The membership of the Hall of Fame grew to 329 on Tuesday with the announcement that unanimous selection Mariano Rivera, Edgar Martinez, Roy Halladay and Mike Mussina were named on at least 75 percent of BBWAA ballots submitted in this year's election process. They join veterans committee selections Lee Smith and Harold Baines, giving us our second consecutive six-man class, which will be inducted at the Clark Sports Center in Cooperstown, New York, in July.
No matter what your particular beef may be with the Hall, the writers, the process or the players up for election, Tuesday was a happy day. Four worthy candidates were added to baseball's most exclusive club, candidates representing three countries. Or four, if you include all those proud Canadians who rooted for Halladay during his salad days in Toronto. For them and the rest of is, Halladay's election is bittersweet because of his tragically early death in November 2017 at the age of 40.
While the focus should be on those who made it, not everything we learned on Tuesday was good news for everyone. Nor was the all good news simply about the quartet that got over the vote threshold. Every Hall announcement carries with it ramifications for baseball history as a whole, and for those who will appear on the ballot in the years to come.
With that in mind, let's sort through the winners and losers from Tuesday's news.
LOSERS: All of us.
Mostly this is because of Halladay, one of the most admired pitchers of his time. He was a true throwback, the last of the ace pitchers who not only gave lip service to the idea of completing games, but backed it up with his performance on the mound. He won a Cy Young Award in both leagues. He threw a no-hitter in the postseason. Only Warren Spahn had more seasons of owning at least a share of the highest complete games total in his league. Halladay did it seven times to Spahn's nine. Halladay is perhaps the last pitcher whose résumé will include anything about complete games as a bullet point.
We all lose out because Halladay will not be around to participate in induction weekend, and won't speak to the thousands gathered on the lawn behind the Clark Sports Complex. But it will be a time to remember him and what he meant to those close to him, and those of us who weren't close but were so enamored of what he could do on the mound. It will be the very definition of bittersweet.
Aside from Halladay, we also have lost because this has been a particularly ugly season of Hall debate. This is crazy. Sports debates are supposed to be fun, something that we can invest ourselves in knowing that in the grand scheme of things, they really aren't that important. Yet as with so many other areas of contemporary life, civility and decorum seem to have gone the way of rotary telephones. It's like everybody has turned into George Costanza.
The nature of social media has a lot to do with this, of course. Rather than becoming a vessel for engagement, it too often is one of anonymous attack. It really doesn't have to be this way.
WINNERS: Fans of one-team Hall of Famers.
Rivera never pitched for anyone other than the New York Yankees. Martinez never batted for anyone other than the Seattle Mariners. With them now headed for Cooperstown, that raises the number of one-team Hall of Famers to 54.
Every franchise deserves to have an icon such as that, figures that fans of a team can rally around for generations, ones they get to call all their own. Obviously, given the nature of free agency and the recent trend toward jettisoning players when they near the end of their controllable years, the chances of this list growing much longer have been kneecapped. The odds have always been stacked against this, even during the days of the reserve clause. Heck, even Babe Ruth played for three different teams.
The Yankees have more members of this class than anyone, with Rivera becoming the eighth. On the other hand, Martinez becomes the first career Mariner in Cooperstown, which reduces the list of franchises without a one-team Hall of Famer to 10. Of course, that's still one-third of the fan bases in baseball who don't have this sort of icon. Let's run through everyone:
Yankees (8): Mariano Rivera, Earle Combs, Bill Dickey, Joe DiMaggio, Whitey Ford, Mickey Mantle, Lou Gehrig and Phil Rizzuto.
Well, you have a starter (Ford), a reliever (Rivera), three outfielders (Combs, Mantle, DiMaggio), a catcher (Dickey; would be two if Yogi Berra hadn't played four games for the Mets in 1965), and two infielders (Rizzuto and Gehrig). Next year, Derek Jeter will bring this group up to nine members and add a third infielder. So the Yankees are one infielder away from being able to list a complete lineup of one-team Hall of Famers. The watch begins for Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres. No pressure, guys.
