players, his first move would be to sign perhaps the priciest player available.
For Harper or Machado, the Rangers or Twins. They are mentioned by rival officials and agents mostly because they have the payroll flexibility and could make that kind of move if they wanted to do so.
For Harper, the Braves. They have a need to fill in the outfield, and their parent company, Liberty Media, could afford that kind of contract. But Liberty has generally operated with very tight, limited budgets, and it's hard to imagine Atlanta taking on a player who would absorb 20 to 25 percent of its payroll.
For Machado, the Padres. San Diego hasn't had a winning season in a long, long time, and the Padres' ownership has been looking for a way to goose the rebuilding process, which is why they signed first baseman Eric Hosmer last year. But the Padres' priority seems to be pitching.
For Machado or Harper, the Cubs. Either player would augment the lineup, of course, but the Cubs have made no secret of the fact that they are conducting baseball business with little to no flexibility in their budget. Could one of the world's wealthiest sports franchises afford either player without going bankrupt? Of course. Are the Cubs willing to blow up their budget to make this happen? Sure doesn't seem like it.
The mystery over mystery teams lives on.