Dodgers (5): Pee Wee Reese, Roy Campanella, Sandy Koufax, Don Drysdale and Jackie Robinson.
With his contract extension this offseason, Clayton Kershaw remains a strong candidate to join this club, and Kenley Jansen may be one as well.
Giants (5): Carl Hubbell, Ross Youngs, Travis Jackson, Mel Ott and Bill Terry.
A good total, but all of these were New York Giants. We're still looking for our first San Francisco Giant in this club. The best current hopes would be Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey.
Red Sox (4): Bobby Doerr, Jim Rice, Ted Williams and Carl Yastrzemski.
Of the current Sox, it's still possible that Dustin Pedroia could join this group. Here's hoping for a comeback campaign in 2019. Mookie Betts? Well, sure, but let's give it a few years.
Pirates (4): Roberto Clemente, Bill Mazeroski, Willie Stargell and Pie Trayner.
Things will have to change if the Pirates are ever going to add to this list. If the Pirates wouldn't go all out in keeping Andrew McCutchen in the fold, will they do it for anybody?
Tigers (3): Alan Trammell, Charlie Gehringer and Al Kaline.
Au revoir, Justin Verlander.
White Sox (3): Luke Appling, Red Faber and Ted Lyons.
The ChiSox are past due to for an addition to this list. Maybe they should sign Eloy Jimenez to a lifetime contract right now.
Reds (3): Johnny Bench, Barry Larkin and Bid McPhee.
Could very well be joined someday by Joey Votto.
Orioles/Browns (3): Jim Palmer, Brooks Robinson and Cal Ripken Jr.
With Manny Machado gone, there isn't a current Oriole on this particular radar. The poor St. Louis Browns never did get a Brownie-exclusive Hall of Famer before their relocation to Baltimore. George Sisler, the most likely candidate, finished his career with the Dodgers.
Indians (3): Bob Feller, Addie Joss and Bob Lemon.
If the Indians don't trade Corey Kluber and he keeps Klue-botting for a few more years, you never know. He was drafted by the Padres, but for our purposes here, we're only considering time in the big leagues. Of course, Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor both have had Hall-worthy starts to their respective careers. But even if they stay on track, will Cleveland be able to keep them?
Cardinals (2): Bob Gibson and Stan Musial.
It's kind of shocking that the Redbirds have just two members in the club. For one thing, they are one of the most successful franchises in baseball history. Beyond that, they are also historically revered for their farm systems and homegrown talent. The fact that St. Louis has just two players of this sort simply illustrates how tough it is to end up with such an icon. Few players/coaches/managers have been as associated with one franchise as much as Red Schoendienst was with the Cardinals. He even grew up in Cardinals territory. But even he played for another team, helping the Milwaukee Braves to the 1957 World Series title. However, someday, Yadier Molina could join Gibson and Musial as St. Louis-exclusive immortals.
Twins/Senators (2): Kirby Puckett and Walter Johnson.
The Big Train belongs more to Washington than Minnesota. In fact, I've yet to be able to document whether Johnson ever stepped foot in the state of Minnesota. Nevertheless, the Twins will always have Puckett. They'll always have Joe Mauer, as well, who just headed into retirement as a Twin Cities native who never spent a day with another franchise. His Hall case will likely spur a lot of debate over the next few years.
Astros (2): Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio.
Houston is the only franchise outside of the original 16, post-1901 clubs with more than one member in the group. There also are almost certainly multiple future Hall of Famers on the current Astros roster. So far, Alex Bregman, George Springer and Carlos Correa have only appeared for the Astros, but it's early for them. However, Jose Altuve is further along and if the Astros can keep him around, he is a strong bet to eventually join Bagwell and Biggio in Cooperstown.
These six franchises each have one member in the one-team Hall-of-Famer club: Mariners (Edgar Martinez), Braves (Chipper Jones), Cubs (Ernie Banks), Phillies (Mike Schmidt), Brewers (Robin Yount), Padres (Tony Gwynn) and Royals (George Brett).
The best current candidates from these teams are Freddie Freeman (Braves), Kris Bryant (Cubs, but, you know, Scott Boras is his agent), Ryan Braun (Brewers) and Salvador Perez (Royals). All of them are long shots, either because of their Hall cases or because they may end up playing elsewhere someday. Freeman is the mostly likely to both get in, and stick with his current team. If he made it through the Braves' rebuild, he seems as likely as anyone to retire in that uniform.
That leaves 10 franchises with zero all-their-own Hall of Famers. Here are eight of them: Nationals/Expos (hence their need to attach themselves to Walter Johnson), Diamondbacks (sad face for Paul Goldschmidt), Rockies (but Todd Helton is on the ballot), Mets (maybe David Wright?), Marlins (sigh...), Rangers/Senators, Blue Jays and Rays (double sigh...). Given the modern realities of player movement, will any of these teams ever get a member of this club?
One of the other missing teams is kind of incredible, that being the Oakland/Kansas City/Philadelphia Athletics, the only O-16 franchise without a rep. There have been many, many Hall of Famers to have worn the A's uniform, but they all wore others, as well. This is a result of the Connie Mack-Charles Finley-Bay Area lineage. Money has always been a problem for this franchise.
Finally, there is the Angels. For fans of the one-team Hall of Famer, the message is clear: Do not free Mike Trout.
LOSERS: Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, as well as Gary Sheffield, Manny Ramirez, Sammy Sosa, et al.
What really is there left to say? For Bonds and Clemens there was some movement, but the creep is slow. If the Hall does not want those players represented in the Plaque Gallery -- and they've never explicitly expressed this -- you have to think that neither would be any more likely to get in with a near-future veterans committee. Maybe decades down the line, but what good does that do anybody?
What we need is for more of the game's greats to speak out like Reggie Jackson did, though it would have been more helpful if the straw had stirred the drink before the deadline for submitting ballots had passed. As long as Bonds and Clemens appear on the ballot without being selected, we all lose.
WINNERS: Larry Walker, Fred McGriff and Curt Schilling.
Walker's jump from just 34 percent of the ballots last year in his second-to-last year of eligibility strongly suggests that he's on the Martinez track, or at least something close it. With a modest gain, Walker would have looked like a long shot for his 10th year, but now he looks more like a shoo-in, especially because Jeter is the only no-brainer that stands out among next year's first-time eligibles. Not only does it seem likely that Walker gets in next year, but we can look forward to a lot of interesting, granular work on Coors Field park factors over the next year.
McGriff's case is a little different. This was his 10th year, so he will quietly leave the BBWAA ballot without having ever reached the 50 percent mark. More than anyone, McGriff has suffered from the overstuffed ballots of recent seasons and, by extension, the fallout from the PED-related logjam. Now that he's done with the BBWAA window, the never-expiring clock now starts on his eligibility for consideration by a veterans committee. He'll be under the microscope of the Today's Game Era committee, which will meet next at the 2021 winter meetings. McGriff will be a strong candidate.
For Schilling, leaving aside the non-baseball controversies associated with him, the move from 51 percent to around 60 is a great sign for his candidacy, and he still has three more whacks at it. Schilling's performance record has always been intrinsically tied to that of Mussina, with many making the reasonable case that if you vote for one, you should probably vote for both. Obviously many writers didn't do that, but now that Mussina is in, that clears the path for Schilling.
LOSERS: Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, Michael Young and Miguel Tejada.
It's cameo appearance for all of these first-time eligibles on the ballot, all of whom failed to reach the five percent minimum required to stay on the ballot. Are any of them Hall of Famers? Probably not, though you can build argument for Berkman. Nevertheless, all of them accomplished enough in the big leagues to deserve better than a one-and-done fate.
WINNERS: Fans of the designated hitter.
With Martinez and Baines both headed for Cooperstown, we now have our first two Hall-of-Fame DHs. Unless we don't. The criteria for this isn't exactly clear, but that seems to be the case.
Currently, there are two Hall of Famers who DH'd in at least 40 percent of their career games: Paul Molitor and Frank Thomas. The Hall of Fame lists both of those players at other positions. Molitor is in at third base, while Thomas is in at first. Thomas actually DH'd in 57 percent of his career games. Here is the list of career WAR leaders among those who DH'd at least 40 percent of the time, per baseball-reference.com:
1. Paul Molitor (75.7 WAR)
2. Frank Thomas (73.9)
3. Edgar Martinez (68.4)
4. David Ortiz (55.3)
5. Jose Canseco (42.5)
6. Harold Baines (38.7)
7. Chili Davis (38.2)
If you raise the threshold to 50 percent, you lose Molitor, Canseco and Davis from the list. If you go to 60 percent, then you also lose Thomas and Baines, leaving just Martinez and Ortiz.
What is the right threshold? Rather than percentage of appearances, maybe it would be better to consider when players produced the most value. With that in mind, here is the 40 percent list again, along with how much WAR they produced during seasons in which DH was their primary position:
1. Paul Molitor (75.7 total WAR, 25.8 WAR produced in DH seasons)
2. Frank Thomas (73.9/33.8)
3. Edgar Martinez (68.4/46.5)
4. David Ortiz (55.3/54.5)
5. Jose Canseco (42.5/14.8)
6. Harold Baines (38.7/24.5)
7. Chili Davis (38.2/18.1)
Only Martinez and Baines recorded more than half of their career value during seasons in which they were primarily designated hitters. So if you want to say that Martinez and Baines are the Hall's first designated hitters, you're probably more right than not. This development has obvious relevance for Ortiz, whom we'll get to in a bit.
LOSERS: Billy Wagner, Andruw Jones, Scott Rolen, Jeff Kent and Omar Vizquel.
There wasn't much movement on these players, who all have reasonable Hall cases without the baggage of an association with PEDs. While this was just Vizquel's second year on the ballot, this may hurt him more than the rest, because the closer you look at his record, the less he looks like a Hall of Famer. He needs to sneak in sooner than later. Next year may be the key for some of these players.
Here are the top 10 eligibles on next year's likely ballot according to JAWS: 1. Bonds (117.8), 2. Clemens (102.8), 3. Schilling (64.1), 4. Walker (58.7), 5. Jeter (57.4), 6. Rolen (56.9), 7. Ramirez (54.7), 8. Jones (54.7), 9. Helton (53.9), 10. Sosa (51.2).
Kent is at No. 15, but that's behind Ramirez, Sosa and Sheffield, whose support is likely to continue to flounder.
WINNERS: The "big Hall" crowd.
As mentioned, we have six new Hall of Famers for the second straight year. The 12-enshrinee total for the last two years is the highest since 1999-2000, leaving out the 2006 induction of 17 greats from the Negro Leagues. The five-year total is 23, the highest total for a similar time span (leaving aside that mass induction of 2006) since 1978. According to ESPN Stats & Info, this is the first time the BBWAA has elected four players in consecutive classes. The writers' five-year total of 17 is a new record, breaking the mark set just last year.
LOSER and WINNER: Big Papi
With the addition of Baines and Martinez and, for that matter, of Rivera and Smith, the debate about the role of role players in the Hall is settled business. They have a place. That bodes well for David Ortiz, who battled Martinez for the title of best DH of all time. In that sense, Ortiz was a winner on Tuesday.
At the same time, there remain enough hard-line PED dissenters to keep Bonds and Clemens -- two of the greatest players ever -- out of Cooperstown. Some of them explicitly say that they won't vote for anyone with so much as a suspicion. Well, Ortiz's name was in fact listed as a suspected PED user years ago on a report that was supposed to be confidential and which is of questionable validity. To hold that against Ortiz would be crazy. And it does seems unlikely that the lovable Papi will be dragged down by that list when he becomes eligible in 2022.
The question is: Just how hard line are these hard-liners?